What is a Main Event final table stack worth?
Barry Carter puts his nerd hat on to give you the ICM values of everyone left in the World Series of Poker Main Event.
We now have the better part of three weeks to wait before the conclusion of the World Series of Poker Main Event Final Table.
That's obviously a time to rest and recuperate if you're one of the lucky nine players, but if you're a complete poker nerd like me, it's an opportunity to delve deep into what they are playing for.
The WSOP famously does not allow final table deals, but that does not mean we can't look into what the players, in theory, should deal for if they had an ICM final table chop.
Lucas Jumalon has more than double the chips of his nearest rival is currently in pole position to take down the $10 million first prize. However, a fair ICM deal, and in this context that means one where everyone is equally skilled, would only pay him a little more than $6 million.
Contrast this with the short stack Evagoras Evagoras, who has almost nine times fewer chips than Jumalon. However, a fair ICM deal for him would be more than $2 million, more than double his guaranteed payout. This is actually more than the sixth-place prize money.
This is ICM in a nutshell. The fewer chips you have, the more each one is worth. ICM punishes the big stacks in tournaments because, while they're most likely to win all the chips, they are unable to win all of the prizes because of the payout structure.
The most interesting participant is perhaps Jamie Shaevel, who in third place currently has an ICM value the closest to his projected final table finish.
| Rank | Player | Chip Count | Big Blinds | Prize if the player maintained their position | ICM Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lucas Jumalon | 194,000,000 | 129 | $10,000,000 | $6,186,584.34 |
| 2 | Rami Hammoud | 79,000,000 | 53 | $6,000,000 | $4,070,124.56 |
| 3 | Jamie Shaevel | 56,000,000 | 37 | $3,750,000 | $3,401,562.36 |
| 4 | Greg Mueller | 48,500,000 | 32 | $2,750,000 | $3,163,115.85 |
| 5 | Michael Gagliano | 46,500,000 | 31 | $2,250,000 | $3,113,323.72 |
| 6 | Mario Boos | 44,000,000 | 29 | $1,750,000 | $3,011,427.78 |
| 7 | Lauri Sääskilahti | 37,500,000 | 25 | $1,500,000 | $2,797,500.26 |
| 8 | Han Feng | 25,000,000 | 17 | $1,250,000 | $2,319,542.91 |
| 9 | Evagoras Evagorou | 22,500,000 | 15 | $1,000,000 | $2,186,818.20 |
Would you take a deal?
So, would you take a deal in this spot?
To the people who think that they would refuse a deal in Lucas Jumalon's spot, it's a very interesting exercise to look at what the projected finish distributions are. Again, this all assumes that everyone is equally skilled at the final table. This won't be the case, but I imagine in a tough, gruelling tournament like the WSOP Main Event, the skill edges will be narrow. The distributions are based entirely on the chip stacks of each player.
| Player | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | 7th | 8th | 9th |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Jumalon | 35.1% | 25.1% | 17.1% | 10.9% | 6.4% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Rami Hammoud | 14.4% | 15.7% | 15.7% | 14.8% | 13.1% | 10.8% | 8.1% | 5.1% | 2.2% |
| Jamie Shaevel | 10.1% | 11.5% | 12.6% | 13.2% | 13.3% | 12.8% | 11.6% | 9.4% | 5.5% |
| Greg Mueller | 8.7% | 10.1% | 11.3% | 12.2% | 12.9% | 13.1% | 12.7% | 11.3% | 7.7% |
| Michael Gagliano | 8.4% | 9.8% | 11.0% | 12.0% | 12.7% | 13.1% | 12.9% | 11.7% | 8.3% |
| Mario Boos | 7.9% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 11.5% | 12.4% | 13.1% | 13.3% | 12.6% | 9.5% |
| Lauri Sääskilahti | 6.8% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 10.5% | 11.6% | 12.8% | 13.9% | 14.5% | 12.7% |
| Han Feng | 4.6% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 10.9% | 13.3% | 17.5% | 24.5% |
| Evagoras Evagorou | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 10.1% | 12.7% | 17.4% | 29.5% |
While Jumalon wins this tournament for a full $10 million, 35% of the time, the remaining 65% of the time, they pocket a prize less than what the ICM deal is offering them.
In contrast, Evagoras Evagorou would be offered sixth-place prize money despite having a smaller stack. While he is most likely to be the first player out, 30.3% of the time, he will beat what is being offered to him in the ICM deal.
This is why most players would be crazy not to at least consider an ICM deal, or possibly, in the case of this event, selling some of their action at the final table. Having a chip lead is not a sure thing, and having a short stack is not a kiss of death. As we have seen time and time again, anything can happen at the final table.
