Trouble with overcards - Should I fire again on this turn unimproved?

I think you should put your opponent on a range first.
So what is his BU open range? 40% orso?
As he will probably call his entire range on the flop, you can see what your equity on the T is against his entire range (~48%).

So a bet on the T is correct (atleast EV+) if you assume he folds 25% of his range (and thus 25% of the time). You could also go for the c/c T en R if he becomes aggressive when you show weakness, however then you should be fairly certain about how he plays his hands, and quite certain he will not just value bet made hands and ch.beh worse hands/draws.

To see what to do when he raises you have to see what range he will call and what he will raise with. assume he will raise Flushes, TT+ TJ+, 4x and perhaps some bluffs/semi bluffs (determine percentage by stats/reads and game flow).
Assume 20% bluffs then you can calculate what you should do incase of a raise. Against that range you have ~20% eq. and since you get the odds you should call the T and R.

However this is a ~BE/ slight EV+ move that is variance sensitive, and if villain never c/r (semi)bluffs the you should fold here.

To find out what you should do in this sort of situations you can use equilab or simple mathematical formula's to determine all possible outcomes.

Hi!

Betting looks perfectly fine to me. On this flop they are calling extremly wide and there is no reason to think you are behind. This bet is basically for value and protection. This is basically a spot where Im very often going for 3street valuebetting. Riverbet obviously depends on the card. If river is a blank(like 7,6,2 or obviously A,Q) betting river in some scenarios is completly legit.

Sure by betting you open yourself up to potential bluffs but that is not neccessery the problem if you will balance your range correctly. Since I assume you will have some Qhigh,Jhigh hands in this spot they should be nobrainer bets as well. Hands like Khigh Im most prolly checking since I dont see much point in betting. With lower Ahighs its close and I would probably check the lowest(like A2,A5,A6,A7 and then bet higher ones.

If raised with such range...your bluffs should be folded but hand like AQ shouldnt be! Since if you fold this then you prolly fold around 30% which is rediculously too much.
Call and reevaluate on the river. On bad rivercards you have an easy fold. On A I would donk, on Q I would c/r. On blanks I would c/c

Originally posted by Dawnfall26

Call and reevaluate on the river. On bad rivercards you have an easy fold. On A I would donk, on Q I would c/r. On blanks I would c/c

I think I can see why we would donk on the A. If our opponent has only a pair (or two pair, I suppose it is because of the paired board), he won't bet these hands, fearing that we have an ace since we 3-bet preflop. But if we bet he'll call with these, hoping to catch us bluffing. So that makes sense.

The c/c on blanks or c/f on a fourth heart make sense, and seems pretty standard.

What I'm interested in is this c/r if a Q comes. I wouldn't have thought to make this move. I'm curious what the logic is behind that. I'm not arguing with it--if you say it's the right move, I'm sure it is, since you know what you're doing and I'm still learning. I'm just curious.

Thanks to both of you for your replies.

Originally posted by Dawnfall26
Call and reevaluate on the river. On bad rivercards you have an easy fold. On A I would donk, on Q I would c/r. On blanks I would c/c

Do you d/f a river A?

If you donk river with Ax I would close to never fold to a raise. Such play is very exploitable since you basically turning your hand face up in a sense.So if you fold, it doesnt require a very strong player to realise that you seem to be prone to folding too much on the river. Besides that,many player will go spazzy in this spot anyway which will make you catch quite a few bluffs....and also I would donk here with some bluffs as well...hand like, Jhigh/Qhigh hands seem perfect candidates...sure you wont get Tx to fold,but you may get some bluffs to fold or even hand like 55 can fold at this point since you obviously have a ton of Ax in your range

Question about why to c/r on Qriver.That obviously is on non heart queen. Well main reason is that I think there is value in such play and feels really weak to just c/c. Bus range doesnt have super many 4x in his range and even a lot of these would raise on the flop to get more action.Sure not all but a part definatelly. If he had a flush I also think he raises on the flop a decent amount of time so again his flush part gets a bit smaller....but then there is the main part...Tx...all of these make a lot of sense. Hands like AT,KT,JT,T9,T8 will almost never raise on the flop and will call such board when last to act pretty much always(maybe not T8 but still) So if you compare (AT,KT,JT,T9,T8 and some other hands like Qx with FD that can do a bluff on the turn vs QT,diminished flushes,A4,K4s I think we have a bit of value there....lets do some math...

Equity Win Tie
BU 34.43% 32.43% 2.01% ATs, A4s, KTs, QTs, JTs, T8s+, AhKh, AhQh, KhQh, AhJh, KhJh, QhJh, Ah9h, Kh9h, Qh9h, Jh9h, Ah8h, Kh8h, Qh8h, Jh8h, Ah7h, Kh7h, Qh7h, Jh7h, Th7h, Ah6h, Kh6h, Qh6h, Jh6h, Th6h, Ah5h, Kh5h, Qh5h, Jh5h, Th5h, ATo, A4o, KTo, QTo, JTo, T9o, QhJd, QhJs, QhJc
SB 65.57% 63.56% 2.01% AsQs

You can argue that such range is not realisitic...but even if you add a few more hands you will hardly change equity drasticly....65% is a decent edge...

Also why I would c/r and not donk... mostly because I think that Q is by far less scarry than river A and I would assume he will still valuebet Tx close to 100% while on Ariver I think he will not valuebet Tx