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Shot taking

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arthurbentley
Joined: 12.10.2010

I am pleased to say that I have won almost $300 at 2NL since Pokerstars introduced the four table cap. I have managed to achieve a winrate of 10bb/100 without the use of a HUD.

While I am pleased with this winrate I honestly think a top player like Lemon would easily make 20bb/100 over a large sample. Maybe more. The games have really loosened up since the four table cap.

I am actually rolled for 16NL but have no cash game experience above 2NL. So I intend to take a shot at 5NL to test the waters first. Then move up to 10NL when I have beat 5NL over a large sample.

What would be a good shot take at 5NL. Five or ten buy ins?


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13 replies
zetozinho
Joined: 18.06.2017

What's your roll? If you have at least 50 buy-ins for NL5 just go for it (that's what I consider the minimum).
For instance, if you have 250$ play it and drop down if you lose some, say at 150$.
Sometimes variance can be harsh and it's perfectly possible for a winning player to have losing stretches of 10 buy-ins or even more.
I don't think you should notice huge differences in the quality of the game until NL25.
Best of lucks.


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arthurbentley
Joined: 12.10.2010

Originally posted by zetozinho
What's your roll? If you have at least 50 buy-ins for NL5 just go for it (that's what I consider the minimum).
For instance, if you have 250$ play it and drop down if you lose some, say at 150$.
Sometimes variance can be harsh and it's perfectly possible for a winning player to have losing stretches of 10 buy-ins or even more.
I don't think you should notice huge differences in the quality of the game until NL25.
Best of lucks.

I am just short of 40 buy ins for 25NL. But sadly I have no experience of anything above 2NL on 'Stars.

I plan to take a shot at 5NL for 5 or 10 buy ins. If I get a run good going I plan to remain there. But if I fail to play my A game due to any psychological reasons, sub optimum play due to playing for more money etc, I intend to use a stop loss plan, regroup and analyse my play at 5NL.

I am an experienced cash game player albeit at 2NL, and have experienced many 20+ buy in downswings in my time.

The fact that I have managed to win $300 in the last 150k hands played, is playing on my mind that another huge downswing is imminent. The last one was -42 buy ins. 22 of which was down to tilt. So because of the mental game leaks which crept into my game, I plan to play it safe. Regroup, analyse and adjust to the new player pool.

I think the tilt issue was caused in part because of boredom, being over-rolled for 2NL, and not concerned about losing a few all-ins due to being well-padded.

I am pleased you say there is not much difference in the games up to 16NL. That is encouraging. I am determined this year to stop being a fun player and take the game more seriously. Hopefully, by the year's end, I will be bossing 16NL.

Thank you for your reply.


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venatici
Joined: 15.03.2010

Maybe not checking your results could help you somehow?
You are clearly over rolled so shouldn't go busto.
Also waiting gor downswing is not a good attitude, what if it never comes?

If you feel you could be playing scary money, maybe change your Poker Stars sertings are change $ value to bb? It's now possible within the Poker Stars client :)
This way you will see bb's not $ ,and can focus on decisions better :)


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arthurbentley
Joined: 12.10.2010

Originally posted by venatici
Maybe not checking your results could help you somehow?
You are clearly over rolled so shouldn't go busto.
Also waiting gor downswing is not a good attitude, what if it never comes?

If you feel you could be playing scary money, maybe change your Poker Stars sertings are change $ value to bb? It's now possible within the Poker Stars client :)
This way you will see bb's not $ ,and can focus on decisions better :)

Thank you for your comments and support.

Yes I have already started to prepare for my 5NL venture by playing in BBs at 2NL so I won't have to readjust to the shock of playing for more money. Changing over to BB did throw me off my game at first. For example, calling a 8bb raise with pocket fours thinking I had call 20 equity, forgetting it was 8 BB and not 8 cents. Thankfully, after a few days, I seem to have adjusted well.

I am looking forward to moving up in stakes shortly. I have already spotted many fish I have noted at 2NL playing at 5NL as well, so that bodes well.


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MrMontanaRC
Joined: 22.10.2016

Originally posted by arthurbentley

Originally posted by venatici
Maybe not checking your results could help you somehow?
You are clearly over rolled so shouldn't go busto.
Also waiting gor downswing is not a good attitude, what if it never comes?

