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Hi all!
Havent been very active for a while. I got my publishing things moving finally and have been busy with that. Also there were some events in the manor.
Played only around 400 games this month. No graph, because i had to convert from HM1 to HM2 and all graphs are messed up. HM1 showed around 9% ROI (actual and ev both) for Spetmeber, but HM2 graph shows BE - in that case i dont know where my BR increase came from.
Anyway, long term plan is to continue that publishing venture and start PhD studies at last. My goal is to get so far that i can fund myself with poker while studying in uni, so i'm not leaving from poker nowhere, although September was modest to say the least.
Good luck at the tables!
Hi everyone!
My friend savage1981 came up an interesting play in yesterdays HH review, and i'll post my analyses to see whether its profitable or not.
Hand:
Stars 9max STT 15$ bubble 100/200
CO 2668 chips folds
BU 2020 chips folds
SB (partykaemper) 4845 chips in total, raises to 500
BB (Hero) 3967 chips in total with K :heart:Q :club:, calls 300
FLOP (2 :diamond:4 :heart:T :diamond:)
parykaemper bets 750
Hero shoves 3467 and is all-in
In the 1st part we try to analyse if this shove on the flop is profitable
and in the 2nd part we try to see if its better to shove pre compared to this play
1st part: is this shove on the flop profitable?
Assumptions:
partykaempre is a known BE reg and we have thousands of hands on him. According to stats, we assume (1) he raises 80% range pre here and (2) he c-bets 100%. (3) If we shove on this flop, he will call with the following range:
TT+,44,22,ATs,KTs,QTs,JTs,T8s+,T4s,T2s,AdKd,AdQd,KdQd,AdJd,KdJd,QdJd,Ad9d,Kd9d,Qd9d,Jd9d,Ad5d,Ad4d,Kd4d,Qd4d,Ad3d,AKo,ATo,KTo,QTo,JTo,T8o+
(basically flushdraws with overs, T8+, overpairs, 2 pairs, sets)
So he calls Hero's shove 13% range
13% range in the context of 80% range means that partykaemper will call 13/80= 16.25% of the time.
If Hero folds on the flop, leaving 3467 chips behind, his $Eq (his equity from the prize pool according to his stack) is 0,2647. If hero shoves and wins the 1750 pot, his $Eq will be 0,3208. Hence, Hero needs to win the pot if he shoves 0,2647/0,3208 = 82,5% of the time to BE in $. Notice that he only needs to win 3467/5217 = 66,5% of the times to BE in chips.
Since we assumed that partykaemper will call 16.25% of the time, he will fold 100% - 16,25% = 83,75% of the time, which means that this shove on the flop is profitable compared to folding.
But that doesnt mean that Hero's play here is better than just shoving preflop for example.
2nd part: which play is more valuable - shoving pre or shoving this flop?
What is Hero's equity from the prize pool after shoving pre?
Lets give partykaemper a wide r/c range: AT+, A8s+, 44+, KQs. If he r/c that with his 80% steal sb range, Hero gains 0,5% from the prize pool according to Wiz and hero ends up the situation with Eq 28,15% on average.
What is Hero's equity after shoving that flop?
We assumed that partykaemper will fold 83,75% of the time. If he calls, hero wins the hand around 18% of the time according to Equilab. So the equity after the flop shove is as follows:
83,75%*0,3208 + 16.25%*18%*0,4015 (eq if hero doubles up) = 0,2804
So its pretty much the same. But notice that we gave pretty wide calling range for partykaemper on the flop. If he calls like 8% of the whole range, that is 10% of the times on the flop, then shoving on the flop comes clearly more profitable.
But then again, partykaemper made a pretty big c-bet, usually players dont bet that much, hence the risk/reward ratio is usually worse from hero's perspective.
So idk, what do you think, to shove pre or on this flop? And maybe more importantly, which flops you dont shove vs that player?
ive just read your whole thread because of your title !
nice thread and posts btw, keep it up 
Originally posted by spaznRNMD
ive just read your whole thread because of your title !nice thread and posts btw, keep it up
Thanks! Are you a philosopher?
Originally posted by moneyback88
what is you nick in stars?
I prefer 3 bet KQo
Yeah, std is 3bet. My name is Hsova.
*************************************
How do you play this hand?
