Exploiting regular based on his stats

His attempt to steal is low, yet his fold to steal is 66%
So to start with, I would steal more -- but this guy will adjust quite quickly.
Also, he needs to be 1 or two players to your left, otherwise you cannot steal from him.

Do you have Equilab?
There is the free version:
https://www.pokerstrategy.com/poker-software-tools/equilab-holdem/

and "Power Equilab" https://www.pokerstrategy.com/poker-software-tools/power-equilab/

I only have the free version, so I don't really know what the differences are.

You asked "Is that Fold to 3bet enough to start to 3bet bluff him more, when IP?"
To really answer that question, we need to know his stats by position.
The stats given cover all positions, but is he folding 71% evenly, or more in MP and CO and less UTG?

Also, what is your current 3Bet range?
If you are 3Betting very tight, then opening it up probably won't hurt much.

and again, bear in mind that he will adapt if he is that good.

OK, Equilab:
His PFR is only 11% -- this is rather tight:
77+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, ATo+, KQo

Included in this is the range is a 4.35% 4Bet range:
(99+, AKo+, AJs+)

This leaves :
88-77, ATs-A9s, KTs+, QTs+, AQo-ATo, KQo

as hands he might fold to 4-Bet

This all very rough and just done without a lot of thought -- just using the numbers. It doesn't take into account his different ranges by position, and doesn't include any provision for a bluff range -- but he surely has one.

Get one of the Equilabs -- the Power one has a 14 day free trial -- and play around a while.
Also, posting specific hands is quite often helpful:
https://forums.pokerstrategy.com/forum/board.php?boardid=1674

Cheers,
VS

PFR: 10,64
I would think he is nitty and often plays just good value hands. No reason to cold call him that much especially if you end up playing OOP.

3Bet PF: 3,85; 4Bet PF: 4,35; Fold to PF 3Bet: 71,01; Fold to PF 4Bet: 35,12;
Overall 3bet seems to be on the low side, so I would respect his 3bets more. Fold to 3bet is quite big so I would definitely 3bet him a bit light and make the 3betting range polarized instead of linear. If he 3bets you, don't 4bet bluff. But as vorpal said, better to check positional stats.

Fold to Steal: 66,91
Steal a lot. With smaller sizing.

Fold to F CBet: 53,30; Fold to T CBet: 24,90; Fold to R CBet: 16,93;
He folds too much vs flop cbets. So I would cbet a lot. But because he folds too much there, when he calls we can assume he is quite strong. As you can see his fold vs cbet decreases on every street. So I would probably never 3 barrel bluff this guy. If he calls flop and turn he has something he likes.

having a feeling that these are your stats?
besides what they said, i wonder if that 26 vpip/11 pfr is a typo (should be 16 vpip) or it's actually 26 vpip. that's just an insane number for full ring games, specially given the low pfr going with it. fixing that vpip should help with the folding to cbets issue

Originally posted by Tomaloc
having a feeling that these are your stats?

No, they are not. I'm pretty much a "nit" (13/10).

Originally posted by Tomaloc
besides what they said, i wonder if that 26 vpip/11 pfr is a typo (should be 16 vpip) or it's actually 26 vpip. that's just an insane number for full ring games, specially given the low pfr going with it. fixing that vpip should help with the folding to cbets issue

No typo at all. It's actually 26. There are a lot of villains with stats similar to those: a tagish PFR and a fishish VPIP.
It's kind of weird.

Hi, Vorpal. Thanks for the answers.

Originally posted by VorpalF2F
You asked "Is that Fold to 3bet enough to start to 3bet bluff him more, when IP?"
To really answer that question, we need to know his stats by position.
The stats given cover all positions, but is he folding 71% evenly, or more in MP and CO and less UTG?

Good question. But I presume I won't have a good sample size for the positional stats...

Originally posted by VorpalF2F
Also, what is your current 3Bet range?
If you are 3Betting very tight, then opening it up probably won't hurt much.

Pretty tight/nitty. Probably, something around 3 or 4.

Thanks for your answers, la55i!

Originally posted by la55i

Fold to Steal: 66,91
Steal a lot. With smaller sizing.

Which size do you recommend?
Everytime I start to decrease my bet sizes, I have the impression that I'm giving better odds for the blinds to call and we'd begin to play those marginal-rake-eat-all-your-profit spots.

Originally posted by la55i

Fold to F CBet: 53,30; Fold to T CBet: 24,90; Fold to R CBet: 16,93;
He folds too much vs flop cbets. So I would cbet a lot. But because he folds too much there, when he calls we can assume he is quite strong. As you can see his fold vs cbet decreases on every street. So I would probably never 3 barrel bluff this guy. If he calls flop and turn he has something he likes.

Do you think that folding 50% is too much?
When I put some ranges on Equilab and run some flop scenarios, It's hard to find enough spots to cbet more than 60%.

For example, as the agressor, with AQ+,99+ pre and a rainbow flop A59, the best spots to cbet are going to be top pairs, sets and some nutish bd fd and str8 draw. Something around 50 or 60% of the cases.

The other cases are going to result in middle and bottom pairs and weak bd draws and I'd use some of those do check/call or check behind OTF, for example.

Which other cases would you add for cbetting? Pure bluffs?

Which size do you recommend?
Everytime I start to decrease my bet sizes, I have the impression that I'm giving better odds for the blinds to call and we'd begin to play those marginal-rake-eat-all-your-profit spots.

Most of the guys don't change their defending ranges based on the steal size. I bet that with 2.5bb open you get almost as much folds than with 3x open. And actually with 2bb open they sill fold awfully too much. LemOn just talked about this in his latest coaching I believe. He did some population analysis.
Also, on most rooms you don't pay rake on preflop.

And about the cbetting, yea 50% fold to cbet is too high. It should be closer to 40%. If you bet half pot, villain needs to directly fold just 33% of the time for you to make autoprofit. If he folds 50% you could and probably should be cbetting very often.
You are right that in some cases it is difficult to find cbetting hands that are really good but then we could get a bit creative For example against this guy you can test if he folds on dry boards even more. It looks like he plays only stronger hands and gives up more easily without a hit, and on a dry board he might not have many hits. So you could start firing something like 1/3pot cbets and see how they work, and do that with some crappy hands.

26 vpip is totally unsustainable for fullring. either they will have to overfold or overcall, and despite the guy's relatively high fold to cbet he seems to be a bit of a station (his total range is much weaker than average, so his cbet calls are not that strong to justify folding less than 25% later).

with your 13/10 you should crush his range, and thus even top pair like AJ becomes worth considering a 3barrel for value in most positions.

Thanks. I'll give it a try.

Originally posted by la55i
Also, on most rooms you don't pay rake on preflop.

Yeah. I meant give him enough odds to call, go to pos, pay the rake, and he check/fold to a cbet or we play a very marginal hand.

Originally posted by Tomaloc
with your 13/10 you should crush his range, and thus even top pair like AJ becomes worth considering a 3barrel for value in most positions.

Thanks, Tomaloc!

Originally posted by pguest
Thanks. I'll give it a try.

Originally posted by la55i
Also, on most rooms you don't pay rake on preflop.

Yeah. I meant give him enough odds to call, go to pos, pay the rake, and he check/fold to a cbet or we play a very marginal hand.

Yea but still the thing is that if they fold close to 60% vs 3bb open, they will fold close to 50% vs 2bb open even though they should fold closer to 20% or 30%. They simply do not defend enough vs smaller sizings. If you are on SB for example, you are risking 1.5bb to win 1.5bb. Villain needs to fold 50% of the time for you to make autoprofit and to be able to open any 2 cards profitably. Then you are still probably not opening just any 2. And even with any 2 cards you would have more equity than 0%.

And also remember that even if the spot is marginal and you end up breaking even with the total hand, it is still better than folding. Every time you fold a hand on SB you will lose 0.5bb. So as long as your EV from the whole hand is higher than -0.5bb you should play it.

Originally posted by la55i
And also remember that even if the spot is marginal and you end up breaking even with the total hand, it is still better than folding. Every time you fold a hand on SB you will lose 0.5bb. So as long as your EV from the whole hand is higher than -0.5bb you should play it.

Makes sense.

Thoughts on this old article about bet/raise sizes? https://www.pokerstrategy.com/strategy/weekly-no-limit/bet-raise-sizes-preflop/

I'm just trying to figure out where the hell is the gap between his Vpip and PFR coming from when he folds so much to steal

Does he call loads Ip pre?

Originally posted by LemOn36
I'm just trying to figure out where the hell is the gap between his Vpip and PFR coming from when he folds so much to steal

Does he call loads Ip pre?

I would need to check this, but even at NL5, these type of players love to cold call for set value. And not only from lp. Some cold call from mp1, mp2.
One guy cold call me from utg3 with 33.

Some cold call with AK from middle pos or at the blinds.

And some open limp/call with pp, big aces (AQ, AJ), suited aces and suited brodaways.

