Okay, this is a bit of a vent post to put a couple of things down in print.
As I posted earlier today I'm running well. This means that despite a withdrawl this month (and thanks to an instant bonus at 888.com) I'm as near rolled for $2/$4 SH as makes no difference. So I'm an excited camper at the moment and that bugs me a bit. There is no reason to get excited. I'm neither rolled nor equipped to play at a decent limit (for me $5/$T+), I'm still at the very beginnings of a long learning curve and playing $2/$4 is just a marker on that curve.
This is the mindset I believe is essential to succeed at this game. Emotion only buggers things up for you, makes you play less optimally and make tainted decisions. Some of those decisions may work out, but so does betting on 0 at the roulette wheel every now and then (and on those occassions it often pays for several beers, a curry and some tequila shooters!). Emotion is, in many important respects, -EV.
Yes we are emotional beings and emotion does have a part to play in motivating us to achieve. But when you are making decisions at the table, making decisions on study:play ratios, making decisions on BRM - your emotions make optimal decision making difficult.
So I've been mulling over a couple of things and I guess here they are:
i. From the point of view of reason and logic I should start playing $2/$4 SH more or less immediately. Why? Well, someone who isn't results oriented understands that the BRM rules are just reasonable threshholds to avoid going busto.
If you don't lend weight to the results you get from moving up, and instead regard them for what they are (ie variance + our skill + villians skill/table selection - rake) then a move up or a move down is simple.
Emotion is getting in the freakin' road though and I'm not confident I have it in check. I'm completely aware and understand that a 300BB Hurricane Katrina of a run could strike at any time and flatten my bankroll. This shouldn't matter in the slightest.. but I can already see the blog posts that could easily follow a run like that! 
ii. A second approach is to go all conservative on things and just play $2/$4 FR (which I've already started) including SH games at FR tables - waiting for a 625 - 750BB BRM to move up. That way a period of sustained negative variance is more easily withstood and allows more time to get established at the higher limit. The emotional rollercoaster gets flattened into more of a merry-go-round. WHEEEEE! 
I don't like this conservative approach for a couple of reasons. One is for reasons stated in i. above - it doesn't stand up from a purely rational perspective. Secondly if I want to start getting real value from this game I need to beat $2/$4 and build a roll that is robust enough to start looking at $3/$6. Given the BRM jump between the two is proportionally the least of all jumps - and I think that point is often missed in FL BRM discussions - I think that point is the best opportunity to begin applying a more conservative approach.
iii. What I'm most likely to do is slowly transition in the way I've transitioned between most limits to this point:
- I've begun to add $2/$4 FR tables (which I'm technicallly waaay overrolled for now anyway). I'll play these now as a default only playing the $1/$2 FR tables for table selection reasons.
- I'll look for the looser $2/$4 tables. If I'm playing at $2/$4 I'll drop immediately back to one table initially, I'll add the FR table too to start with. After getting comfortable with the basics of calculating pot odds correctly with the higher numbers, I'll move across to $2/$4 SH organically. If I'm running well I'll likely default to the $2/$4 tables, if I'm struggling I'll play the $1/$2 tables and only add loose/decent $2/$4 games.
- I'm prepared to take a hit to around $1500 before eliminating $2/$4 out of my range completely, so I figure I've got a fairly comfortable range to live in.
- I'll try rationalise away the butterflies and dreaming that inevitably comes with moving up. This is part of that process!
Okay, long rambling post over. Hopefully its served its purpose!
BTW I'm shelving the private coaching I was intending to take at this point due to the other study related project I've previously alluded to in my blog. Once this project is over I'm going to start a regular coaching program - mentoring FTW!!! ♠_cool:
out.
Tony Robbins!
