GTO Poker Theories - The Surface Area of Luck

You can't control the cards but you can influence how many lucky possibilities might come your way with this mental model.

One of the real gifts poker has given me is that it has been a great jumping-off point to learn things from other disciplines like economics, AI, psychology, and Game Theory. So here is a series of articles where I bring some of the most interesting things I have learned from other subjects outside of poker which are applicable to this game we know and love.

Luck Surface Area is a mental model illustrating how one can augment their chances of experiencing lucky events in life. The model suggests that luck can be envisioned as random arrows flying around, and to get hit by one of these arrows, it's essential to increase your 'target' size—your Luck Surface Area. 

The first principle to enhance one's Luck Surface Area is the "Do & Tell" mantra. While hard work is crucial, sharing what you're working on with the world is equally important. Every new person who learns about your work increases the chances of a lucky event, making marketing your efforts as vital as the efforts themselves. This principle underscores the importance of visibility and networking in attracting luck, essentially converting your hard work into opportunities for fortunate encounters.

Curiosity also plays a pivotal role in expanding one's Luck Surface Area. Following one's curiosity not only fosters deep knowledge but also enables the making of unique connections between disparate pieces of information. Just like Newton's apple, a curious mind can discern luck in situations where others see mundane occurrences. Moreover, the principle of allowing serendipity—by going to social gatherings, joining digital communities, and meeting new people—enhances the likelihood of unforeseen lucky events. Each new interaction can potentially expand your Luck Surface Area, propelling you closer to fortuitous happenstance.

Building a personal brand is another effective strategy to attract luck. By creating value for others and becoming known for something specific, individuals can build a reputation that attracts luck. The idea is to become a magnet for luck rather than merely waiting for it to occur. Lastly, viewing luck as an improvable skill, rather than a fixed trait, can significantly augment one's Luck Surface Area. By actively working on these strategies, individuals cease to be passive recipients of luck and instead become active attractors of fortune, thereby substantially increasing their Luck Surface Area and the potential for success in their endeavours.

Lucky game selection

I think poker players can learn a lot from this, most notably the simple idea of increasing the surface area for luck to happen to you. One way we can do this is by game selection and promo selection. 

If two online poker rooms offer similar cash games, but one has a Bad Beat Jackpot, you significantly increase your chances of getting lucky in the latter. If you play HUSNGs then it's not the biggest change to move over to Spin & Go where you have a chance of getting very lucky. 

Specifically the 'Do & Tell' mantra is relevant in the age of social media. There are so many promotions these days that simply reward a little bit of extraversion. Our friends at The Chip Race recently gave away a Unibet Open package for the best bad beat story, for example. The WPT World Championship and PSPC both give out high-stakes packages for social media giveaways. Next week in Vegas two players will successfully 'audition' to be a Loose Cannon in the PokerStars Big Game. 

I personally can attest to the personal branding principle. I am known in poker circles as the satellite guy, the ICM guy and the PKO guy because of my previous books and a lot of good opportunities have come my way because of it. 

The examples are endless. The main point I would make is that we shy away from the luck aspect of poker too much because we are so precious about the skill component of the game. Luck is significant in poker, but you can increase your chances of getting into lucky events. 

What theories from outside of poker have helped your game? Let us know in the comments.

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