How much value can I get with 2nd pair?
SpinLegends Coach Epistokrat reviews a hand played by Barry Carter where he wondered how much value he can get from a medium hand.
In this new series PokerStrategy Editor Barry Carter gets a relatively 'standard' hand reviewed by a professional player to see if it was a trivial decision or not. In case you missed it, his first hand was in a PKO and was reviewed by Dara O'Kearney.
I consider myself pretty decent with my preflop ranges and how to play the big pots in Spin & Go, but my leaks tend to come in small pots where I have a 'tweener' hand where it's not clear how much value I can extract from it.
Today I get SpinLegends Coach Epistokrat to review a small pot I played at the 10/20 level of a $5 Spin & Go. No reads on my heads-up opponent:
This seems like a reasonable hand to raise preflop given the Jack and the Eight are somewhat coordinated and we have the button.
Epistokrat: Both limping and minraising can be best depending on the opponent's tendencies. Assuming we are readless I advise to raise here. The player's best response is to defend a little over 80% of his hands. Most Villains fold too much in the $5 Spin & Go format. A hand like J8o benefits from this behaviour, so let's give Villain the option to make the mistake.
I miss completely but think a small bet is good to fire when it is checked to us. I usually bet small when I hit this flop to keep bad hands in, and I figure the King is a good scare card for us to represent.
Epistokrat: I like your small sizing on this texture. Whether or not checking with the intention to delay the bet or C-betting is preferable depends a lot on Villain's folding and raising frequency. Readless, I advise to C-bet. Notice that most people tend to continue K-high and of course their top pairs as well, on this board it's the same, so the strategy of "continuing Kx, continuing top pair“ will result in more folds on this board than usual. Additionally Villain's flop starting distribution contains only a few straight draws and 3x as he is likely to have folded a lot of these combinations preflop. Therefore I expect overfolding in this situation.
I would not worry too much about balancing your range, the $5 player pool is huge! Just use the small sizing in this spot for bluffing and when you have Pocket AA on this board you can still decide between half pot or minbet depending on Villain being aggressive/stationy to you so far. Your logic is not flawed, you are just singling out one particular true benefit of betting small, but of course there are other factors to consider (folding frequency, raising frequency, value lost due to smaller sizing when called, starting distribution on later streets).
I hit 2nd pair on the turn. As I am not too worried about Villain having top pair, I fire a second barrel, keeping it small to keep worse hands in. I figured 4-5, a flush draw and smaller pairs might still call. Is this a good spot to value bet and should I have bet bigger?
Epistokrat: Against strong players, this board asks for using an overbet sizing. Due to few nuts in Villain's range (no straights, no flushes, very few sets, few 2-pairs) we would take a polar strategy of lots of bluffs and nutted hands, while selecting a big sizing between full pot and 1.5 pot overbet.
That said we are playing a recreational player here, J8o does not fit into that big sizing at all, we would fold too many hands we beat and we will not fold any Kx. So vs a strong reg this should be a check, but in this case vs recreational player we can try to get away with a half pot sizing, it's especially good against opponents who are more stationy and would continue at least all 6x and most 3x. If we have on the other hand reason to believe that our opponent might be aggressive on the turn, checking with the intention of bluff catching river is the highest EV line.
He calls and the river is a six, neither flush got there. I really felt like we were good most of the time here but could not see a worse hand calling me on the river. Any pair of sixes got there on the river and I doubt many 3s are still in, so I felt we are only getting called by better or at best chopping with another Jack.
Epistokrat: Just checking for showdown is best, we don't even beat Jx anymore and 3x and Ax are highly limited in Villain's river starting distribution. You summed it up very well, your kicker doesn't play anymore, 3x and Ax are quite limited, so just checking is best. Notice that reopening the action also means he has the option to turn a hand you would beat by checking into a bluff-raise
Reasons to bet small
It looks like for the most part my instincts were right, both on when to bet and the amount to bet. I picked this hand for analysis because I have found myself betting small in a lot of these spots and not having a comprehensive answer why other than to 'keep my opponent wide'. As Epistokrat says, the player population is way too big to worry about balancing, however in a low stakes game it does seem like you can get away with these small value bets.
My thanks to Epistokrat who is one of our Head Coaches over at SpinLegends. If you want to get top level coaching, a Spin & Go bankroll and world class support with like minded players, send us an application and become a Spin Crusher.
Thoughts on the hand? Let us know in the comments:
