Mind Games

Originally posted by VorpalF2F
However when I looked today at HOW I played that day, after the first few shellackings, I was playing tentatively, check/calling after draw etc.

So even though I was not getting the hands, I was not playing my best either. I should read my tag line more often.

It's funny because I find out something similar. After losing session when I think it’s happen because of variance and I make a SR usually I find out how much mistakes I’ve made. Variance may have impact on game but I don’t think it has a huge impact on micro limits when opponents are bad.

I had an interesting couple of sessions this evening.

I had to play some 5CD-$0.20 as well as 5CD-$0.50, due to a lack of traffic.

I don't mind though, because I think if FINALLY caught on to something of MAJOR importance.

If you are most likely ahead BET FFS!!!

I *think* -- but can't be sure -- that passive play is a last holdover from my insane monkey tilt days.

It is not a question of whether there is variance or whether it is bad play that kept my winrate down, the fact is there IS AND ALWAYS WILL BE variance

i must embrace the variance, and MAKE IT WORK FOR ME

jb claims to have a coin that lands heads 52% of the time.

I have 33xxx in the small blind, which is better than 52% vs anyone in the BB, so IT IS A CRIME TO FOLD, LIMP OR DO ANYTHING OTHER THAN BET

Well, unless you're limping something even bigger to play possum or whatever.

Now at NL 25, embracing variance will look a little different.
But as it happens, I got a bit frisky tonight, and had a session that saw me win 4 BI and lose 5. Win, lose, lose, Win, lose, Win, lose, win, lose.

I wasn't pretty, but it was the most fun I had playing poker in quite a while.

Afterwards, I played some more 5CD vs a pack of bluff-happy insane spew monkeys. I tooks dere munnies -- that was fun too.

Best of luck!
--VS

If you've never seen a moonrise in the southern hemisphere, now's your chance

I knew that it had to rise right-to-left looking east, but it still looks very strange.
MisClick -- how long did it take you to get used to moon- and sun-rises going left-to-right?

So now I'm embracing variance.
I've been looking for spots where a player is making a statement that is not believable, then making bets that force them to "shit or get off the pot" as the saying goes.

In this hand, villain has been giving me a rash with 3Bets and pot-size post-flop bets, and has pushed several players off pots.

At this point, (40-60 or so hands) he is running about 30/24/20/12
Party, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players

BB: $36.14 (144.6 bb)
Hero (SB): $30.99 (124 bb)
BTN: $32 (128 bb)
CO: $43.97 (175.9 bb)
MP: $9.74 (39 bb)
UTG: $7.15 (28.6 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 8:s A:d
3 folds, BTN raises to $0.75, Hero raises to $2.60, BB folds, BTN raises to $5.25, Hero calls $2.65

Flop: ($10.75) J:c J:s 2:c (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $6.70, Hero raises to $24.50, BTN folds

My own image is fairly tight -- I steal a fair bit though.
I *think* I'm one of those players about whom they advice is, "Keep betting until they raise, then fold".

Seems to work.

It seems v strange to me though, that only a few months or so ago, I got extremely nervous making $10 bets, let alone $25 bluffs. Mind you in the above hand, I think I was very likely ahead here. I don't give him credit for a hand at all.

$25 is 5 times the daily wage of my first full-time job.

In this next hand, I'm the one telling a story that is total BS, but I hope it is believable. Besides which I have equity of my own, and a big stack.
The big stack seems to lend authority to your bets. I don't know if it REALLY makes a difference, but it seems to.

BTN was nothing special, but had an AF of 9.

Party, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players

Hero (BB): $41.19 (164.8 bb)
CO: $17.50 (70 bb)
SB: $21.19 (84.8 bb)
BTN: $25 (100 bb)
MP: $19.04 (76.2 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J:s K:h
2 folds, BTN raises to $0.50, SB calls $0.40, Hero calls $0.25

Some players on NL 25 on Party like to min-raise/shove with monsters, so I have taken to flatting them in the BB

Flop: ($1.50) 8:s J:h Q:h (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, BTN bets $1.07, SB folds, Hero calls $1.07

Turn: ($3.64) 2:c (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $2.59, Hero calls $2.59

River: ($8.82) A:h (2 players)
Hero bets $6.28, BTN folds

I think I should have potted the River, rather than 3/4, but it did the trick.
I have the K of H, so even if he has a low flush he may not want to proceed.

