Originally posted by jbpatzer
Well, his stats were tight-aggressive, so I would expect him to either commit there or fold, probably 3betting KK, AA and folding AQ, KQ, AT. If he calls, I think it's the flush draw or a straight draw.
IMO:
assuming that he is solid tight-aggr plr for those limits (hence he has a brain and some sort of idea what he is doing ...
why should he commit his AA, KK, AQ, KQ (same relative hand strength - bluff catch vs air or combo draws. value hands u raise are better than top pair here.) and why should he fold? he has a reasonable bluff catch hand so 3betting turn in his spot doesnt make sense without any special aggro dynamic (there are def scenarios where it makes sense ... just not here!)
so if he 3b turn, he is clearly isolating himself vs 2pair+ - doesnt make sense
folding vs your rly small raise also doesnt make sense. u could be a fishy reg who just tries a cheap (semi-)bluff or u turn your bottom pair into a bluff or w/e.
so calling is his best option in his mind.
hence, i absolutely dont think u can say "when he calls my small turn raise oop, he never has a [1pair] made hand, he always has a draw. def many made hands in his range. and the river is a rly nice card for some of his made hands. and even is he has KK or AA or AQ
ITS FKN NL50! ppl are not known for their ability to make huge folds. they click call and afterwards tell their friends "bvb, he is loose here, i have to call. river: yeah unlucky, ran into top of his range"
when in fact your range is 2pair+ here 95% and suicide bluffs when u had to much tequila before the session 5%
to make it short:
- raise turn way bigger
- vbet river healthy and fold vs a raise cuz he is a) never bluffing and b) never value raising worse
The funny thing is that I pretty much agreed with you until I read TwiceT's post... a testament to my fishy critical thinking in poker. Of course, there is never a wrong analysis, and you also said things that makes sense. Keep going strong! It seems like you're starting to pwn NL25 now, the only question that arises is if you shouldn't start making a transition from rush to normal non-sicko-action SH since black friday? Dunno how rush tables are, but I can't imagine they're totally unaffected. Of course, being a sucker for promotions, you're probably grinding out the rush ring game tickets.
nicely said
