You are (probably) shoving too much

You should shove less, not more, when ICM is significant, so says Dara O'Kearney.

PokerStrategy.com editor Barry Carter may not be good at much, but he is really good at getting things wrong, which is useful for giving you jumping-off points to discuss the correct way to play. 

This week he was talking to me about shoving preflop with 20bbs when ICM is significant and how he did it, a lot. This is actually, a mistake, but to be fair to Barry, a lot of people make the same error. 

On the image below, on the left is a 20bb Chip EV preflop range for the BTN when folded to them. On the right is the 20bb range for the BTN, everyone has similar stacks, on the bubble. 

There are no limps in the ICM version, but let's focus on the shoves. You should notice two things about them. 

First of all, we shove half as often with ICM (not the other way around). Secondly, while the shoves are similar types of hands, they are a little bit stronger in the ICM version. 

Unexploitable, but not the best strategy

We shove less often when ICM is a factor for a couple of reasons.

First of all, it's often an equity disaster if our shove gets called, which is why our overall shoving range is stronger.

Min raising will still steal plenty of blinds, and you can get away from the weak part of your range if you get reraised. 

Secondly, we can exert more ICM pressure for less with the open. Shoving gives your opponent an easy decision most of the time, but it's much tougher on them, especially as the BB, when it's just a min raise. 

If you have a post flop edge, this is even more true. You don't want to give your opponents easy decisions and you can make much more money by forcing them into pots they don't want to play.  

The reason many players over-shove their range in ICM spots is because they get the positive reinforcement of it working a lot of the time. If you have survived your fair share of bubbles by shoving instead of opening, it can make sense that it's a profitable strategy. 

If you don't have a post flop edge, shove more. It can often be an unexploitable strategy (just not the best strategy when you have an edge). 

You can get Dara's free book on effective poker study by joining his mailing list.