Trivial folds with AK l Strategy with Barry

When ICM pressure is significant, any unpaired hand, even Big Slick, goes way down in value.

A friend recently sent me a satellite hand where he was the chip leader near a bubble and was facing a short stack shove in early position with AKo. He folded the hand and messaged me to double-check that it was a trivial fold. 

It turns out it was quite a close spot in GTO World, but I still think it was a decent fold. I replied back that, broadly speaking, AKo is not the powerhouse some people think it is when ICM pressure is significant. Avoiding calling with an unpaired hand is never a huge mistake. 

AK performs very well against tight ranges, but practically speaking, any hand you are up against will have at least one immediate out against you.

A powerful bluff, not an amazing call

This is the specific satellite scenario my friend sent me. It was the UTG player who went all-in for 6bbs. We were two places off the money. 

This is the GTO calling range for my friend who was in middle position with 12bbs:

As you can see, AK is a call, but look at the profitability of the hand. It's barely profitable. I would argue we were probably up against a tighter range than GTO would advocate for, which would only make it weaker. 

This would be my friend's calling range if, in the exact same scenario, we were actually on the satellite bubble:

AK is now unprofitable; in fact, QQ is barely a call. JJ is unprofitable, but notice it is less unprofitable than AK. We'd rather have a pair here than two big overcards. 

It isn't just satellites where this happens either. In extremely high ICM situations and regular tournaments, an unpaired hand can be a fold. For example, this scenario here, which is on the bubble, UTG 1 has opened, the LJ has shoved, and the HJ has called. 

The next four players to act all have this calling range:

It's true that AK blocks the really strong hands that dominate it, but one of the reasons why it is a powerful hand is that those properties make it a great bluff. As a calling hand, it is by no means anywhere near as powerful, especially when ICM pressure is significant.