Recognising good luck in poker
Barry Carter looks at how it is sometimes hard to know when we have been fortunate, both on and off the tables.
The greatest lesson poker has taught me about life is how to recognise variance. I regularly refer to life events as being good variance/bad variance/high variance etc. Poker has really helped me handle bad fortune in my life, as well as allowed me to enjoy the lucky moments guilt free.
Earlier this year I had a connecting flight in New York and not much time to get it. The pilot on my first plane announced the connecting flight was at Terminal Six, when he actually meant Gate Six (in the Terminal I was currently in). This led me to leave the departure area completely, and I discovered only after leaving it that there is no Terminal Six at JFK airport. There is a Terminal Five and a Terminal Seven, but no Six. When I discovered this, I sprinted across the airport back to my original terminal, had to go through customs again and made my flight literally with seconds to spare.
Several of my friends commented that I was very unlucky to get told this wrong information which almost led to me missing the flight. I actually, however, believe this was one of the luckiest things that has ever happened to me. It sucked that I had been told the wrong terminal, but how lucky was I that of all the airports this could have happened at, I was at the one airport that didn’t have a Terminal Six, despite having Terminal Five and Seven? I have no idea why JFK doesn’t have a Terminal Six, but if it did have one, I would have travelled all the way there before I discovered I had been given the wrong information, and would have missed my flight.
Understanding variance is a skill
My good friend and mental game coach Jared Tendler believes that recognising luck is a skill in itself, one which can be improved. Jared fundamentally believes that most mental game issues stem from players inaccurately distinguishing skill from variance.
Despite the fact that we understand variance better than 99% of the population, it is still hard for poker players to identify good luck. We are still hardwired to think that most of our success is down to skill, while most of our losses are due to variance.
Thankfully because of the maths in the game, and tracking software, we are able to answer many of these questions. If you run your Kings into Aces, or indeed if your Aces get cracked by Kings, you know that was for the most part bad variance. If you take a shot at a big tournament outside of your bankroll, and win it, I’d hope you would recognise that variance favoured you that time.
The hidden role of luck in poker
Those examples are just the tip of the iceberg where luck is concerned; there are so many other forms of luck we rarely consider at the tables. I have a long held belief that anyone who has played the game for a long time does so because they ran really well at the very beginning, long enough to develop an enthusiasm for poker before losses would put them off learning.
Most people know getting Aces is lucky, but even more important is getting a big hand when your opponent has a good enough hand to pay you off. If you are dealt Aces ten times in a tournament, it does you little benefit if most of the time you are just taking down the blinds and antes. Likewise, table draws in tournaments is all variance. Getting placed in dream seats where people will pay you off, and you simultaneously avoid tough grinders, is about as lucky as it gets.
One thing that gets mentioned rarely is the luck of having easy decisions. Humans have limited cognitive energy, and mentally taxing decisions deplete this energy, making future decisions harder. It is actually good fortune, therefore, when the decisions you face are simple. Hands that play themselves, playing a short stack and even being card dead may not be ideal, but they are precisely the things that conserve mental energy, for when a big decision will matter later on down the line, when others are tired.
Jared Tendler recommends you end every session by asking yourself how much of a role did skill and variance play in the outcome? They key to getting better at recognising good luck is simply making a point to look for it, which most players don't.
In what other non-obvious way does variance show itself in poker? Has poker changed the way you look at good and bad luck in life? Let us know your views in the comments.
