Bubble Factor explained

Bubble Factor is one of the most important concepts in tournament poker and luckily ICMIZER can simplify it for you.

We are giving away a bunch of ICMIZER 3 subs at the moment which was a great opportunity for me to write about my favourite feature of the software - Bubble Factor. Bubble Factor is a concept we discussed at length in Endgame Poker Strategy: The ICM Book and ICMIZER is the only ICM solver that shows it. 

Bubble Factor is a measure of how much more losing hurts you than winning rewards you in the late stages of MTTs. In particular it shows you how much more profitable/costly it can be to tangle with different players at different times. If you are 2nd in chips and take on the short stack that is not much for you to worry about, if you play the same way against the overall chip leader you are going to burn money in tournaments.

The higher your Bubble Factor, the tighter you should play in tournaments. When you run a sim in ICMIZER it will show you the ranges you can shove or call. If you really want to learn about ICM, you should also pay attention to the Bubble Factors. Let's look at an example.

This is the bubble of a 9-max SNG with payouts of $1,000/$700/$400. The chipleader has shoved under-the-gun:

ICMIZER gives the Big Blind a calling range of KK+, even AK is a fold. Because the Big Blind has such a tight calling range, the chipleader can profitably shove 51% of hands. Most people understand this dynamic on bubbles and final tables, but would have a hard time estimating the ranges on the fly. 

Bubble Factor is relative

ICMIZER also shows you the Bubble Factor of each player against each other player for this set-up. It looks like this:

This table doesn't just show you how tight the Big Blind should be against the chipleader, it shows you how tight everyone should be against everyone else. The Big Blind has the highest Bubble Factor of 3.08 against the chipleader because the leader is the only person who can eliminate them. 

Look, however, what happens if it was the short stack who shoved on the Big Blind. The Big Blind's Bubble Factor is 1.02, which is functionally no ICM at all it would be the same as a ChipEV spot. This is because with just four big blinds, the shorty represents no threat at all. When it is the short stack facing a call for their all-in life their Bubble Factor is a bit tighter, but still very wide, because they have to make a move here at some point. 

Even more curious when the Small Blind, who is third in chips, is pondering a call from the Short Stack. Their Bubble Factor is 0.88 which is wider than ChipEV, they can call with 46% equity here. This is because as third in chips, most of their equity is tied up in the mincash. Getting rid of the short stack is a massive result for them, so much so they can call a little wider than usual to justify it. 

An easy concept to develop an instinct for

You can get the equity you need to call an all-in using Bubble Factor, it is:

Bubble Factor/Bubble Factor+1.

So our Big Blind with 3.08 Bubble Factor would be:

3.08/4.08 = 75% equity. 

Quite simply, Bubble Factor shows you who to avoid and who to bully in tournaments. Nobody is going to push around the short stack in our example, but the two biggest stacks can push the 2nd shortest stack around as long as the micro stack is still in it. The player who is third in chips should avoid the two players who cover him, and so on. 

Bubble Factor is one of the most important lessons in ICM but you don't need to be able to work it out perfectly. Bubble Factor is a relative metric, your Bubble Factor against one player is not the same as it is against another. If you played around with the Bubble Factor stats in ICMIZER you can quickly develop an instinct for who to avoid and who to target in tournaments. 

Win an ICMIZER 3 sub that will blow your mind!

PokerStrategists rejoice as this Christmas season brings another special edition of our weekly community raffle! This time around we are highlighting our software partner ICMIZER 3, running the special edition raffle these next three weeks until the start of 2023.

Up for grabs are quarterly subcriptions of ICMIZER 3 Pro worth $112 and $67 in the 3-in-1 Full Package, with the main prize also coming with lightning-fast calculations through the Nitro addon offered by ICMIZER.

ICMIZER 3 is the current edition of a modern and visually attractive 3-in-1 tournament training software which includes a comprehensive ICM and Nash equilibrium calculator, an interactive MTT Coach with quizzes on a broad range of diverse spots, and a user-friendly Replayer tightly integrated with all other features of ICMIZER 3.

If you'd like to see a preview on what to expect from the software, take a look around the official ICMIZER 3 website, outlining all the details and capabilities of the popular software, used by thousands of tournament enthusiasts every day.

How to take part in the special raffle

As before, tickets for the weekly raffle are earned by completing various tasks on our website or partner rooms throughout each week, with varying amounts of tickets given away for different tasks. More details on all that right here:

How do the poker tasks work?

Apart from the quarterly ICMIZER 3 subcriptions, we are also still giving away a range of several smaller cash prizes in the special edition raffle, making sure everyone has a fair chance of bagging a prize each week.