Welcome to GG games, we missed you. First session 1,4K hands and 7,5 buyins under EV. I miss cashout.
It would be a lot easier to handle downswings, if there at least sometimes would be an upswing. But not for me. 2 sessions at GG games, 8 buyins under EV and VPIP90+ guys keep hitting. Quads vs Nutboat, check. Nutflush vs straightflush, check. Losing to a gutshot when opponent calls pot sized reraise on TT9 with dry Q8xx, check. Losing 5+ times in a session to a flopped set in 4bet pot when opponent has hand like A663, check. Getting it in THREE times vs guy make no-look allin with AKK and KK, and he has AA every time, check.
Sometimes poker is far from being fun. I hope the tide turns.
- Opponent calling turn pot raise on A865ss and blank river bet with dry KK, no blockers. Lost.
Does that guy know something we should all know?
When you run bad, you run bad. Let me tell you a story about me and a maniac.
A player came to table with 10bb stack. Shoved all-in blind every hand. Couldn't lose, got to 100bb. Then he started to make 30bb straddles. I got 3 times all-in with 100bb stack versus him with better equity, every time he managed to suckout. His VPIP was literally 100. In total, I lost 4 stacks to him and he was sitting with around 200bb stack now. I managed to climb back up and I had 400bb, he had 800bb. And I was patient, and waited.
Then I got it, QQ on Q33 flop. I bet, he calls. Turn is T, I bet and he raises. VPIP 100 guy, willing to stack off with anything. Could easily have 3 or TT. But you probably quess what he had. Nut boat vs Quads versus VPIP100 maniac, on 800bb pot. Fuck me.
And I couldn't beat gutshots nor flush draws in other tables. I lost multiple stacks to a guy, who called pot sized bet on the turn on 4559ss with naked A high. My KK76ss was paper on A river. And I lost multiple stacks to a guy who called pot bets with any draw, always leaving 1-3bb behind for the river. Amazingly, he kept hitting those rivers versus my nuts.
First day back in GG pool, 16 buyins under EV. WTF?
Same story. Feels impossible to get results. And it's not the level of competition. I literally constantly ask myself "how the fuck he called with that?". Even the regs, cold calling 3bets like no tomorrow, standard flop calling range is anything that hits the board. Any pair, gutshot+, any flush draw. I toned down bluffing A LOT, and tried to play mostly valuepoker. But can't beat the runouts.
Today's session started well, won few buyins. Then started the 2nd half. First, 300bb pot where reg cold called my 4bet with QJ86ds. Flop was T54ss. He had a gutshot and 8 high flush draw, happily got it in versus my AATT. I lost. Then came 400bb pot, 2 aggros decided to get the money in on the flop where I had the nut straight and flush draw. One was drawing dead, other had a gutshot. I lost.
Then I lost multiple buyins to a reg who has a simple strategy. He cbets 100%, and barrels turn if he has any piece of the board. So I called flops and raised turns for value. He called almost always, and if he had 1+ outs he hit those on the river. Mathematically he plays horrible poker, but is running hot every day and makes about 10+ buyins a day. Run 6 buyins under EV today, so total count in 2 days is 22 buyins under EV, 7,5K hands. Being Kyyberi.
Edit. Had 2 Fish Buffer spins, minimum on both. Doesn't even surprise me.
Not funny anymore. Played a night session at party. Started well, and then BOOM hit me again. Lost 15 buyins, and I didn't even played bad. Highlights:
- 955 flop goes check-check, turn is A and I pot with AK9x. Opponent calls dry KK, river is K.
- 200bb deep AA99 vs ATT6, I 4bet and flop is T94. BOOM! Nice call preflop.
- 300bb deep I call a 4bet from a guy who's 3bet and 4bet range is exactly AA. Flop is KT2, he bets and I call with KQ98. Turn is blank and river is K. I bet for value, he has AA22. Why does these coolers when deep happen mostly this way?
- 250bb deep AAKx vs AKKx preflop allin. Run it twice, lost both to a flush.
- 200bb deep, I 4bet AATTds, opponent calls with AQJTr (rainbow!!!!) and flop is QQT. BOOM.