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 30 Tournament, 50/100 Blinds (5 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
SB (t1583)
BB (t3699)
UTG (t4166)
Hero (MP) (t1866)
Button (t2186)
Hero's M: 12.44
Preflop: Hero is MP with 3
, 3
1 fold, Hero bets t210, 1 fold, SB calls t160, 1 fold
Flop: (t520) 9
, K
, 10 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks
Turn: (t520) 3 (2 players)
SB bets t200, Hero calls t200
River: (t920) 10 (2 players)
SB bets t400, Hero raises to t1456 (All-In), SB calls t773 (All-In)
Total pot: t3266
And btw, I got my FTP bankroll back, transactions were quick and easy, respect for stars 
Originally posted by Luupainaja
*************************************
How do you play this hand?PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 30 Tournament, 50/100 Blinds (5 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
SB (t1583)
BB (t3699)
UTG (t4166)
Hero (MP) (t1866)
Button (t2186)Hero's M: 12.44
Preflop: Hero is MP with 3
1 fold, Hero bets t210, 1 fold, SB calls t160, 1 foldFlop: (t520) 9
SB checks, Hero checksTurn: (t520) 3
SB bets t200, Hero calls t200River: (t920) 10
SB bets t400, Hero raises to t1456 (All-In), SB calls t773 (All-In)Total pot: t3266
I know this might sound radical, but raise the turn maybe?
Originally posted by savage1981
Originally posted by Luupainaja
*************************************
How do you play this hand?PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 30 Tournament, 50/100 Blinds (5 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
SB (t1583)
BB (t3699)
UTG (t4166)
Hero (MP) (t1866)
Button (t2186)Hero's M: 12.44
Preflop: Hero is MP with 3
1 fold, Hero bets t210, 1 fold, SB calls t160, 1 foldFlop: (t520) 9
SB checks, Hero checksTurn: (t520) 3
SB bets t200, Hero calls t200River: (t920) 10
SB bets t400, Hero raises to t1456 (All-In), SB calls t773 (All-In)Total pot: t3266
I know this might sound radical, but raise the turn maybe?
Nice blog Sir,
And yeah I would defo raise the Turn. Look at the draws out there.
What will you do if another heart comes or a 4 card straights there?
And after river if he has a better hand then fine but On the turn I am raising pretty much always
Originally posted by savage1981
I know this might sound radical, but raise the turn maybe?
A bit extreme but i agree ♦.
I kept in mind more the flop and the river. I think its a flop where we can omit a c-bet with 33, or what?
Originally posted by abhi147
Nice blog Sir,
And yeah I would defo raise the Turn. Look at the draws out there.
What will you do if another heart comes or a 4 card straights there?
Obv +1, dont know what i was thinking there.
Just made an application to TeamMoshman. Lets see what they're gonna offer, idk whats their std offers???
Havent seen HerekPl for a while, but today he was on the tables:
Red marks are for good regs, i dont want to see more than 2 of them on my table.
Whats your plan on that table, HerekPl, do you really outplay them and/or my marking system has too low levels for you?
Haha do you ever find tables with only 2 regs? If yes then you results are terrible playing so soft tables
Originally posted by moneyback88
Haha do you ever find tables with only 2 regs? If yes then you results are terrible playing so soft tables
No, 2 or 3 (really) good regs. I have blue and yellow for other regs.
afgan and talentaki are not so good - masstabling SNE. Rather not this type im afraid to play. Recently im dropping 30$, its hard to get soft tables, traffic is shitty.... 15$ ftw
Or you can say i am not so good to play in the 30$s
Btw Afghan never goes for SNE. Dont mislead people
Originally posted by moneyback88
Or you can say i am not so good to play in the 30$sBtw Afghan never goes for SNE. Dont mislead people
Hi moneyback88!
What and where do you play? Whats your sn, if you dont mind me asking?
November 2012 Havent done a wrap up for a while, because i didnt play that much, at least not for a wrap-up-able volume.
But here's Nov 2012:
Tourneys: #1523
That includes: #64 Fifty50; #433 7$ hyper turbos; #848 15$ HT, turbos, regular; #178 30$ + some micromillion mtt-s with couple of mincashes
EvROI%: 6.3%
ROI%: 3.9%
ITM: 40.5%
Winnings: 880.09$
Time played: 116 hr
AVBi: 14.68$
Stellar rewards: 50$ + 100$
FPP rakeback: 200$
Total winnings: 1230.09
Total $/hr: 10.6$/hr
***********************************************************
Rakeback is not accurate bc i'm clearing it with the 235 6-max HT sats to sunday storm, which have so far proved to be much more profitable than just buying 200$ for 15 400 FPP (incl cost of time).
As you can see i have started to play hyper turbos and so far it has been very profitable decision. I'm playing 7 and 15$, looking forward to start including 30$ aswell. Since the swings in HT are much bigger than in turbo games, i prefer to play HT one level below my highest turbo games level. So if i start playing 30$ HT, i must also be able to play 60$ turbos bankroll wise.
Thats all for now,
good luck at the tables!
show 7$ only, i couldnt win a game there ;), sample was ofc lol but was funny crushing 15$ and going straight down at 7$