If you feel you could be playing scary money, maybe change your Poker Stars sertings are change $ value to bb? It's now possible within the Poker Stars client :)
This way you will see bb's not $ ,and can focus on decisions better :)

Thank you for your comments and support.

Yes I have already started to prepare for my 5NL venture by playing in BBs at 2NL so I won't have to readjust to the shock of playing for more money. Changing over to BB did throw me off my game at first. For example, calling a 8bb raise with pocket fours thinking I had call 20 equity, forgetting it was 8 BB and not 8 cents. Thankfully, after a few days, I seem to have adjusted well.

I am looking forward to moving up in stakes shortly. I have already spotted many fish I have noted at 2NL playing at 5NL as well, so that bodes well.

I felt the same when I gave 5nl a shot a few weeks back, I changed it to bb from $ and it made a massive difference, I also played 2 2nl and 2 5nl tables together for the first few k hands


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mkBISCUIT
Joined: 19.01.2018

Author
Shot taking IMO isn’t about total buy ins. The goal to make money playing poker is to get to the highest stake you are able to win at consistently.

My suggestion is use a rapid rise format to move up in stakes..

I use a 12BI to move up, once I lose 2BI I drop back down. This has gotten me to NL200 pretty fast, within 135k hands and with that being said I had a 80k spot of break even play and also a -1100$ All in EV adjusted at NL50... pretty dirty run out of cards...

This is my suggestion but you need to keep in mind you need to play in your comfort level. If you move up and play to tight and have scared money you will just keep bouncing back and forth. That being said you also need the experience at higher levels to get comfortable..

Once again IMO


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Super Moderator
VorpalF2F
Joined: 02.09.2010

Originally posted by Mkablo
My suggestion is use a rapid rise format to move up in stakes..

Something like Tankroll bankroll management?

Cheers,
VS


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mkBISCUIT
Joined: 19.01.2018

not sure what bankroll BR means.. I am sorry. I just know I have been a staked player from NL30-NL200 and that method had worked.


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Super Moderator
VorpalF2F
Joined: 02.09.2010

Originally posted by Mkablo
not sure what bankroll BR means.. I am sorry. I just know I have been a staked player from NL30-NL200 and that method had worked.

I couldn't find anywhere "bankroll BR"
BR by itself is usually "Bankroll", and BRM == "bankroll management"

In my own case, I have to be very conservative (aka 🐔) since I'm on a pension, and my overall bankroll is shared with my family.
I could be more adventurous while I had a steady income from a job, but that hasn't been the case for nearly 6 years.

I have recently begun playing higher stakes in Stud and 5-Card Draw but that is fixed limit, and a whole different world.


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LeRoux90
Joined: 24.08.2015

I use a 12BI to move up, once I lose 2BI I drop back down

Don't do that that's highly not recommended lol Gonna ends broke on a high frequencie whatever your level...

Just simulated a 100kh sample EV 10bb/100 and the variance simulator says you gonna have a downswing of 10BI or more over 25% of the time!!! That's a strat for experimented players who already know they beat the limits they shot, or for degens. On a 100kh 5bb/100 sample, it's 56% you gonna have a +10BI downswing, so imagine if your theorical winrate is even lower

Edit: you need more than a 10BI downswing to get broke but really it doesnt make sense to do that for someone who have not beat limits over 2NL


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mkBISCUIT
Joined: 19.01.2018

Valpo auto correct
I meant I don’t know what tankroll is... sorry.

Leroux once again that was just my opinion.. it has worked for me and I didn’t go broke to get to 200nl it takes discipline, just like everything else in poker to make you a winning player.. but to each there own... you sound more experienced then myself.

Simulations once again in my opinion, don’t mean all that much, if you are trying to get to your highest playing potential/ limit. But to each there own what works for them..

GL bud!

Edit:
Primedope. With a 7bb/100 you need a 2178bb to have less then a 5% risk of ruin.. aka going broke. Maybe I am reading it wrong. That’s a 21 BI to have a less the 5% chance to go broke.. so with 10BI at a limit you win at, yes it is aggressive but, if you want to make money you need to get to your limit. IMO


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Super Moderator
VorpalF2F
Joined: 02.09.2010

Here's the link to where "Tankroll" is explained:
https://www.pokerstrategy.com/strategy/bss/tankroll-bankroll-management-150-1000/


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mkBISCUIT
Joined: 19.01.2018

Yes similar to that. Little different that you only take a 2 BI shot at new level, the drop back down when you lose those BI.


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