Why running it twice doesn't change much
Your expectation does not change when running it twice in cash games, it just makes variance a little smoother.
Running it twice is a fun part of cash game poker, but does it actually give a player an edge?
The reality is that over the long term it makes no difference whether you run it once, twice, three times or more.
Take a look at these recent cash game hand between Arden Cho and 'Mike X':
The classic coinflip. Mike had 49% equity against Cho with 51% equity. It was a $32,800 pot so Cho's EV was $16,278.
They then agreed to run it twice. What does this do to the equities? One of these things will happen, assuming no unlikely chop pots:
- Cho wins both pots 26.01% of the time
- Mike wins both pots 24.01% of the time
- They both win one pot 49.98% of the time
The way this impacts EV is as follows:
(26.01% x $32,800 = $8,531.28) + (49.98% x $16,400 = $8,196.72) = Cho's EV after running it twice is $16,728.
So it is the same whether she runs it twice or not. The odds do change between runouts, for example after the board ran the first flop Cho was a 55.12% favourite to win the second runout, mostly because one of the Kings had been dealt. However, at the point the decision was made the EV was the same.
There are lots of reasons to run it twice, most notably because it makes the game more fun for amateur players. Crucially it is a way to reduce variance, especially in hands that play themselves like AK vs QQ always does. But over the long term, it does not make a difference.
Do you run it twice in cash games? Let us know in the comments:
