News: November Nine Predictions: O'Dea to Reign Supreme

In this column, Sam Miranda discusses the potential outcome of the piece poker event of the year - the WSOP November Nine. Find out more here.

2011 WSOP final table starts on November 6

Plenty of poker still left

Eoghan O'Dea will be hoping to call upon the luck of the Irish

My tip for glory...Eoghan O'Dea

After a four month hiatus, the WSOP Main Event resumes on Sunday, with nine players clamouring for the $8.7 million jackpot.

The 2008 introduction of the November Nine was a bone of contention for many poker purists, who argued that the delay destroyed all player momentum and made for an unnecessary anti-climax.

Harrah's and ESPN defended the move, claiming that the delay would generate more public interest and marketing opportunities.

For better or for worse, this year's November Nine is upon us. Predicting the outcome of what is essentially a nine man SnG is never straightforward.

The impregnable Phil Ivey was many people's tip for glory in 2009, despite starting out in 7th place, but he was sent to the rail when his A-K was undone by Darvin Moon's A-Q.

Nevertheless, as short stack Sam Holden is at a pains to remind us, there is still plenty of room to manoeuvre: "I've still got 24 big blinds at the final table. There's some room there and I'm definitely not heading out to Vegas to just stick it in on the first hand".

Several factors will determine this year's outcome. Luck aside, raw poker playing ability, experience, aggression and table dynamics will play pivotal roles.

Youth will prevail

Will Ben Lamb be at it again?

Ben Lamb is the most distinguished player at the table. He's been in imperious form during 2011, securing his maiden WSOP bracelet, and racking up over $2 million in live tournament winnings. Lamb fought off a late flurry by Phil Hellmuth to scoop WSOP Player of the Year, and was rewarded with a spot in America's Caesers Cup team.

It would be very easy to plump for Ben Lamb, but I'm going to avoid being a sheep and jumping on the bookies bandwagon. Sitting in fifth with just over 20 million in chips, I don't believe he quite has the stack to be table captain, and that outright victory is beyond his reach.

The payout discrepancies are obviously signficant - ninth place is guaranteed $782k, but first place will receive a staggering $8.7 million. The first is a life changing sum of money, whereas the latter is a life defining amount.

Naturally, the players looking to edge up the payout list by adopting a more cautious, passive approach are the most exploitable. I believe 49-year-old Badih Bounahra, who by his own admission is a recreational player, falls into this category. As the table veteran, he may fall victim to the fearlessness of youth. Financial solvency is more important at 49, when family responsibilities become more apparent. Bounahra has already stated that his priority is to fund his youngest son's education.

Despite his online background, I also feel that chip leader Martin Staszko will err on the side of caution. The mantle of chip leader comes with intense pressure, and he'll want to avoid a spectacular meltdown at all costs. Staszko has only recently embarked on a professional career, so his primary objective will be to survive and guarantee himself a bumper bankroll for his new journey.

There is less pressure on the 20-something year olds to make a monster score. Online pros such as Pius Heinz and Phil Collins will be well schooled when it comes to things such as EV and the M-Factor, so you can expect them to play solid, aggressive poker.

26-year-old pro Matt Giannetti, who lies in third with 24.7 million in chips, showed his poise and ability to switch gears throughout the closing stages, as he picked himself up from being one of the short stacks in ten handed play.

Giannetti has warmed up for the November Nine with victory at the WPT Malta, and is adamant he won't be stifled by the prize pool jumps, telling ESPN, "I don't want to look back at the TV screen in a couple of months and say, 'My gut instinct was to do this, but I played it safe to move up in the prize pool.' You only get one chance in your lifetime to do this. It's every poker player's dream". Giannetti has a favourable position at the table - he has position on chip leader Martin Staszko, and Badih Bounahra on his left.

Will it be O'Dea's Day?

I believe that Eoghan O'Dea, Ben Lamb and Matt Giannetti possess the perfect blend of ability, aggression and tournament experience to be considered the top three contenders.

My outright pick is Eoghan O'Dea. The Irishman comes from a proud poker playing background, and sits in a commanding position with 33,925,000 in chips. O'Dea seemed to glide through the closing stages of the Main Event under the radar, chipping up without major confrontation. He has a composed demeanour, and already boasts three cashes at this year's series.

Final Predictions:
1. Eoghan O'Dea
2. Matt Giannetti
3. Ben Lamb
4. Phil Collins
5. Martin Staszko
6. Pius Heinz
7. Sam Holden
8. Badih Bounahra
9. Anton Makievskyi

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