The live poker industry just got competitive
Now that the WPT has increased their guarantee to $40 million, what will WSOP Paradise and PokerStars do to compete?
As I have written before, I wasn't a huge fan of the WSOP Paradise purposely clashing with the WPT World Championship, but I was excited at the competition it would yield in live poker.
In direct retaliation to GGPoker and the WSOP, the World Poker Tour announced their flagship event would now have a $40 million guarantee. Last year the guarantee was $15 million and it almost collected $30 million, so this is quite the step up.
GGPoker has announced a $15 million Main Event at WSOP Paradise, so the gulf between them now is significant in that respect. However, GGPoker has pledged 1,000 satellite winners will go to the Bahamas. Right now it looks like the WPT are risking a significant overlay in their Championship event, whereas GGPoker are risking a significant overlay in their satellites.
Will GGPoker increase their guarantee?
In both cases, this is tremendous news for poker. This is massive value we rarely see in live poker, we could easily see two massive overlays, if not we will at least see two of the biggest prize pools of the year at the same time.
The value does not stop there, however. Last year one of the reasons the WPT Championship was such a big success was how many players won their seats for free. Many tickets were awarded in social media-style promotions, similar to the way PSPC seats have been won in the past. This makes the event both great value for enthusiastic recreational players who couldn't afford the seat normally, as well as softer in general at the tables.
It seems the next step for GGPoker would be to either increase their own guarantee or at least adopt a 'Platinum Pass' style approach to awarding some of those 1,000 tickets. I would not put it past them if they did both. Of the three big live operators, it seems like GG is the one who cares most about this, and it is very similar strategically to how they overtook PokerStars online.
What will PokerStars do?
The really interesting question is what, if anything, will PokerStars do to compete? They have EPT Prague at the same time and last year that was a record breaker. They dominate the market for players who want to stay in Europe but are competing with GGPoker in terms of online satellite liquidity.
It feels like they are going to stay out of this particular measuring contest. Nobody is talking about PokerStars in this battle, it is all WPT vs GG/WSOP. PokerStars might be able to run an enjoyable EPT festival for their European regulars, get a big field anyway, and keep their costs down at the same time.
But will that actually be the case? EPT Barcelona just attracted their single biggest PokerStars Live field of all time, as well as their second biggest EPT Main Event. They just announced the return of the North American Poker Tour and they also have a brilliant new satellite system in Power Path. They might not be wanting to offer guarantees they can't meet, but they clearly have ambition in live poker.
My gut feeling is Stars will sit out of this battle. They are currently the short stack on a three-handed bubble while the two big stacks are going to war. The sensible thing is to sit it out and lock up a profit instead, then maybe announce an extra special PSPC for 2024.
I hope I am wrong. Love them or hate them, I think GGPoker have started one of the most exciting periods for live poker I have ever known. Right now the World Poker Tour has the advantage, but I really hope PokerStars throws a curveball to make this a three-horse race.
Will PokerStars announce something special to compete with the WSOP Paradise and WPT World Championship? Let us know in the comments:
