"They never call with worse" l Barry's Strategy Corner

What should you do if you have a set when a flush is possible, and you think your opponent would never call with worse?

When reviewing a hand last year, my coach managed to trick me into revealing a flaw in my thinking.

I had 2nd top set on the river, but a flush came in. I was facing a bet, and I just called. 

I reasoned "no worse hand would call me".

He said "how often do you raise here as a bluff?"

Not often, I would say.

"If your opponents are folding sets on this river, why aren't you bluffing all the time?" he replied. 

When they never call near nut hands

Let's dive into GTO Wizard to look at what would happen if our opponents truly never called the river raise with near nut hands (and these players do exist).

We have gotten to a river, LJ vs BB, and the board ran out K♠8♥2♦7♥A♥. The BB has lead 40% pot into the LJ. 

This is what the LJ does:

The flushes all raise, obviously, but every set does too. We also see two pair raise just under half the time. When the LJ does raise all-in, this is what the BB does:

Every flush calls, but so does every set, and two pair mostly calls.

Let’s say you have KK for 2nd best set, and you have decided that a set of eights or worse, never calls. This is what the solver would have you do instead:

Well done, your set of Kings does not raise anymore, but look at the rest of the range. Everything becomes a bluff or a flush value bet. A set of twos and a set of sevens becomes a bluff, too.

If you truly believe your opponent never calls worse, you should pounce on that and punish them on every river. 

In reality most players will call off with worse hands here, but in both realities, we should be reraising a lot here.