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took me a 2nd try at the quiz to get my head round the 5:1 and 4:1 way of calculating probability, since I'm so used to just using %, or the *4 for 2 streets, and *2 for 1 street. Also didn't realize they meant just 1 more card to come, not seeing both turn and river.


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orion251984
Joined: 05.10.2017

hello everyone,
I just did the test about outs and pot odds and i don t know if I missunderstood something or if there is a mistake...
Q13
flop:A♠:K♠:5♥: turn 2♠:
pot 15$ and opponent bet 5$ on the turn
hero has Q♠:9♥:
so we have 9 outs /46 which is 19.5%
pot odds 3:1 which is 25%
so in that case the pot odds is higher then the odds shouldn t we call instead of folding ?

Q15 same problem


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Harrier88
Joined: 01.05.2012

Hi orion,

It's true that the pot odds need to be higher than your odds to make a profitable call, but only when they're expressed in a 'x:x' format. In your example, the flush draw would have 4:1 odds against you, so the 3:1 pot odds would be lower than that.

If you're expressing your odds as a percentage, then the pot odds (which aren't really commonly expressed in percentages anyway) would have to be lower than your actual odds. Think about it, imagine you have a 100% chance of winning the hand. If the pot odds needed to be higher than that, wouldn't it follow - absurdly - that you had to fold your hand in a spot like this?


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tetimiramar
Joined: 12.12.2008

Have just seen this material. Not precisely new to poker but not an expert either. This is very good!


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wobbletones
Joined: 10.03.2009

Hey man the reason the button is known as in position, is because post flop you play last so you are in position to see all action before you have to play. I hope this helps


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edited


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leechman
Joined: 10.11.2009

Hey there, I think I found a glitch in the Quiz for lesson "Odds & Outs".

I've taken the quiz a couple times now and every time my answer for questions #5 and #6 change (from 13 to 12, and 17 to 15, respectively).

Anyone else having this problem?


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indruns
Joined: 18.09.2019

For sure that is five times, no doubt for that.


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Hello
Anyone suggestion needed. NL Texas Holdem any kind speed.
Almost every tournament I can get in to the money. After that I got kicked quite fast no matter my chip stack or hand. Almost never hit the final table


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26263m2
Joined: 22.12.2019

I am new to poker. Why is the button the in position when the big blind is the last person to act?


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Harrier88
Joined: 01.05.2012

Originally posted by 26263m2
I am new to poker. Why is the button the in position when the big blind is the last person to act?

Hi 26263m2,

You are correct that the big blind is the last player to act, but only in the preflop round.

In all postflop betting rounds, the button will be the last player to act (therefore being "in position"), and the small blind will be the first person. Try observing it yourself when you're playing or watching your next game.


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LaMirek
Joined: 18.12.2019

This confuses me as well. But you have a point here +1.

Also think of the situation there someone else rather than you and the villain have put money in the pot preflop (majority of times). Then you will also will that money hence make a profit even if your turn or river "4:1 against 4:1" brakes even.


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Super Moderator
VorpalF2F
Joined: 02.09.2010

Hi LaMirek,
Welcome to PokerStrategy.com! :welcome:
If the odds are 4:1 against, that means that in 5 tries, you will win only once.

That doesn't sound good.
However, if there are $5.00 in the pot, and you need to put in only $1.00 to enter, then 4 times you will lose $1.00, and one time you will win $5.00
So you break even -- you spent $5.00 and won $5.00

There is a good article about this in the strategy section:
https://www.pokerstrategy.com/strategy/various-poker/basics-odds-and-outs/

No-Limit games also have implied odds:
https://www.pokerstrategy.com/strategy/various-poker/basics-implied-odds/

May the odds be ever in your favour...
VS


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LaMirek
Joined: 18.12.2019

Hi,

Thanks for the reply VorpalF2F.

I was actually replying to this post by StartlingGrope (dunno how this forum works entirely ;) ) :

I've just had a bit of a Eureka moment on question eight here after getting it wrong and I'm hoping that somebody will confirm whether or not I'm right. At first I was convinced that the question was written badly and that it was simply a break even situation but...

