2026 World Series of Poker Predictions
With the WSOP starting in just over a week, Barry Carter lays down some predictions of how he thinks the series will go.
Under 10,000 runners in the Main Event
I'll get the negative one out of the way first because everything else is in the realm of the positive this year for my predictions.
We have enjoyed several years in a row where the main event attracts over 10,000 runners. This year, I think we'll be comfortably under.
Lots of reasons for this. Perhaps the biggest one is Donald Trump's Big Beautiful Bill. A new tax which potentially makes gambling for meaningful stakes unviable, or at least that will be the perception for most Americans.
There is also a geopolitical crisis happening right now. The cost of fuel is skyrocketing, and that will put off would-be travellers. Moreover, America just does not seem that hospitable to visiting foreigners right now, and I can see a lot of international players skipping this year.
Add to that that it's a World Cup year and a few people might skip poker for that reason too. There are no doubt other reasons why people might skip the main event, as well as reasons I'm not factoring in that might help numbers, but I think we will see a lower turnout than we have recently been used to.
Shaun Deen finishes strong in the POY
The World Series Player of the Year race does not conclude in Vegas this year, and there is more incentive for people to participate because there is a big monetary prize this time around.
Despite the extra competition, I fully expect Shaun Deeb to finish the Vegas campaign in a top five position heading into WSOP Paradise.
The reigning two-time POY leader already got off to a great start in Prague, and I can't see him resting on this advantage in Vegas.
The delay will help
This year, ESPN is covering the main event again, and as a result, there is a final table delay of several weeks to avoid clashing with the World Cup.
While the November Nine concept perhaps had its day, I believe this delay will benefit the hype around the series. An immediate example of this is that I believe we will see prediction market involvement in the final table. In fact, it would not surprise me to see the WSOP partner with Kalshi or Polymarket this year.
This time around, the delay is long enough that we can learn more about the finalists, but not too long that we would lose interest. Even though there won't be a World Cup next year, I suspect the delay will stay.
Big YouTube numbers
A lesser talked about aspect of the new broadcast arrangements is the fact that every bracelet event will be streamed for free on YouTube prior to the main event.
I firmly believe that the future of the World Series of Poker broadcast is on YouTube rather than on a channel like ESPN, and my prediction is that we will see incredibly positive numbers for these streams this year.
Most live poker is streamed on YouTube these days, but there is something special about the World Series of Poker brand that makes armchair fans pay attention. My hunch is we will see some of the biggest live poker streams ever seen on YouTube in terms of numbers.
Viral moments
The outcome of YouTube streaming the preliminary events and ESPN streaming the Main Event, not to mention that final table delay, is that I think we will see a Main Event moment go viral this year.
Quite frankly, something strange and often funny happens in the Main Event every year, which becomes a meme in itself. This is not always a positive thing. I shudder to think how poker would have been viewed if last year's Main Event with William Kassouf had been exposed to a much larger audience.
So while I've predicted lower Main Event turnout this year, my big prediction as we head into the World Series of Poker is that the recent changes will be largely positive. My big hope, when GGPoker acquired the World Series of Poker, was that they would make the Main Event broadcast accessible to more people, which they have. I have no doubt there will be bumps in the road this year, but I think the WSOP is heading in the right direction.
What will we see in the WSOP this year? Let us know in the comments:
