Critical thinking on the River

We've got the strong hand we were hoping for, but we should always be ready to re-evaluate almost any spot in case things go south. Time to put your critical thinking to the test!

Back at NL50, we wake up on the Big Blind with a speculative hand and decide to try and catch something after closing the Preflop trade. As always, interesting decisions to follow...

The Preflop call is OK although we'll have to play out of position. We should always consider this, especially when facing a bigger open raise. The fact that the SB player calls as well sweetens this deal in our favor though. The UTG player is pretty much unknown to us. We only have 35/26 for his VPIP/PFR over 40 hands.

The Flop doesn't look too bad. It surely helps the aggressor with all his pairs with Jacks and Queens but we have a nice OESD to make them pay. Since we don't have our hand (yet) we shouldn't play aggresively. So Hero only checks to find out that his opponents also don't have much to present on this Flop. And it's good for our draw because we see the Turn without facing big scary predators out there.

With the 4th community card dealt, our dream comes true. Both our opponents played passively so there's no reason to postpone the action. And that's what our Hero does, although his bet sizing could be improved. We bet around 2/3 of the pot but we could easily bet the whole pot. If they have hands good enough to call 2/3 of the pot, then they can call a bigger bet as well.

The River card doesn't make us an underdog in theory, but our value bet (which, again, should have been bigger) meets resistance. This Ace may have improved our Villain's holding to a two-pair hand, and we beat all the possible sets (although a flopped set is unlikely considering his passive play). Also KT hands completed their straight draws. But how exactly has our equity shifted? Aren't we getting brickwalled here?

This time we make the number of options small but the question is still big! We exclude folding for obvious reasons. We don't risk much money to see the Villain cards. The question is: do we still have a value 3-bet here? Anyway, time for you to show us your critical thinking skills once more!

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Previous poll's results

Last time we were trying to block an unpleasant River with our devaluated overpair.

The final decisions split in two but overall check/folding gained the most votes across all our communities. And it's the correct line to play here. We've got as much money as we could from top pairs. Considering how the board has turned up, we can't make any more money here.

Our best bet is to check here. The Villain is not likely to turn his top pair into a bluff, he'll be glad to check with it as well. And if he intends to bluff, he'll do it anyway, that includes an all-in to our block bet. The latter would mean waste of money from our side.