Tice vs Becker is the prop bet of the Summer
The Young Guns crossbook bet everyone is talking about essentially is has us all betting on the GTO vs Exploitative poker debate.
As is customary, the moment the WSOP schedule is released, interesting prop bets begin to unfold. This year everyone is talking about Tice vs Becker.
Daniel Negreanu got the ball rolling by announcing he is crossbooking Jeremy Becker vs Landon Tice at the WSOP over 25 events. What this means is he is betting that Becker will win more money than Tice and match his profit, up to $250k.
Bet booked@Jbex2417 vs @LandonTice
Mutually played events 25 minimum this summer
100% crossbook with a $250k cap on events $10k and under.
Good luck boys!
Which side do you like?
— Daniel Negreanu (@RealKidPoker) February 17, 2024
If you check out his Twitter post, you will see everyone in poker (myself included) has got in on the action picking the player they think will win.
This has been dubbed a 'Young Guns' event with two young players making their name in poker. In actuality, this is a GTO vs exploitative poker prop bet.
Tice is famously known as the 'Child of the Sim' whereas Becker is a crusher who has never used a solver in his life, in fact, he says he doesn't even own a computer.
GTO for high stakes, but not for the $1,500s?
Tice is already well known in poker as part of the Solve4Why crew and his infamous prop bet with Bill Perkins, which he pulled out of.
If you don't know Becker, just check out his Hendon Mob. While he isn't crushing the Super High Rollers he has an obscene amount of outright wins in the Wynn Nightly $100-$400 tournaments and has been earmarked as destined for greatness.
The poker world seems divided on who will win the bet, with the GTO-focused players largely backing Tice.
This is all well and good in the elite $5,000+ tournaments full of crushers, but GTO does cap your winrate. Becker clearly knows how to play against 'Tourists' and in my opinion will have a big edge in the lower buy-in, large field, MTTs. However, maybe the best chance of a big score is in a lower field, bigger buy-in MTT, giving an advantage to Tice.
Who wants it more?
I have bet on Becker, for several reasons. I think exploitative poker is the way to go for these bets, and for me, his resume of actual tournament wins goes much farther than Tice's theoretical resume (Tice is also more of a cash game player than MTT specialist).
There is also a question of motivation. Unfortunately, Tice's last challenge of this type ended in him quitting 1/4 of the way through, whereas Becker does not seem to ever miss a day playing poker.
The Bill Perkins experience might have helped Tice in this challenge and might have given him the extra motivation to grind. He got himself in good shape since that challenge so I suspect the experience may have lit a fire in his belly in many ways. But for now, I think Becker has the motivational edge too.
As is always the way in poker, a big final table score in the first event of the series could ruin the sweat for everyone. However, this is a very fun bet to get the WSOP started.
Who do you like, Becker or Tice? Let us know in the comments:
