GTO Poker Theories - The Red Car Theory
We notice what we are primed to notice, and we ignore everything else, in life and at the poker table.
One of the real gifts poker has given me is that it has been a great jumping-off point to learn things from other disciplines like economics, AI, psychology, and Game Theory. So here is a series of articles where I bring some of the most interesting things I have learned from other subjects outside of poker which are applicable to this game we know and love.
The Red Car Theory is often used to explain how we can positively influence our own luck by shifting our awareness. The idea is simple: once you start thinking about red cars, you begin seeing them everywhere; not because there are suddenly more of them, but because your mind is now attuned to noticing them. This principle, rooted in selective attention, suggests that when we focus on certain ideas, goals, or desires, our brain filters the world in a way that brings more of those things into view.
Applied intentionally, this theory becomes a tool for attracting serendipity. People who believe in creating their own luck use it to heighten awareness of opportunities, helpful connections, and meaningful coincidences. By setting intentions; such as being open to collaboration, looking for creative inspiration, or staying alert to new directions; they prime themselves to notice things others might miss. What seems like luck or coincidence is often the result of this subconscious scanning for moments that align with their goals or mindset.
In this way, the Red Car Theory helps people engineer more “lucky” breaks in life. It encourages proactive engagement with the world: paying closer attention, asking better questions, and expecting good things to happen. This heightened awareness can lead to more timely conversations, chance encounters, or unexpected insights. Serendipity isn’t random; it’s more likely to occur when your mind is actively tuned to what you want to find.
Looking for bad beats
I think there is an argument to be made that you can use the Red Car Theory to improve luck at the tables. At least in the context of if you are on the lookout for soft games, you might be able to find them more easily.
However, I think the Red Car Theory more accurately explains the opposite in poker. It explains why we are wired to look for instances of bad luck and coolers, and ignore the good beats.
It is a very comforting thing to tell yourself you are unlucky as a player, it justifies when your results don't go your way. In that respect, when we are motivated to find bad beats, we will, and ignore everything else.
To use the Red Car Theory proactively, we almost want to start logging all the times we got incredibly lucky at the tables, so we notice it more in the future. That's a much better mindset to have as a poker player, I would suggest.
What theories from outside of poker have helped your game? Let us know in the comments.