My guess here is that -- like me -- he has a piece of this flop, but not a big piece.

I have had to give up a few of these, so it is quite a bit more costly than just folding on the flop, but ( so far ) overall it seems to be worthwhile.

Even a fair coin's results can be manipulated if you toss it by hand. Try starting with the same face showing each time and practice tossing it as close to the same height as you can, then catch it on the back of one hand and covering it with the other. I used to predict the result for beers. ♠_evil:

Embracing the variance is something I've been working on this year but it isn't easy to do for longer periods with a smile lol. As for the JK hand, it's 'standard' to fold there at nl4/10, who wants to go broke with top pair? I'm trying to find spots like these where I can pressure people as well, but obviously villain specific.
As for having a bigger stack, I find villain's want to be in pots with me a bit more to 'get' me so to speak, but that was a brave bet in my eyes with the A8, what you can rep there I'm not sure, but you seem to know what you're about.

Originally posted by VorpalF2F
If you've never seen a moonrise in the southern hemisphere, now's your chance

I knew that it had to rise right-to-left looking east, but it still looks very strange.
MisClick -- how long did it take you to get used to moon- and sun-rises going left-to-right?

lol, how funny, I forgot about that. I got to this side of the planet in August 1999. We were a bunch of students at Fribourg doing a 3 month french course before we went to our respective universities. We used to go out a lot at night, and we were all quite impressed by how different the moon looked. Actually we understood why you talk about the moon having a face (like a human face). We don't see a face on the moon like the one you do. Ours has big eyes with big eyelashes and it is looking forward, while yours have a somewhat sad face and it is more of a profile, and ours take some strongish will to see a face in order to see it.

Sun: I still haven't learned left and right. I mean, I know the difference theoretically, of course, but it takes me a while (in particular when driving) to work out the right right and the right left. I was lucky enough to have my driving test taken by someone who thought I might not know the english word for them as I had an accent so he asked me: 'shall I say 'left/right' or do you rather have me pointing out the direction?' That was a driving test saver Apart from that, I suppose it wouldn't really feel much different, as I never know where the north/south is. So unless you have a very strong sense of north/south direction I suppose it won't feel much different.

Here is more crowded though.

Hey V,

Nice to see some 25nl hands!

My thoughts:

In the first hand the best tactic you can use against an habitual 3 Bettor is to leave the table. Unless you have Fishies elsewhere on the table if a pain in the ass has position on you, why stay?

As played I like the super strong line you took with A8 - Call the 4bet OOP and Ck/Shove the Flop - which was about as good as it gets for that move. What would you have done on a KT9 Flop?
But, as a word of caution, good Aggro players make a lot of money by forcing the Regs to play back at them and then them having a strong hand i.e. if this play is repeated an orbit or two later, his range will be a lot stronger.

The KJ is screaming out for a squeeze pre.
I'm not sure about the Donk line as you clearly have showdown value but turn your hand into a bluff by the end. The board is so wet and slams into such a big part of a all ranges I think it's a bit risky.
The only hand you can have at the end that makes sense is KThh and perhaps 9Thh. Sets, 2pairs and Str8s hate that card.
The question I would ask is: Are you Value Betting or Bluffing the Flop, Turn, and River?
If you're going to be that Agrro Post why not be more Aggro Pre which is likely to be more +EV

+1 for the Aggro lines though ♠_evil:

Hope this helps, but I'm still finding my way at this level too.

Originally posted by gadget51
what you can rep there I'm not sure,
but you seem to know what you're about.

I *could* have a J, 22 etc, but in this hand, I'm actually believing Ax is ahead, and since I'm really rather nitty AA, KK, QQ AA+ make sense too.

I really DON'T know what I'm about -- I'm feeling my way, and trying different things. Had he called me, I would just write this one off, and play to my new image.

I would NOT do this on a table where I have a looser image, or against a player that I don't think will be able to fold.

Originally posted by trickybob
the best tactic you can use against an habitual 3 Bettor is to leave the table

Problem is, at Party, at the time I play, most tables have waiting lists, and I'm likely to end up facing him at the next table too.

I WILL leave the table if the blinds like defending, because I make a fair bit of my profit from stealing.

On the KJ hand, I did not even think of squeezing tbh.
I haven't yet done a bluff squeeze, and I'm not comfortable with how big to make the bet.

Also, minraises from a player who normally raise 3x make me nervous.
They often seem to be inducing a raise so they can 4Bet.

.I'm not sure what you mean about the donk line.
I played c/c on F & T
I would have likely checked down the river, but when the A hit, I decided to give it a shot. I rep the A, the made flush, and straights are possible too.
If I'm going to bluff, I must lead out, since if he leads, I don't have enough value to call, and if he checks back, I could possibly be second best.

I'll look for squeeze spots tonight.

Yeah I see it now. My mistake, obviously no donk.

I now like the line taken a lot more.

I don't think the squeeze is a bluff, you will very often have the best hand all be it there will be some raggy aces in both players ranges. The idea is two fold, win pre or have initiative if called. Folding to a 4bet is easy too.

It was another up day on both 5-Card Draw and NL 25

The $0.50 limit on 5-Card Draw is not terribly different than the $0.20 tbh.
A lot of the same players, really.

Some new moves, though:
♦  Limp with pat hands I saw this almost never before. Trouble is, they look pretty stupid when it gets folded around to the BB who checks and folds to the CBet.
♦  Raising in the BTN with total air, drawing 1 and CBetting hoping for a fold either pre or post-draw.

I'm not likely to use either much -- but several players really like these moves.
So noted. I have done them both, but in neither case did my hand get shown, so not worth much for image building...

I played my NL 25 session tonight pretty TAG, 19/14/11/2 and made no substantial turn/river bluffs.

I played 360 hands, up 1.5 BI.
In comparison, last night I was up 1.0 BI in only 300 hands.
But the REALLY interesting statistic is that playing LAG, I got double the PartyPoints -- err, I mean paid double the rake...

According to HM2, I had 9 squeeze opportunities.
I wanted to do my squeeze bluff from the BTN, but nothing was too my liking.
I suppose I COULD squeeze 92s but I just folded it.

Do we REALLY need to be making those plays at NL 25?
Image schmimage -- do they even notice?

I did squeeze once:
Party, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 3 Players

Hero (BB): $25 (100 bb)
BTN: $26.68 (106.7 bb)
SB: $7.75 (31 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K:c A:c
BTN raises to $1, SB calls $0.90, Hero raises to $4.20, BTN folds, SB calls $3.20

Flop: ($9.40) T:s 6:d 4:c (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($9.40) 9:c (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

River: ($9.40) K:s (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

Results:

I suppose I could have bet anywhere down the line, but his range is so wide -- including all manner of pocket pairs and other garbage that beats me, I just though I'd check behind as long he was willing to check ahead of me.

By the time I hit a pair on the river, I just wanted to see what was worth $4.00 pre-flop that wasn't worth a stab afterwards.

He might have had the same idea...

Month-End Review
5-Card Draw
In January I suffered a major downswing, but was able to recognize the mistakes I made as a result of the downswing, and separate those mistakes from the downswing itself.

Through it all, I have not tilted.
Shell-shocked maybe, but not tilted...

I hit 50,000 $0.10/$0.20 5-Card Draw hands in January, and have moved up to $0.25/$0.50, with no ill effects (so far).

NL 25
I've been playing short 200-500 hand sessions, max 4 tables.
I'm trying for 10 Party Pts per session which means I'll be able to clear the first instalment of my bonus, with enough time left over to pick up a few pending bonuses.

Tomorrow I will re-read "The Mental Game of Poker", and evaluate my current state, and pick another aspect to work on.

Note: The video adds nothing. Close your eyes, Get comfy. Enjoy.

Peace,
--VS

Saturdays are so unkind!
Feral Cow Poker
PokerStars Limit 5 Card Draw $0.25/$0.50 - 6 players

Button: $1.76
SB: $3.52
BB: $8.57
UTG: $9.70 (Hero)
UTG+1: $10.05
CO: $9.83

Dealing Hands: ($0.35) 9♦ T♣ 8♥ 9♥ T♥ (6 players)
Hero raises to $0.50, UTG+1 calls $0.50, 4 folds

First Draw: ($1.35) (2 players)
Hero discards 1, UTG+1 discards 2,
9♦ T♣ 9♥ T♥ || T♦
Hero bets $0.50, UTG+1 raises to $1, Hero raises to $1.50, UTG+1 raises to $2, Hero calls $0.50

Hero mucked
UTG+1 showed J♣ 3♦ 3♥ 3♣ 3♠, four of a kind, Threes
UTG+1 won $5.19
(Rake: $0.16)

Since this is $0.25/$0.50 that hand represents my biggest loss to date.
I can't really call it a "bad beat" either. I can't see me NOT capping after-draw, so I can't see that it is badly played.

I was quite pleased with my reaction, and with my play overall for the day.
I was going to continue, but the tables broke up.

I do think I need to review some 5-Card Draw odds & outs though.
I may be Folding 2 Fast in the BB with decent pairs facing a raise and several callers.

I need to get some experience playing 5-Card Draw on short-handed tables. I generally leave when we're down to 4, but I watched two good players playing heads-up for a while yesterday, and it looks like there is definitely money to be made there.

I still haven't reviewed The Mental Game of Poker, as planned, but perhaps later today.

Originally posted by VorpalF2F
Saturdays are so unkind!

My deepest apologies to Saturdays everywhere.
All is forgiven.

I played approximately 500 hands of NL 25 after lunch, and besides a whack o' run-good, I managed to bluff a few and fold a few more and ended up over 2 BI up for the session.

I found that the combination of tight image and 300 BB stack lends some authority to one's bets.

The best thing about today, though is that overall, I am now a winning player at NL 25 I had been labouring under the impression that I still had 6BI to go,

My son & his gf were here for supper, and he asked "How's the poker going, Dad?"
So I showed him, and while doing so noticed that the filters were off, and my graph included my rather disastrous NL 50 shot.

Here is my NL 25 graph, suitably annotated:

I began to (try to) clear the bonus in November, but quickly realized that a $50 bonus wasn't worth much if I had to lose $100 to get it.

After realizing that I was solidly tilted, I read The Mental Game of Poker and dropped to NL 5, then moved up to NL 10, and on Dec 29 moved back to NL 25.

Somewhere between hands 6000 and 7000 I watched pleno1's first Wednesday coaching session.

Mental Game
I've sure come a long way since November.
Remember the goal: "Stable Confidence"
TMGP refers to 4 stages of development of a skill:
1:d  Unconscious Incompentence:  You totaly suck, and you don't even know you totally suck
2:d  Concious Incompetence:  You finally realize you totally suck, but have no idea what to do about it.
3:d  Concious Competence:  You know what to do, but only if you have the instructions right there in front of you -- remember Starting Hands Charts?
4:d  Unconscious Competence:  You're so awesome you could do it in your sleep.

My playing at the moment is somewhere on a sliding scale between 2.5 and 4.

So over the next few weeks, I'm going to make an inventory of all the skillz poker requires, and evaluate myself on them.

Blecch!

I needed just a few more points to clear a bonus, so I sat down to play a conservative game, with no shenanigans.

Blecch!

I couldn't hit a flop if I had telescopic sights.

My usual fallback -- 3Bet CBets and push 'em off the pot met w/ 4Bets.
Do you think they're on to me?

It didn't help matters that I had AA on one table and some crap on another, and clicked "Raise" on the wrong table.
<sigh>

Hmmph

Got my bonuses though, and that took away some of the pain.

No big, this will all come back...
I can't say the same for the Canadian penny, though...

Yikes!
My run-good ran away!
In the last 2K hands I'm down 10 BI

Darn it! Where did I put my fold button ?!?

Although I like playing deep stacked, I really hate it when I lose 150 BB with top two pair going to runner runner straight.

No problem. I started all this down 20 BI and made them all back, I can make these back too.

5-Card Draw is progressing nicely though.
Ups and downs, but overall ups

Today is garbage day at Vorpal Manor, and on my way out the door, I checked the newspaper box intending to toss anything inside into the recycling box.

Well there was. It was today's edition of the National Post.
I used to subscribe because a) they have good writers, and insightful articles
and b) because they have the only readily available cryptic crossword.
Not to mention a decently challenging sudoku.

While at work, I received a phone call similar to:
"Good afternoon Mr Swordsman, I'm calling to find out if you received your National Post this morning."
"Why yes, I did. It was a pleasant surprise, considering I'm not a subscriber"
"Well, it says here on my computer that you are, sorry".
"Not to argue with your computer, ma'am, but what should I do to correct this?"
"Please call our customer service department at 1-800-CARE-NOT and they'll look after you"
"Too right, then. I'll do that tomorrow"

It has to be tomorrow, because there were a couple of crossword answers I didn't get.

Makes me a little nervous since I work for the Post's parent company, and every free copy given in error might make a difference to my pension...

Poker?
Oh yeah -- every since I posted the last graph I have been losing at the rate of about 60bb/100.

I have not won an all-in since Sunday.
My steals meet with resteals.
My bluffs don't get called -- they get raised.

Yucky.

However I've seen this before, and I've seen it turn around before.

Another mystery solved.

I was about to relate the story of the newspaper and phone call to Mrs Vorpal, when she said, "Oh -- I forgot to tell you -- when I was at the grocery store, I signed up for the National Post. They had a promo, where you get 3 $10 gift cards for signing up for a $15 subscription".

So how can the company survive paying people to take the paper?

"Well, yes, we lose $15 on every sale, but we make it up in volume"

Reminds me of how I player poker...

I noticed in one of my posts I wrote at the end:

All the bets,
--VS

I think I might be playing poker too much...

To you think maybe this guy saw Pleno's coaching, but didn't quite get it?

Hero (SB): $25.52 (102.1 bb)
MP: $8.75 (35 bb)
CO: $26.05 (104.2 bb)
BTN: $7.15 (28.6 bb)
BB: $18.55 (74.2 bb)
UTG: $48.35 (193.4 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with T:s J:h
4 folds, Hero raises to $0.75, BB calls $0.50

Flop: ($1.50) 2:h Q:h 5:h (2 players)
Hero bets $0.75, BB raises to $1.50, Hero calls $0.75

Turn: ($4.50) K:h (2 players)
Hero checks, BB checks

River: ($4.50) A:h (2 players)
Hero bets $2.35, BB raises to $16.30 and is all-in, Hero calls $13.95

Results:

I'm getting slaughtered -- both at 5-Card Draw and NL 25

In 5-Card Draw, I'm playing the same style and ranges at $0.25/$0.50 I did at $0.10/$0.20

I have two problems.
First, I seem to be not getting the hands.
My VPIP is a full % lower than it was at the lower limit.

Secondly, I am getting beat over and over.

Finally, when I DO get a good hand, it gets folded back to me. Thanks for the blinds, guys!.

My winrate in terms of % of hands won is actually 2% higher than at the lower limit, but the results are just not there. I lose big and win small.

Tomorrow, I am going to go over my ranges in detail, and try to see if they really do make sense.

Example:
I'll raise a pair of Jacks on the button.
EV Galois says 99 is fine. I'm doubting this.

It is also highly likely that I'm giving the blinds too much credit.
When I raise from the BTN, I get 3Bet, they D1, CBet and I fold.
The odd time I DO call -- because I hit two pair or whatever, I'm behind.

There must be something I'm missing.
This is now a very long downswing -- In the past 3 days I'm down over 40 BB, which is astounding.

This even though I have had a couple of minor up-sessions.
Also, I have had short streaks where I do win, but they are few and far between.

I'm not whining, just doing a thought-dump.

I'll let you know once I've done my database digging.

Have a good weekend.

Maybe it was the same guy. ♦

As for the Post thing, think how this new volume affects your retirement plans and smile - unless you're giving it back to them via the subscription money of course!

Gl digging and I hope you can find some Gold

PS: Don't forget all your mod buddies