Will the second One Drop be better than the first?

The second $1 million buy-in One Drop event starts a week today, and we ask some of the big questions still to be answered about this event.

I was quite skeptical when it was first introduced, and then when I discovered it was going to happen every two years. However, with every week that passes, just like in 2012, I find myself getting more excited about the $1 million Big One for One Drop. 

I think the reason I like it so much, is that it always brings up some interesting talking points, including:

Will it sell all 56 seats?

Yes. I will be shocked if not.

Two years ago the organisers had to turn people away from this event – which is really surprising when you think about it. Now, at the time of writing, the 2012 capacity has nearly been matched with a week to go.

Most notably, this time around more pro poker players have already confirmed for this event who had not played last time. The businessmen can always afford to play, but the fact that more poker players are in suggests the poker economy is healthy at the moment.

Plus you have all the attention that the 2012 event attracted, as well as what has been a sterling two-year reign as One Drop champion by Antonio Esfandiari, who has really raised the profile of himself, and this event.

So yes, I expect a $20 million first prize this year. 

Who else is likely to buy in?

Notable players who are currently missing from the line up include Phil Hellmuth, who has already indicated that he is trying to find backers for this event.

Gus Hansen has previously indicated that he is looking forward to this event, but as yet has not confirmed his entry. Given his infamous online losses, it would be no surprise if he could no longer afford to play (But what a story it would be if he won).

Eugene Katchalov and ElkY both played last time, but have both indicated they won't play this time. 

Tom Dwan played last time, but depending on which rumours you believe he is either broke or sufficiently bankrolled for this event. Other players who played last time not currently on the list included Ben Lamb, Bob Bright, Cary Katz, Mike Sexton, Dan Shak, Giovanni "Malibu" Guarascio, Haralabos Voulgaris, Jens Kyllönen, Jonathan Duhamel, Roland De Wolfe, Nick Shulman and Tom Marchese. 

Other notable players who did not play last time, but on current form suggest to me they might, include Mike McDonald, Ryan Riess, Justin Bonomo and ever since he became an internet celebrity, maybe Dan Bilzerian. 

Will a pro win?

Yes.

Just look at the entrants list so far. I have bolded the names of all the players I would deem to be recreational players (It was hard for me to decide which category to put Jean-Robert Bellande in though). There will also be a few satellite winners in the final field, and they are most likely going to be pro players also.

Right now, the pro-recreational split is looking like it might be weighted towards the pro poker players, much more so than in 2012. 29 of the 48 (60%) of the 2012 field were pro players, and right now 29 of the 42 current confirmed (69%) players are pros.  

Considering I am expecting at least a handful of the players mentioned above to also enter again, I can only assume the pros will outweigh the recreationals this year by a bigger margin. 

If we did have such a big concentration of pro players, it makes me question whether this event is a particularly profitable investment for the many poker pros who will have bought pieces of fellow players.

2014 One Drop Entrant List
Fabian 'fabstinho' Quoss	Jean-Robert Bellande	Brian Rast
Tobias 'pokernoob' Reinkemeier	Phil Galfond	Andrew Robl
Scott Seiver	Greg Merson	Erik Seidel
Niklas 'ragen' Heinecker	Antonio Esfandiari	Doug Polk
Vanessa Selbst	Isaac Haxton	Sam Trickett
Christoph Vogelsang	Phil Ivey	Noah Schwartz
Vivek Rajkumar	Jason Mercier	Philipp 'philgruissem' Gruissem
Anthony Gregg	Igor 'lechuckpoker' Kurganov	Daniel Cates
Max Altergott	Bellagio Resort Satellite Seat	Daniel Negreanu
Daniel Colman	Guy Laliberté	Anonymous Businessman
Paul Newey	David Einhorn	Tom Hall
Anonymous Businessman	Anonymous Businessman	John Morgan
Anonymous Asian Businessman	Brandon Steven	Anonymous Businessman
Talal Shakerchi	Bobby Baldwin	Bill Perkins

Will a German win?

Very possibly. I won’t go over old theories though, you can read my thoughts on that here.

Is Ole Shemion playing?

This is a very interesting one. As yet he has not been announced as playing, yet I went on to the WSOP website and saw he had a profile page set up for their One Drop page. I took a screenshot of it, just in case it was removed later.

Shemion has always kept a very low profile in poker, which is admirable for a 21 year old who currently is dominating world poker. It would not surprise me at all if he has requested, just like some of the anonymous businessmen, not to be mentioned, and will just show up on the day.

I certainly hope so, because I have a potentially quite big bet on him to win the whole thing.

Who would be the best champion?

Because he was such a great ambassador for the last two years, a repeat victory for Antonio Esfandiari would not be the worst thing in the world. 

The sheer star power of Daniel Negreanu and Phil Ivey would attract a lot of attention too, though they are probably already about as famous as it gets for poker.

Jean-Robert Bellande would be hilarious if he won the Big One. Given he is such a character, that would be a great story (Though whether positive for the game, I am unsure). 
 
Several of the businessmen pledged their winnings to charity last year, and although one winning this year would be bad for the poker economy, it would be great for the image of the game and the charities themselves. 

A woman winning the biggest prize in poker history? Yes, I think the game would grow significantly if Vanessa Selbst were to win One Drop, and I am hard pushed to think of a more exciting winner for poker. 

I really can't wait for One Drop, are you excited about it too? Will it be a sell out? Who do you think will win? Who would be the best champion for poker? Let me know in the comments box. 

Barry Carter is the editor of PokerStrategy.com and the co-author of The Mental Game of Poker 1 & 2. He has been working in the poker industry for nine years and in 2013 won the APAT Award for Best Poker Media Provider. You can learn more about his work here.  Follow Barry Carter on Twitter l Follow Barry Carter on Google+