Can poker survive the Big Beautiful Bill?
The American gambling industry is facing the prospect of being taxed on winnings they didn't earn, how bad is this for poker?
Earlier this year all the talk was about whether Donald Trump's tariffs could seriously harm the WSOP. Most of us were wrong about that; in fact, the numbers have been up at the World Series so far this year.
It seems instead that Trump wanted to harm the 2026 WSOP, the 2027 WSOP, and every poker game in the United States from next year, with the last-minute gambling law added to his Big Beautiful Bill.
The new law would mean that losses at the table were only 90% deductible. So if you logged $100,000 in wins and $100,000 in losses, you would be taxed on $10,000 you never made. A ruling that would make poker and other forms of gambling unviable, or at least difficult and unappealing to most.
Looking for a workaround
This genuinely could be the end of poker in the USA, without some intervention. Phil Galfond, who has been an excellent person to follow on this topic, revealed stats that suggested that professional poker would still be possible for some. It was like adding an extra rake, essentially. But others would become losing players.
I thought the tax changes would end pro poker. For some, they will. Others survive.
I ran real data to help my students plan. Sharing here for anyone it might help. pic.twitter.com/aHf82ivC9S
— Phil Galfond (@PhilGalfond) July 5, 2025
All eyes are now on the finer details of US tax law to see if there are loopholes or workarounds that could make poker possible. Something similar to when Greek poker players would register for faraway online poker tournaments at the end of the month so their accounts would not show in profit.
I suspect a workaround will be found by sharp poker players. My concern is that the recreational players, who are the lifeblood of poker, will not have the wherewithal or the inclination to follow suit. When poker stops being easy to do, people will either find illegal ways to do it, or not bother in the first place.
Another existential threat
I live in the UK, which has always viewed gambling winnings as tax-exempt, so all of this is flabbergasting to me. I really do feel for my American friends, who not only have to pay hefty taxes on their winnings, but have constantly lived under the threat of the game being taken away by policymakers who do not understand it.
I have lived through the UIGEA, Black Friday and COVID, all of which were existential threats to part of the industry, mostly in America. However, what impacts America impacts all of us. You are foolish if you think this won't at the very least contribute to less money and marketing in the game globally.
Poker found a way to survive through all those things, and I think it will too with this. But once again, poker players have been dealt a harsh reminder to be prepared for change and to always have a Plan B in their back pocket.
Does this make you fear for the game? Let us know in the comments:
