GTO Poker Theories - Grey Rhino Events

It's only a matter of time before that big avoidable danger catches up to you, in poker and in life.

One of the real gifts poker has given me is that it has been a great jumping off point to learn things from other disciplines like economics, AI, psychology and Game Theory. So here is a series of articles where I bring some of the most interesting things I have learned from other subjects outside of poker which are applicable in this game we know and love.

We have previously written about Black Swan events. These are events that are a big surprise, have a major impact and after the first recorded incident, they are rationalised as obvious in hindsight. In my piece I gave the example of Black Friday in poker which was a huge shock, it changed the game forever and in hindsight many think we should have seen it coming. 

Grey Rhino events are often confused with Black Swan events, but are very different. Coined by policy analyst Michele Wucker, the term 'Grey Rhino' refers to a highly probable, high-impact event that is often overlooked due to its slow and steady approach. Grey Rhinos are usually visible, unlike their counterpart, the Black Swan. However, people tend to neglect or underestimate their impact, leading to significant consequences when they eventually arrive.

Climate Change, disruption by technologies like AI, and even the economic shockwaves after lockdown are all good examples of Grey Rhino events. These are all things that have been warned about and are visible in the distance, but still, people act surprised when their impact is felt later down the line. 

The name Grey Rhino is a perfect visualisation, because unlike a Black Swan which few people have seen in real life, you should be able to see a big slow Grey Rhino heading towards you. While both Grey Rhinos and Black Swans represent high-impact events, the key difference lies in their predictability. Grey Rhinos are foreseeable and often result from inaction or complacency, whereas Black Swans are inherently unpredictable and challenge our understanding of the world. 

It's only a matter of time

Black Friday was, for most people, a Black Swan event. Few of us paid attention to the regulatory side of poker at the time and the online game was still in its infancy. Nobody thought that it would end with the US Department of Justice shutting down the poker rooms. 

There are plenty of Grey Rhino events that poker players today seem incapable or unwilling to see, even though they are right there in plain sight. Bad game selection and poor bankroll management are perhaps the best two examples. If you play outside of your bankroll or skill level, you will eventually go broke. That is a fact of the game, as visible as a huge great mammal running towards you. Variance might slow it down, but don't act surprised when it happens if it happens to you.   

Likewise not working on your game is another one of those things that eventually will lead to your downfall. There is so much talk about GTO and solvers these days, if you actively ignore these things then the game is going to pass you by. It is in plain sight that modern players need to understand these concepts and only a matter of time before they catch up to you. 

Playing on an unregulated site is another Grey Rhino. We have seen already that governments will not allow unlicensed operators to continue forever. If you have money on one of these sites it is a case of when, not if, they get taken down. 

Poker players don't mind risk and are probably optimists by nature, but there is no excuse for not being able to see that big Grey Rhino running toward them. 

What theories from outside of poker have helped your game? Let us know in the comments.

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