Originally posted by Tomaloc
hey sir, interesting blog
feel kinda similar to you atm ♦
2 zoom sh10 tables, running crazy like 29/25 or something, winning at a nice rate ♦
some thoughts i have had on playing against unknown perceived regs:
- opening 100% buttons is profitable
- on a more controversial matter... opening 100% sb (???!) feel like people don't defend enough against that either.
- 3betting light vs utg with Axs? i feel like i get enough folds, but people open so tight in general that i am afraid to do it more often.
just something to think about.
you clearly have what it takes to succeed imo, keep going
Hi, thank you!
a) I agree that opening a lot of BU is profitable, especially vs regs that fold too much and/or don't 3bet enough, and sometimes even vs unknown. Most of the time, even if you don't win preflop with your 45o, you'll be playing in position, with initiative and a skill advantage vs the average opponent.
b) If you open to 3bb from sb, then you can open 100% if BB folds at least:
EV > 0 <=>
Pfold*bbToWin - (1-Pfold)*bbToInvest > 0 <=>
Pfold*1.5 - (1-Pfold)*2.5 > 0 <=>
Pfold*1.5 - 2.5 + Pfold*2.5 > 0 <=>
Pfold*4 > 2.5 <=>
Pfold > 0.625
And there isn't a lot of people who fold less than 62.5% from BB vs SB steal, so I agree that it's profitable, except against the really big calling stations. And this is assuming that regs don't adapt. That's a whole other issue.
c) It really depends on villain's stats, I wouldn't do it to anyone but if fold to 3bet and fold to cbet are high I'll consider it. However they'll tend to fold a lot less from UTG even if they have f3b 75.