Kate & Tony: Check-raise on the flop a good idea?

Our hero Kate is sitting at a $1/$2 table and doesn't have any information on her opponents. Afterwards, she discusses the hand with Tony.

Kate: 86is one of the weakest hands I'm playing in this spot. For instance, I already would have folded 75 and 85.

The call by the player on the button looks like a middle pair or a hand with high playability to me: suited connectors, suited aces and high suited kings as well as queens. Maybe there are also some broadway hands in his range like KQ.

I wouldn't put him on tens or better or strong aces like AK and AQ because he would have raised those again pre-flop.

I really had trouble finding a strategy on the flop, though. I thought that he would interpret a check by me as a sign of weakness, but would still have to call with a lot of hands against my check-raise. So I also decided to check-raise quite big.

Of course, the turn looks pretty scary as now an eight would be enough for a straight. If I check now I expect him to check back a lot, and subsequently not to extract any more value from him with this line. Therefore, I simply continued betting, hoping that he would still put me on a bluff on the river and call again. Unfortunately, he decided to fold his hand instead.

Tony: Hey Kate! I'm happy that you're putting so much thought into this. Your reasoning is plausible as well. However, I'm not sure about the accuracy of your assessment of his play on the flop.

You're right when assuming that your check doesn't look like a particularly strong hand. However, there are also a lot of hands in his range that he doesn't necessarily want to bet on this flop. I assume he would only bet hands like K9, 78, 89 and his strong flush draws (e.g. A5) in 50% of cases. With these hands, he would have called a continuation bet. The amount of hands with which he would bluff is pretty small as well: AJ, KQ and maybe something like 55. That doesn't really make a big difference.

Against his very strong hands, your check-raise is of course better than a simple continuation bet. Still, you're losing more against mediocre strong hands that check. Here's a great video on the reasons why we're actually betting.

Overall, your check-raise is therefore a bit too tricky and you would have fared better with a simple continuation bet. I really like your play on turn and river, though, and the way you're getting all-in. I hope that wasn't a coincidence and that you've already thought about it when you were determining the size of your check-raise.

Kate: Nice! Thanks a lot for your input! Would you like to grab something to eat later on?

Tony: Sorry, I actually wanted to grind a bit more!

What's your opinion? Is Tony right in this case? Is a check-raise on the flop too tricky? And what do you think about a check on the river?

If you're interested in playing with strategy, feel free to take a look at our best beginner strategies!