Barry's Strategy Corner: Phase Satellites like the Irish Open

Bucket list events like the Irish Open are often Phase satellites, a format that most players get fundamentally wrong.

The Irish Open is always one of the most popular European events of the year and the satellite campaign reflects that. Several operators have already started their satellites for this event five months before it starts.

What all the qualifiers have in common, so far, is that they are Phase satellites. That means in Phase 1, you carry your stack over to Phase 2, and so on. This is in stark contrast to more usual satellites, where you start the following stage with a fresh stack.

In a regular satellite, it does not matter if you finish as chip leader or a micro stack, and as such there is an incentive to play tight. The biggest error I see in Phase satellites is that the players treat them like a regular satellite and play too tight. In reality the ending of a Phase is arbitray, there is little difference between the end of Phase 1 and the start of Phase 2 in terms if ICM pressure.

Bubble vs End of Phase 1

To demonstrate this, here is a toy game situation I have set up in Holdem Resources Calculator. Four players remain, three satellite tickets to be won. Everyone has 10BBs, and this is the shoving range and response for the Cutoff:

As you can see the calling ranges are very tight, because of the extreme ICM pressure. Ace King is a fold from every player, and TT is the weakest hand we call. As such, the CO can be very aggressive, shoving almost all their range.

To mock up the same scenario but the end of Phase 1 of a satellite you need to make some assumptions. Just like the Irish Open, the PartyPoker Tour have these satellites and I have won a lot of their packages. Phase 1 usually ends with four players, the final Phase usually starts with about 45 players and 10 get a package.

So to simulate this, I have updated HRC to show this table, in their multi table setting, and assume that 10 seats are on offer, with 42 other players all with 10bbs. So the total are 46 players (45 progress to Phase 2, one does not). So it very much is not a bubble, it is infact treat like the middle of a tournament that awards 10 seats.

These are the ranges:

As you can see, the calling ranges are much wider. Still tight, there is still ICM pressure, but wider. As a result, the shoving range gets tighter, because the Cutoff cannot expect as many folds.

The end of Phase 1 is not a bubble at all, and if you see players Nit it up in these spots you can punish them with aggression and build a big stack for the following Phase. You'll see this leak a lot for popular events like the Irish Open where amateur players are desperate to qualify.