evYpe analysis: Check-fold or check-raise?
Russian coach evYpe reviews a key heads-up hand from a Super High Roller. Was it a bad play by Kenney or is McKeehen is simply too good?
McKeehen vs Kenney: overplay or a great call?
The Super High Roller arena will always be a fruitful source of interesting hands and plays. This is heads-up at the 2016 PCA Super High Roller with a buy-in of $100,000. Joe McKeehen as you all know is the 2015 WSOP World Champion. He is a professional poker player and has already shown that his Main Event win wasn't a fluke.
Bryn Kenney is an accomplished regular on the Super High Roller scene. He has numerous final tables to his name, and after finishing third in this very tournament in both 2011 and 2015, he is definitely no underdog here.
Both players are in search of their first Super High Roller title, and right now their chances look almost equal. However that's going to change after this hand. It's a classic example of the dynamics created when playing with wide ranges:
That's the 153rd hand of the final table. Joe McKeehen has 33 BBs which is a little less than Kenney's 38 BBs. McKeehen raised to 400,000 with K 6 , and Bryn Kenney called with A 2 . The flop came down 6 4 Q . Kenney check-called a bet of 340,000, the 3 appeared on the turn, and action went check-check.
The 3 river saw Kenney check, McKeehen bet 1 million, and Kenney check-raise to 3.37 million.
"I was value betting," McKeehen said before thinking over the situation. Eventually he made the call and took down a massive pot to chip up to 10.87 million. Kenney was left with 3.625 million.
The hand in detail by evYpe
The preflop play is pretty standard. On the flop McKeehen caught a second pair, and a continuation bet is a good decision as his hand is very vulnerable. Joe needs to protect his hand against Kenney's equity on this board. Kenney decides to stay in the pot with his Ax thinking that on such a dry board his opponent bets very wide. Besides Bryn has an equity advantage. He can either use his showdown value or try and bluff McKeehen off his hand later. After Joe's bet Kenney needs only 22% equity to call.
Even if we exclude bluffs with total garbage and assume that McKeehen bets with all his made hands and lots of weak Ax, Kenney's Ð2о has 28% equity. That's definitely enough for a check-call.
The turn goes check-check. That's also quite standard as both for Kenney and McKeehen, that 3 is a good card.
The river gets much more interesting. Kenney checks probably hoping for a free showdown as his Ax might be the best hand here after opponent's check on the turn. McKeehen understands that Kenney has some weak showdown value not strong enough for a bet on the river. Joe decides to make a thin value bet hoping to get a call from a weaker 6 or a 4. This is a correct decision, and I totally agree with it.
McKeehen bets pretty big — 2/3 of the pot — trying to make it look like he wants to force his opponent out of the hand. He intentionally polarizes his range. Kenney for his part makes a good read. He understands that in such situations he can't call. If you know that your opponent is value betting thin you should either check-fold or check-raise hoping to get a fold from some showdown value.
Kenney opts for an aggressive line which I like as a player and a viewer. Kenney check-raises to 3.37 m chips giving McKeehen 2.5:1 pot odds. For McKeehen the decision is particularly tough, because if he calls and loses he is most likely out of the tournament with a very small stack.
Kenney made a good play putting pressure on his opponent. The only argument against his check-raise is the river card. That 3 makes his raise very polarized. Kenney has a very narrow value range which consists of treys, flopped sets, and a straight with 75s. The total number of these combinations is too low.
McKeehen showed that he has guts, but both moves on the river are very skillful and courageous. As an alternative Kenney could go all-in maximizing his fold equity. The call for McKeehen would be too expensive and that could make him fold his pair of 6s.
What do you think about this hand? Was it a good move by Kenney on the river? Would you call in McKeehen's place? Let us know in the comments!