Regardless of whether you call or fold every time your pot odds match the odds offered then you break even on later streets. The difference is actually in the pre-flop action. If you're playing the hand, you necessarily have to put money into the middle before the flop. If you call at break even odds every time then you're going to split the pre-flop pot evenly with your opponent in the long run. If you fold though, you're just handing your pre-flop bet to your opponent every time.

I'm still not convinced that it can be deemed 'profitable' but calling 4/1 against 4/1 after the flop will definitely plug a huge leak if you're usually laying those hands down and waiting for the odds on the turn and river to be in your favour.

I can't believe that I've only just recognised the importance of this with such clarity. :f_biggrin:

About question 8 of the odds quiz:

QUESTION 8:
How often do you have to hit to be able to call profitably, when the pot odds are 4 to 1?

Every third time. (0 Points)
Every fourth time. (0 Points)
Every fifth time. (1 Points)
Every eighth time. (0 Points)

Your answer: Every fourth time. (0 Points)

The odds notation shows misses compared to hits. With odds of 4 to 1 there are 4 misses compared to one hit. So there are 5 cases and you must hit every fifth time.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

So my concern is that question 8 says "to call profitably" which I read as win >0 amount of money. The answer every fifth time equals to 4:1 odds.

So lets analyse this situation:

I have a Flush Draw on the flop (4:1 odds) 38 cards will miss my draw : 9 cards will hit

Hand 1 Draw miss
Pot 30$ Villan bets: 10$ Hero Calls: 10$ Hero looses 10$
Hand 2 Draw miss
Pot 30$ Villan bets: 10$ Hero Calls: 10$ Hero looses 10$
Hand 3 Draw miss
Pot 30$ Villan bets: 10$ Hero Calls: 10$ Hero looses 10$
Hand 4 Draw miss
Pot 30$ Villan bets: 10$ Hero Calls: 10$ Hero looses 10$
Hand 5 Draw hits
Pot 30$ Villan bets: 10$ Hero Calls: 10$ Hero wins 40$

So in the end it's -40$ against 40$ - that's what confuses me or do I count hero own money as a win money... :f_rolleyes:


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LaMirek
Joined: 18.12.2019

?(


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Super Moderator
VorpalF2F
Joined: 02.09.2010

Originally posted by LaMirek
So in the end it's -40$ against 40$ - that's what confuses me or do I count hero own money as a win money... :f_rolleyes:
At the moment you toss your $10 into the pot, it isn't yours any more.

So instead of "win" use "get back from pot"
In your 5 hands then it is
-10 x 5 because you played 5 hands
In the last hand you get $50 back from the pot, so you break even exactly

Cheers,
VS


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LaMirek
Joined: 18.12.2019

Hi Vorpal,

Thanks for nice explanation.

So do you agree that question 8 in odds quiz is badly written?

Mirek


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Super Moderator
VorpalF2F
Joined: 02.09.2010

Originally posted by LaMirek
Hi Vorpal,

Thanks for nice explanation.

So do you agree that question 8 in odds quiz is badly written?

Mirek

I never noticed that before.
Yes, winning every 5th time is exactly break-even by definition.

Well spotted.


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LaMirek
Joined: 18.12.2019

:f_drink:

Many thanks,

Mirek


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Easy to tell. Play out a sample hand with one dollar increments and see what works for you. There are a LOT of other considerations. Implied odds are a huge factor. If you don't have the pot odds but know your players and they are deep stacked it is often a good play to go for the longer odds based on your potential to win a much larger pot. There are a lot of pat answers and none of them are entirely right or wrong. A friend of mine won the WSOP main event 1979 with a gut shot against pocket AA. You can look it up. Hal Fowler. He was criticized by all the analysts and when I asked him why he said "the guy plays perfect. If the four (maybe 3 I don't remember) could come I could bust him and if it didn't I would just grind it out some more."


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