Can I bet two streets with 2nd pair readless?
Barry Carter invites Chip Race co-host David Lappin to review a hand he thought he played well....
In this new series PokerStrategy Editor Barry Carter gets a relatively 'standard' hand reviewed by a professional player to see if it was a trivial decision or not. If you missed the first two hands he played a PKO hand with Dara O'Kearney and a Spin & Go hand with SpinLegends coach Epistokrat.
In today's hand I get Unibet Poker Pro and Chip Race co-host David Lappin to look at a small pot I played in the Hotter $82. This one is something of a rarity in that it's a hand I thought I played quite well and normally I reserve hand reviews for those I think I messed up. Let's see if David agrees....
It's early in the tournament at the 20/40 level, no read on the table I have only played a few hands. Three players fold, I have KTo, which I open to $88.
First question I guess is do you open this hand at all? It was close and in hindsight I prefer folding, I would have folded in earlier position without hesitation.
David Lappin: This is a rock-bottom open from the lo-jack (or kidnap as I call it), definitely a fine raise in a weak field, probably a fold in a tough field. In this mid-stakes turbo format, I think it’s just about OK.
The flop comes JT3 rainbow, so we have 2nd pair. I bet $93 into a $281 pot and he calls. Do you like this bet and bet size? I generally put the guy on small pairs, suited connectors and broadway hands. I think most Aces that play would reraise, as would the premium hands. I think AT, KQ, QT, 9T, 88, 99, 89 would all call my flop bet.
David Lappin: I think you’ve ranged him pretty well here although I do think that there are more Ax combos in there. I think the hand plays better as a check-call. Out of position, we need to bolster our checking range so we don’t have too many check/give-ups.
Underpairs have 9% so protecting versus them is not a big factor. We block KQ, the draw with the best equity and 89s is not always in our opponent’s range.
Getting value from weaker Tx and 99/88 is a reason to bet now but it is not a compelling enough reason as those draws are not a big enough part of our Villain’s range so it’s not worth targeting those to the detriment of our check-calling range. Balance is the name of the game without reads so I would prefer not to take an exploitative line.
That said, if you are going to bet as a mild exploit, I like your small sizing.
The turn brings another Jack, I bet $154 into a $467 pot. The turn is where my biggest question is. I felt like the Jack changed very little about the hand, as I was behind any Jacks anyway. So I kept the turn bet small because it felt like all the hands I mentioned above would call a second small bet, figuring the same thing. Does that make sense to you? Would you bet here and if so, how much?
David Lappin: PRO TIP: When you hear the phrase ‘as played’ in poker, you know you have already jumped out of the game tree.
With that in mind, ‘as played’, I prefer a check here. You are absolutely correct that this card doesn’t change much so for a lot of the reasons given on the flop, I think the hand is a nice one to keep in our check/call range. Had the flop gone check-check, we would have sufficiently weakened our opponent’s range to pursue some value here. Given his flop call, that range is strengthened so I prefer a check-call.
However, if you are going to bet, a small bet is definitely best.
The river brings another Ten giving us a Full House, I check, Villain bets $497 into a $775 pot and I call. The river I actually think I played correctly. We are still losing to a Jack, any Ten hand is chopping with us, I don’t think pocket 3s ever made it this far without reraising and I don’t think AA-QQ were ever in the hand after the flop. So my logic was check the river and let all the missed draws and counterfeighted pocket pairs bluff at me. I also felt I’m only getting called by a better hand if I bet or check raised.
David Lappin: I agree. On the river, you have a nice bluff catcher and there is no sense in raising as our Villain could have Jx. Your small c-bet and small turn bet combined with a check could well be interpreted by the Villain as AK/AQ/KQ/89 so he might stab with his own missed draws and sticky underpairs. I think you played the river perfectly.
Luckily for me in this instance I was correct and Villain had a missed straight draw.
Play for balance without reads
Big thanks to David for this one and bringing me down to earth after assuming I played this really well. I have two big takeaways from the review. The first one is that I didn't really consider my check/calling range and ensuring I had some strong hands in that. Moreover, the other big mistake was betting small on two streets without any reads that my opponent would call them wide.
If you want more analysis like this, David along with Dara O'Kearney have just launched Season 10 of the Chip Race, which includes a regular strategy section, as well as interviews with the biggest names in poker. The next episode on the new series features Patrik Antonius, Laurynas Levinskas, Ryan Laplante and Kat Arnsby.
Thoughts on the hand? Let us know in the comments:
