Can ChatGPT play Pocket Jacks?

We ask ChatGPT, Gemini and Grok the same strategy question then compare their answers to GTO Wizard.

AI is going to take all our jobs and, let's be honest, probably going to kill us all or at least imprison us Matrix-style. But how good are the Large Language Models at poker?

I asked them how to play Pocket Jacks. This was the question:

You are in a $1/$2 game with $200 behind and open to $5 with JsJd. The BTN calls and the blinds fold. What range are you putting the BTN on?

ChatGPT

When the BTN calls your open pre-flop, their range can be quite broad, especially given that they have position. Considering common hands that the BTN might call with, we can include:

• Broadway Hands: KQ, KJ, QJ, JT, AJ, AQ, AT
• Suited Connectors and One-Gappers: T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s
• Pocket Pairs: 22 to TT (likely 3-bets QQ+)
• Suited Aces: A2s to A5s, Axs
• Offsuit Aces: ATo, AJo, AQo
• Other Suited Hands: KQs, KJs, QJs, JTs

Google Gemini

The BTN's calling range from the button can be wide on this flop texture. Here's a breakdown of what they might have:

• Strong hands: The BTN might have hands that beat yours right now, like AA, KK, or AK. However, these are less likely because they might have re-raised pre-flop with such strong hands.
• Pairs: The BTN could have lower pocket pairs (e.g., 88-TT) that might feel ahead on the flop but are behind your top pair.
• Suited connectors: The BTN might have suited connectors (e.g., 76s, 87s, 98s) that flopped a straight or flush draw.
• A-x suited: The BTN could be playing A-x suited hands (like ATs, AJd) for potential straight and flush draws.

Grok

You can put them on a fairly wide range, including:

• Strong aces: Hands like AK, AQ, AJ, or AT that have a lot of equity against your range.
• Flush draws: Hands like 5c4c, 6c5c, or 9c8c that have a lot of equity against your range.
• Suited connectors: Hands like 76s, 87s, or 98s that can hit straights or flushes and have decent equity.
• Middle pairs: Hands like 88, 99, or TT that are ahead of your hand pre-flop but might be cautious post-flop.

GTO Wizard

Quite vague and consistent advice from the LLMs, so I thought I would compare it to a supercomputer that actually knew the game. This is the BTN calling range from GTO Wizard:

The LLMs have pretty much got it right. They all acknowledged that the really big hands like QQ+ would likely have raised pre and mostly got the rest of the hands right. 

So I followed up with:

The flop is Ac7c2d. You are the first to act. What do you do?

ChatGPT

Given the presence of the Ace and the potential for the BTN to have a wide range, checking might be the more prudent play. This allows you to control the pot size and gather more information about the BTN's hand. If the BTN bets, you can then decide whether to continue based on their bet size and tendencies.

Google Gemini

Given the flop of Ac7c2d, your first action should be a bet of around $7-$10. Here's why:

• Strong hand: You have a very strong hand with top pair, two broadway cards (JJ), and a flush draw.
• Wet flop: The flop is very wet, meaning there are four different cards to the straight and two different suits for a flush. This makes it likely that your opponent (BTN) could be drawing to something.
• Position: You're in good position (UTG) compared to the BTN. This allows you to control the pot size and potentially build a bigger pot if you improve your hand on the turn or river.

Grok

Your first action would be to check. This is a standard play in this spot, as you have a strong hand but want to control the pot size and avoid putting too much money in with a vulnerable hand.

GTO Wizard

OK now the advice is starting to look very questionable. ChatGPT and Grok both suggest checking for pot control, which seems solid advice. Google Gemini, however, has suggested that we lead out and also said that we are in 'good position compared to the BTN' which is obviously factually wrong. 

This is what GTO Wizard suggests:

JJ is heavily incentivised to check. It is a strong bluff catcher but if it bet, it will likely only get called by Ace-x hands or hands with good equity against us. When we check in GTO World the BTN checks back a lot, but they have a lot of overbets including a 150% overbet. When the BTN makes that 150% overbet, UTG folds JJ unless it has a club in GTO World.  

Let's see what the LLM's do in the same spot:

ChatGPT

Call: Given the information, calling seems to be the best play. Here's why:

• You maintain pot control and don't over-commit with a potentially second-best hand.
• You allow the BTN to continue bluffing or betting with worse hands on later streets.
• You can re-evaluate on the turn, where you might gain more information about the BTN's hand.

By calling, you keep the BTN's range wide and avoid making a big mistake by folding the best hand or by committing too much with a raise.

Google Gemini

In this situation, you should strongly consider folding your hand. Here's why:

• Pre-flop: While JsJd is a strong hand pre-flop, it's not the strongest. It's vulnerable to any Ace-high hand, higher pocket pairs, and suited connectors that can flop a straight or flush. By opening to $5, you're inviting calls from a wider range of hands.
• Flop: The flop is particularly dangerous for your hand. The Ac gives your opponent a strong chance of having an Ace-high holding, which dominates yours. The 7c and 2d bring the possibility of straights and flushes, further reducing your outs.
• Betting Pattern: The villain's bet sizing of 150% pot is a significant red flag. This large bet indicates a strong hand on the flop.
• Your Position: Being out of position makes it even harder to play this hand profitably. You don't have good information about your opponent's hand, and they can potentially bluff you out of the pot later in the hand.

Given these factors, folding is the most appropriate course of action. You're behind on the flop in a bad position, and the villain's bet sizing suggests a strong hand.

Here are some additional points to consider:

• Reads on the Villain: If you have any reads on the villain being overly aggressive or prone to bluffing, you might consider calling as a small play. However, given the dangerous flop texture, this is a risky option.
• Stack Sizes: If you have a very deep stack relative to the pot size, you might consider calling to see more cards. However, with $200 behind, a call wouldn't leave you with much room to maneuver later in the hand.

By folding your hand here, you minimize your losses and can wait for a better opportunity to utilize your strong pre-flop hand.

Grok

This is a tough spot. On the one hand, I have a strong hand with a top pair, but there's a flush draw and a straight draw on the board. On the other hand, the BTN's bet is massive, which could mean they have a very strong hand or they're trying to push me off a weaker hand.

After some careful consideration, I'm going to fold. The BTN's bet is too large for me to call with just a top pair, and I don't want to risk my entire stack on this hand. I'll live to fight another day.

So, I fold. And then I go home and cry myself to sleep because I just lost $5. But hey, at least I didn't lose my entire stack!

Conclusion

Grok played the hand like a Nit, but was ultimately right and injected a bit of humour into the proceedings. Gemini got there too but with some very wonky logic. ChatGPT gets it wrong and is clearly a calling station. 

An important thing to remember is that LLMs are not (yet) sentient beings with memories and motivations. They have just trawled gazillions of data points to try to show you an answer that sounds correct. A quick glance at any of these answers and they sound quite compelling, but all of them are flawed. 

So I am not worried about LLMs taking over poker, for now. I am simply worried about them taking my job and possibly killing me, and everyone I ever loved. 

Which LLM had the best answer? Let us know in the comments: