Column: How big will One Drop be this year?

Ahead of tomorrow's $111,111 One Drop event, Barry Carter asks whether it can match last year's event in terms of scale?

Antonio Esfandiari

Last year the big story from the WSOP had to be One Drop. The first $1 million buy-in tournament of all time shattered expectations and reached its 48 player cap with ease.

Tomorrow we have another Super High Roller One Drop event. With a $111,111 buy-in it is tiny in comparison, although still the enormous by most standards. The big difference this year is that this event has no player cap, which leads us to wonder just how many people will play it?

A seven figure buy-in event seemed ludicrous, yet it actually managed to sell out with ease, and all of this in the wake of Black Friday, which took more money out of the poker economy than every other controversy in poker combined. All of which suggests demand for a $111,111 buy-in tournament will be ripe.

There have been what most of us would call Super High Roller events at the WSOP prior to One Drop. The annual $50,000 Players Championship and the $40,000 No Limit Anniversary event in 2009. The Anniversary event attracted 201 players while the Players Championship gets just over 100 most years.

Live poker is on the up

Runner up Sam Trickett

This would suggest that a six figure buy-in No Limit Hold'em event would be looking at under 200 runners, given the $40k event was during a much more affluent time in poker (albeit in a real world recession) and that only mustered 201 players.

However overall participation is up by 27% this year at the WSOP and many attendance records have been broken. US players simply play live a lot more now, as most of them still do not have online poker to play yet, so the nosebleed players get their fix at the real life felt.

Plus the overall expense of the WSOP has lowered a little, many of the 'Championship' events are $5,000 instead of $10,000, which means a pros budget might just be able to justify selling some action and taking a shot at the biggest high roller of the year.

The Super High Roller scene

High roller regular Igor Kurganov

Finally there is simply the sheer volume of Super High Roller events this year which suggests we are in for a big event. Not only does the EPT and WPT both have a regular schedule of Super High Roller events, but there is also a lot of action now in Australia and Asia.

In fact it is almost like there is a fully fledged 'Super High Roller Tour' these days which attracts not only tournament pros, but also businessmen and high stakes cash players who normally wouldn't bother.

Playing for six-figure buy-ins is no longer viewed in the same extreme terms as when they were first introduced and I think we will see an impressive field this year at One Drop.

I personally think the over/under line should be set at about 190, and I personally think we will see just over 200 players this year trying to emulate Antonio Esfandiari's success last year.

How many people do you think will play in the $111,1111 One Drop event and why? Tell us your thoughts in the comments box.

Play our $5,000 guaranteed  high roller tomorrow at PokerStars

At PokerStars tomorrow we have our own nosebleed tournament, the biggest buy-in event of the PokerStrategy.com Open Series.

At 18:30 CET on June 26 we are hosting a $5,000 guaranteed event with a $109 buy-in.

We have already incurred $9,750 in overlays during this series, so this could be a must-play event for value hunters not going to Vegas this year.

Event #46: $109 No Limit [$5,000 gtd]

• Name: PokerStrategy Open Series - Event #46
• Tournament starts: June 26 at 18:30 CET
• Tournament password: zSLGKY
• Prize pool: $5,000 guaranteed
• Gametype: No Limit Hold'em

By Barry Carter

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