- Kinda similar as before: Flop is A54ss, goes check-check, turn is 7 and I pot, opponent calls. River is a blank, I bet and opponent calls with dry KK. Makes me wonder that maybe bluffing with 66ss is not good versus this guy.
- Lost 3 times AA vs AA pre.
- Lost so many times that I lost the count to a paired flop where I have the boat and opponent calls my raise with dry overpair. Makes his 2 outs on the turn or on the river.
- And the cherry on my cake: in 3bet pot, 200bb deep, I manage to get my money in with top3 pairs and A blocker vs opponent's dry AA44. He has 3 outs. Run it twice, 4 comes both times.
Same story as at GG. Most of the times I have no problems in generating profits. Stacks go up nicely, and then comes some weird cooler, bad beat, suckout or opponent just calling down. The only way I lose money to opponents is one of those above. At RIO PLO50 there were players who outplayed me and put me all the time into tough situations. In there PLO25 games there are no tough decisions. But still I managed to dig a hole of almost 50 buyins in just 10K hands.
Wow, got tilted just reading this. Those bad beats seem as legitimate as the skills of Mike Postle.
Morning session started with getting the money in my monster draw versus very dry AA in 3bet pot. I had 75%, lost both runs. Right after that AA vs AA, opponent got trips. And of course the mandatory 2x opponent calling raise with 2 outs (dry overpair on paired flop) and hitting the turn.
BUT! Despite that Boomswitch (registered trademark) session ended up couple buyins up.
Going to turn the tide with streaming, starting at 12 CET. Join the fun! ♦
Originally posted by Kyyberi
Going to turn the tide with streaming, starting at 12 CET. Join the fun! ♦
All the best Kyyberi!
I was beginning to get worried -- such a fast, hard downswing can be demoralizing
Not my first. But it is demolarizing. I think the important aspect is whether you know why it happened or not. I know that my base game beats the field. Downswing is not an outcome of opponents just outplaying me constantly, it's because either I lose an all-in where I played the hand correctly or I lose at showdown with a hand I played correctly.
But to say that losing constantly wouldn't affect me would be stupid. I am 100% sure that I played some hands not-so-well there, as I had negative feelings. Wasn't aimed to any opponent (which is my mental game flaw trigger), just having hard time to accept the variance. You all know the feeling "why am I the unluckiest person in the world? This can't be happening to me!". I know that just playing solid base game will give me profits. Just have to grind through it.
Today was a better day. Booked small profit in the stream, although I made one major mistake in a big pot. But then again, some people in the chat would have shoved. I don't have the hand history, but it goes like this:
3 players involved, I have AJ9xds (can't remember exactly). Preflop one player opens, I call and another player (with whom I am 200bb deep) calls. Flop is A97ss (my nfd), so I have top2+nfd. I bet, both of them call. Turn is 2, opponent's check, I bet and deep stack raises. What to do? If I call, SPR is less than 1 for the river.
In the stream I called, river was 7 and I called his shove. Some said that I should just get it in on the turn. I analyzed the hand a lot there, and in the end I think I should fold the turn. The thing is that turn raiser should not have AA (didn't 3bet pre), I block 99 and river 7 makes 77 very unlikely. And opponent is known to be aggressive. But the only hand I beat is JT8ss type of combo draw that decides to bluff turn. If he would bluff that hand, why not do it on the flop already? We freeroll vs A9, but not sure if he would raise that. He might, especially if he has some kind of a draw with it.
Situation where there are two possibilites, and both of them are very unlikely. Shove might be ok, but the more I think the more I would like to fold. He might have some bluffs or A9 some of the time, but too often that raise is for value. Still, even versus 99 we have 10 outs.
Evening session started with a reg cold calling my 4bet with JJ64ds (solid!!!!), flop was J43 and my AA couldn't improve. Lol.
This kind of situation happened multiple times, valuepoker creates profits.
Spoiler