For example, there is a guy with vpip of 11 and pfr of 5. His limp is pratically a nit/tag OR :-) When he limp/calls, I expect something like AJo, ATs, 99, KQ...

Originally posted by pguest
Thoughts on this old article about bet/raise sizes? https://www.pokerstrategy.com/strategy/weekly-no-limit/bet-raise-sizes-preflop//blockquote >

In 6max I would keep the opening size from UTG at 3bb but I gues sin FR you can open 3.5bb from early. CO and BTN can indeed be opened 2.5bb, BTN even smaller. But I see no reason to open SB with 3.5bb. Yes we are out of position again but people still fold horribly too much and you can get the same fold equity by raising 2.5bb but without risking that 1 extra BB.
When iso-raising, I would use 3x+1bb per limper and then maybe again +1 if I'm OOP and maybe even more if I feel like it. But my usual iso-raise sizings are 4 or 5bb.
The squeeze size mentioned looks ok. 4x + some big blinds. I usually raise pot which is usually the same sizing.
I don't know if the article mentioned a 4bet sizing but I would often use 2.2x - 2.5x the 3bet.

It was a decent article. Only thing that caught my eye was the SB open size.

We need to take the culture of the site into account too.

A former poker room PKR was known for "no fold'em hold'em"

ISO raises didn't ISO -- Even UTG (FR & 6-Max) raises got a chorus of calls.

It might be necessary to bet even larger to get to a heads up or 3-way flop.

Nits on your left are a license to print money.

Peace,
VS

Originally posted by la55i

Originally posted by pguest
Thoughts on this old article about bet/raise sizes? https://www.pokerstrategy.com/strategy/weekly-no-limit/bet-raise-sizes-preflop/ [/quote/]
But I see no reason to open SB with 3.5bb. Yes we are out of position again but people still fold horribly too much and you can get the same fold equity by raising 2.5bb but without risking that 1 extra BB.

It was a decent article. Only thing that caught my eye was the SB open size.

But then, I don't know if it was mentioned in that article or not, but I am cbetting 100% of the time with 1/3 of the pot and if you make a 3,5bb raise preflop and the population leak is that they overfold vs cbet, then we get +1bb like extra value.
Agree, people overfold on the blinds too much almost similar number, but what I know in some cases, especially at zoom, they are scared. Because is so rare to see someone who is using 3,5bb sizing. And then from my experience just call some good hands like AJs,AQs,KQs,KJs and folding some marginal hands which would call vs 2,5bb sizing.
But again I would make it smaller preflop against someone who has a standard 3bet preflop BbvsSb and bigger against someone who tends to overfold on cbets and his 3bet BbvsSb isn't so huge.
As default I don't think that between 2,5bb and 3,5bb steal from SB is a big deal. I am actually using the 3,5bb steal from SB (it's also becuase of odds, with bigger sizing you don't get such a good odds to call) and it works well.

Hmm I would still say 3.5bb from SB is a bad idea. People do fold a bit too much vs steals and also vs cbets but the population doesn't fold horribly too much. And the bigger you bet pre, the more you need to get postflop to make the situation even better than if everyone would just fold immediately. I also would say that just blindly cbetting 1/3 of the pot 100% of the time is a bad idea.

For sure it could be the case that you get some sort of auto-profit. But I have to remind that auto-profit doesn't always mean max profit.

Well, but with smaller sizing like 2,5bb you are giving 30% pot odds and that gives your opponent really good price to call with wide range. Okay, then we can make easily autoprofit postflop with cbet. But from my stat cbet F success (34,36) people are overfolding more than 9% of the time (on 1/3cbet), so basically the more money I put into the pot preflop the bigger will be the profit postflop.
Well blindly cbetting 1/3 SBvsBB.. hmm against some fishes on some special runouts, but let's say at least 90% of the time 1/3 cbetting is imo autoprofit and also close to maxprofit. The fact, that more complicated would be your strategy, the more mistakes you can do. I think especially at micros this is the situation like we have an autoprofit line which is clear and simple (1/3cbet).
On the other side you can start with overthinking and check some flops, potbets, overbets, halfpot bets.. and if you are a pro in this side, you can actually make little bit more profit. But if you aren't pro you can lost so much value as you can see on some NL2 players who are more creative.
I would like to focus more on spots in which I am not sure if I am making a profit or not. Because in singleray spots SbvsBB I am pretty sure that I am making a nice profit and don't say that it can't be bigger, but it requires a lot work on it. At NL10 I don't think that it should be the main thing on which I should focus on.