Do you know your multiway all-in equity?
Most of us know how strong hands are against one player, but what about in family pots? Dara O'Kearney shares some insight.
Most serious players have a reasonably good idea of preflop equities heads-up. We know AK versus a pair is roughly 50/50, JTs is just over 40% versus AK and a slight favourite against a small pair, and a pair is over 80% versus a smaller pair. We also know AK tends to be in good shape against tight ranges and in better but not much better shape against wide ranges.
Most of us, however, are very hazy on the equity of different hands multiway. This isn't that big a deal because multiway all-ins are rare in normal tournaments, at least until recently. In PKOs in particular, multiway all-ins before the action even gets to us are common as players chase bounties, so it's important to have at least a basic understanding of the equity of different types of hands multiway. So let's look at a few examples.
How good is AK multiway?
A student asked me recently "can you ever fold AK relatively shallow to a preflop all-in?" My answer was yes, in situations where ICM is extreme and/or multiway. In heads-up situations where ICM isn't a factor and we ignore blinds and antes for simplicity, we need 50% equity (win half the time) to make the call, and 58% is well clear of that.
AK has 58% even against a relatively tight (top 15%) range so it's a trivial call when ICM is not a big factor, and can be a call even when it is unless ICM is really big (8% is a pretty big cushion). But what about if two players move all in ahead of us and we put them both on a top 15% range? Now the breakeven equity is 33.3% (ignoring blinds and antes, and ICM): we need to win at least a third of the time. Well, AKo has just under 37% equity in this case, making it a call with no ICM, but the cushion is not as big as heads-up, so with ICM it tips to a fold much more readily.
What about fourway? Now we need to win at least a quarter of the time (25% equity), and AKo barely has 25% equity in this spot, so it becomes a fold in anything but a PKO. Fiveway, we need 20%, and AKo only has about 19%, making it a clear fold in anything but a PKO (where it may be a call depending on how big the bounties and ICM are).
What about weaker Aces? AQo has 53.5% against one top 15% hand (making it a call in all but ICM extreme situations), but less than 33% against two such hands (making it a clear fold except in a PKO where the bounties are a bigger factor than ICM). The more players we add the worse AQo gets as a call: it only has 22% versus three top 15% hands, and 16% against four.
As our kicker gets worse, our Ax hands shrivel up in value quickly. AJo only has 49% against one top 15% hands, making it a fold in anything but a PKO. Against two hands we only have 29%, against three a paltry 19%, and fourway not even 14%.
Speculative hands, good for a gamble?
Now let's look at some pairs. Everybody's least favourite hand Jacks has almost 65% against one top 15% hand (so it's significantly better as a call than AKo). It's 15% cushion over the 50% it needs heads-up is replicated threeway. Against two top 15% hands, jacks has over 48%. It continues to do well fourway, with 39% (a 14% cushion over the 25% breakeven point) and fiveway with 32% (12% cushion over 20% breakeven point).
A medium pair like 88 has 53.5% against one top 15% hand, making it a call except in ICM extreme spots, and a slam dunk call in a PKO if there's a bounty to be won. Threeway it maintains this 3% cushion over breakeven, fourway the cushion drops to 2%, and fiveway the cushion is just over 1%.
As our pairs get smaller, they struggle more multiway. 66 has over 48% against one top 15% hand, which may make it a call when we factor in blinds and antes, and definitely makes it a call if ICM isn't a major factor but there's a bounty to be one (the case early on in a PKO). Threeway, it's also about 1.5% shy of the breakeven equity (if we ignore blinds, antes, ICM and bounties) so can be a call in a PKO. It's also only 1% shy of breakeven fourway and fiveway, so the same comments apply.
Let's look at everyone's favourite hand, JTs. That only has 40% equity against one top 15% hand, so is never a call unless there's a huge bounty to be won in a PKO. Threeway though, it has almost 31%, only 2.5% short of breakeven, so often is a call in a PKO. The picture gets even better fourway, where it has over 24.5% making it a call if we can win one or more bounties, and fiveway it's actually got slightly more than the 20% breakeven equity point. So with JTs the situation is the exact opposite of AKo: the more already all-in, the merrier.
What about smaller suited connectors? You sometimes see players call all-ins with 76s in a bounty on the grounds that it's a good gambling hand. As it happens though, it's significantly worse heads-up than JTs with only 36.5%, is 6% short of breakeven threeway, 3% short fourway, and over 1% short fiveway. So while it also benefits from more players being all-in, bounties have to be a significant factor (and ICM insignificant) for it to become a call.
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