Opponent calls flop, turn and river. Had few similar spots where I get max value for my straight, opponent calls down with weak 2 pairs. And in the stream one good customer called turn and river big bets with bottom 2. I have no idea why, is it because they don't like to be bluffed? Or do they play holdem where 2 pairs is a call down? Anyway, I stopped making barrel bluffs and started to collect value.
And here is the justice moment, where some EV was paid back!
Spoiler

4bet pot pre, on the flop SPR was less than 1. Not a great spot, but I think they will have enough non-T hands to make it profitable. Could check it with PokerJucie tomorrow in the steam. Money went in on the flop, turn was pretty decent card. Giving me 100% equity. It was nice as I didn't have to even sweat the river!
KK opened, JT98 3bet and I 4bet. I think KKT4 should be folded, although it's probably close. Versus AA and AA he has 33% equity.
I also finally got over 600 followers to my Twitch, which means it's time for a giveaway! Tomorrow will host a study stream in the afternoon, and will give away Christmas PLO Order Moose, or a PLO Order t-shirt. Winner can decide! https://www.twitch.tv/kyyberi
Not sure yet, probably around 12 CET.
Early evening went well, booked nice profits. Late evening didn't, started to lose to 1 outers (top set vs bottom set, flop allin) and in 3bet pots people just wanted to shove flush draws versus me, getting it in with 30% equity constantly. They also managed to win most of the allins. Lost 3 stacks to 2 outers (that cursed overpair versus my set/boat) too, as usual. In the end this day was around -3,5 buyins. But got 5 buyins from the leaderboard and couple more from the rakeback. So winning day overall!
Spoiler

My nemesis, aggressive player who also plays tricky sometimes. I opened pre and cbet, which he raised. I just called to trap him, and raised turn. He tanked and called, leaving few dollard behind. River is 7 and he shoved. Nothing too special about the hand, if he wants to raise that on the flop then rest is standard. But it's just that in most 200bb+ pots I am on the receiving end.
Spoiler

I wasn't on the receiving end always. 3way allin on the flop, I had 47% so the best hand won. Felt really special after all the beats.
To celebrate whooping 600 followers in my Twitch, today is the giveaway day! Stream starting at 12 CET, with some PLO studying. There will be the giveaway too, either PLO Order Christmas Moose or t-shirt. Winner can pick.

Weird. I played a short session and thought I made profits, having 200bb stacks on most of my tables. And can't remember losing that many all-ins. But still my balance is a lot less than I remember. It might be that I just remember it wrong, probably should pay attention to it.
Uploaded today's stream to my Youtube. There are over 20 strategy videos in the channel too, but they are visible only for the PLO Order members. Here is also a sneak peek to what kind of videos there are. All you have to do is to subscribe my Twitch.
Oh, and we have two interested members ready for PLO Beginners Group: https://www.pokerstrategy.com/forum/thread.php?threadid=447964&goto=firstnew
One more needed!

Oh man it is impossible for me to win at GG games. Lost 4 buyins, most of the session everything is good. But then the beats just kill the profits.
- 400bb pot, allin on the flop, lost to 1 outer.
- 100bb preflop allin, AJJTds vs AJ66ss, 6xx flop. Lost.
- Reg decided to 3bet AT55ss preflop (well played, once again), hits set on K53 flop where I have JJ53ds.
- Allin on the turn, opponent had 4 outs. Run it twice, lost both.
- Sets can't dodge flush draws in all-ins.
- Flushes can't dodge sets in all-ins.
- Straights can't dodge runner-runners in all-ins.
In short, same old. At least session EV was profitable, run 5 buyins under EV.
Well, with this week's rakebacks the drop at Party bankroll is pretty much filled. Had a good session where most of the hands held. In the end lost 500bb pot in 4bet pot J54r flop, had AA53 with backdoor flushdraw, opponent had just KKJ5.
Couple of notable hands:
Spoiler
It's easy for maniac to make profits, when running like this. I called pre, and called flop. Check-raised turn, and when he called I knew he had the fd. River I check, he pots. Nice hand to call a pot sized raise on the turn, and getting one of the two cards from the deck that I would call. If I had the straight, I would have check-raised river as he would pot that hand even if he had missed the river.
Spoiler
I 3bet pre, opponent 4bets. We are 170bb deep. On the flop I check, he bets something like 1/4 of a pot which is weird. I have top2 and I block AA, have to get it in as versus AA I have almost 40%. Opponent almost snapcalled and I was sure he has AA. Had to triple check his hand to realize that he had 4bet with bad Jacks and then stacked off to a pot sized raise with gutshot on flushdraw board.
I am pretty sure that his strategy wasn't really good one.
Lol, following session not so good. Lost nut boat vs straight flush and then 2 buyins when opponents were not believers. Called turn pot and river big bet with 2 pairs when straight completed on the turn. At least I don't have to bluff those players anymore!
Also again a reg made really weird call. He 3bet me and I called, flop was K54r. He cbet half a pot and I raised pot. I had a little over that raise behind, so to get it in he needed at least 35% equity versu me. He got it in and I was sure he had AA. He had QJT9. Not sure how he thought he could have 35% there versus my raising range. And overall, I am happy he wants to stack off with Q high and backdoor. I had A678 and we split the pot when run it twice.
Also made one reg to scratch his head, he cbet monotone flop and I minraised. Turn I check-minraised and he got angry, telling me how bad I was. And folded. ♦
Fuck I am getting tired of variance.
Played really good today, made profits despite some suckouts and beats. Then the last 10minutes of my session was just crash, boom and bang.
300bb 4bet pot, opponent donks QQT4 on T75 flop. Turn Q.
3x preflop allin AA vs either KK or QQ. Lost all.
Flop allin in 3bet pot, set vs gutshot that I also block. Opponent hit 1 outer.
Flop allin, set vs dry AA. Turn A.
Flop allin in 3bet pot, opponent decided to bet half a pot and call my pot sized shove with AK95 on QT7ss flop, won with A high vs my KJ9 with flush draw.
Flop allin vs reg on the turn in 3bet pot vs naked flush draw with 2 pairs and own flush draw, lost.
All of that in 10 minutes. Profitable session turned to -8buyins in a blink. And in each, I got it in with the best hand. Not fun.
I also folded nut boat today:
Spoiler

Opponent called pre, flop and turn, and then donked pot on the river. TT is 3rd nuts there, and there should be 0 value hands he should pot there. Afterwards really easy fold, but when you do have the nut boat it's not that easy to fold it on the river. ♦
Going to stop reporting bad run, it would take pages. Not a good day, EV -10 buyins but run 30 buyins below EV. In short, got money in constantly as a favorite, but nothing could hold. And that 10 buyin EV losses came pretty much from people hitting amazingly in 3bet and 4bet pots, despite them calling preflop with really bad hands. And flopped nuts faced backdoors way too often.
The only good thing is that as I am running about 50-60 buyins under EV for last 2 weeks, I played PLO25 and not PLO50. Not much more positive in poker at the moment.
Edit: Forgot to mention that I run bad in leaderboards too. Every time I plan to make a leaderboard run, someone wakes up. Or more than one wakes up. At GG, I played way more than normally would be required to win. When I played for party leaderboard, the average amount required to win on weekdays is 350-400 points. Today someone made over 450 points and there is still over 5 hours left. My plan to make 400 would get me probably to 4th or 5th place. Most likely will just skip that.
I also bought some stocks last week with 1000e. The following 2 days it went down over 10%.
With my run, I am pretty sure that Trump wins tomorrow. You can blame it on me.

