Poker Basics - Reverse Implied Odds

A lesson for new players that sometimes hitting your draw can be the worst result for you.

Recently we explained implied odds, which was an estimation you can make about how much you can win on future streets if you hit your big draw. 

Learning about implied odds can sometimes result in a leak with new players which can thankfully be corrected when they learn about this next concept - reverse implied odds. 

As the name suggests, this is an estimation on how much you might lose on future streets if you hit your draw. Understanding this can stop you from going broke when you hit bad draws.

When you are thinking about calling a bet, you should also factor in whether hitting your hand could lead to you losing money rather than winning it. 

When your outs help your opponent

It's best to explain this with an example, let's say you have 5 4 on a flop of 7 6 6. Your opponent fires out a bet. 

Any 3 or 8 on the turn or river could give you a straight and thus you are pondering a call. This is a good spot if your opponent has an overpair type hand but here are so many bad cards for you. 

If the turn comes a 3 or 8 you make your straight but now there is a potential flush out there. If the turn comes any 8 then you also lose to any combination of 9T which would make a superior straight. Even if the turn comes a card like 3 you make the best straight but if your opponent has 3 3 they have just made a full house. This is before we even factor in that any combination of 76, 66 or 77 has also made a full house or better against you. Even if you hit the preferred 3 on the turn any heart or 8 on the river could hurt you, and literally every remaining card in the deck could make a full house.

The problem is that when you do hit your straight you have to keep putting money in the pot, you can't just check down such a strong hand. The better option would have been to muck your second best draw.

Reverse implied odds also play a big part in preflop hand selection, especially when you play weak hands like A7 passively. If you hit your Ace you cannot simply fold because it would be easy to exploit you, but you are often up against a better Ace.  As a general principle, avoid proceeding with hands that do not draw to the nuts or at least the very near nuts.   

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