GTO Poker Theories - Intervention Bias
Sometimes we take action to avoid feeling uncomfortable or uncertain, rather than because we need to.
One of the real gifts poker has given me is that it has been a great jumping-off point to learn things from other disciplines like economics, AI, psychology, and Game Theory. So here is a series of articles where I bring some of the most interesting things I have learned from other subjects outside of poker which are applicable to this game we know and love.
Intervention bias is the tendency to prefer doing something rather than doing nothing, even when staying put might lead to a better result. In investing, this often shows up during market downturns. When prices fall, people feel the urge to take action, to sell, switch funds, or move to cash, because doing nothing feels passive or careless. But reacting in the moment can lead to poor long-term decisions.
During a downturn, it is common for investors to panic and change their investments in the hope of avoiding further losses. They may sell at the bottom and miss the eventual recovery, or move into safer assets too late. These choices are often driven more by emotion than logic. The desire to “take control” can actually lock in losses or reduce future gains, especially when the market rebound is sharp and unexpected.
Avoiding this bias means accepting that short-term pain is sometimes part of long-term growth. A well-planned investment strategy should already take downturns into account. Sticking to the plan, rather than making sudden changes, is often the most effective way to manage risk and reach your financial goals. Being patient and disciplined can be harder than acting, but often much more rewarding.
Action over uncertainty
This is something mental game coach Jared Tendler recognised in his work on tilt. Some players struggle with the uncertainty of downswings, so much so they feel compelled to take action, even when it does not help.
A very common example Jared identified was how people change the games they play on downswing. For example, so many players try PLO when No Limit is not going well for them. Or they start going to the gym, or they get superstitious, or they change their whole routine. All of this, rather than just endure the downswing while trying to play as well as possible.
I have noticed it too. There is a certain type of player who struggles in endgame spots, and will often punt because they crumble under the slow pressure of a bubble. Similar players struggle with deep stacks, and will often overbet simply to force the game into shallow stack-to-pot ratio play. These players cannot handle not knowing what to do, so they take action, even if it's bad action.
It's a very human desire to take action, especially when the stakes are high, the pressure is on, and there is a lot of uncertainty. But often we are taking action as a distraction, trying to avoid feeling uncomfortable, rather than because it's the right thing to do.
What theories from outside of poker have helped your game? Let us know in the comments.
