News: Kate: "I pulled off a dark tunnel bluff!"

In today's hand, Kate decided to bluff on each street. Find out if her opponent fell for it, and learn what Jürgen thinks about her bold move.

Kate: Hey Jürgen!

Phew, that was a tough hand and I'm really keen on your feedback. I decided to actively defend my big blind pre-flop with a 3-bet. I'm doing that in roughly 12% of cases against such a small raise from the button.

I slightly adjust this strategy on a weekly basis—and at the moment, I'm defending my big blind with the following range:

I'm calling with blue hands, grey hands are folded, while red and yellow hands are played actively by 3-betting.

By adjusting the red and yellow hands on a weekly basis, my game shouldn't be too easy to read for my opponents.

Maybe I should also add that a lot of my opponents at higher stakes don't seem aware that a fold button actually exists. In such a case, I'm always resorting to this strategy:

I'm calling with yellow hands and 3-betting any red hand. In practice, I really enjoy these adjustable strategies in the big blind.

On one hand, you can really run down a lot of opponents with such a strong range in a 3-bet pot. On the other, you might manage to confuse more attentive opponents with it as well.

Which 12% range includes hands like 54s and QTs, after all?! Once you see how helpless some of your opponents start to play in such a 3-bet spot, you really feel like a true poker genius.

For the hand in question I assessed the situation as follows: It doesn't make much sense to play a "one and done" strategy with my bluffs, meaning bluffing on the flop and folding on the turn.

That's because you actually can't expect a lot of folds on the flop. My opponent has so many aces and kings in his hand. "HeinzKetchup's" range probably looks like this (see right):

The small numbers below the hands represent his equity against my range and define the colour of the cell.

Of course, at first sight you'd have to admit that there are a lot of green hands and bluffing against those doesn't seem reasonable as you'll get a good amount of calls. However, I thought ahead a bit and found out something fascinating:

Most of his hands won't really bow down to one or two bets. But, when I bet three times, even those hands will become uncomfortable for my opponent, and hands like A5 probably have to be folded. So, I decided to put the pedal to the metal with one of my worst hands and bluffed all the way. What do you think, Jürgen?

Jürgen

Jürgen: Hey Kate!

You've really analysed that spot well and I'm happy to see that you're making progress. Still, I found a small flaw in your analysis.

You've bet half the pot on the flop. Usually, that's the way to go in a 3-bet pot. However, in this particular case, you should bet bigger than that. Think about how the EV of your bluffs are calculated: With a river bluff, you're targeting the money your opponent puts in the middle on flop and turn. Therefore, you should bet big on these streets.

Betting bigger would be better for your strong hands as well since you're assuming that your opponent's hands will only call on flop and turn. This means your last value bet with a strong hand would rarely get called, leaving you only with the money from flop and turn.

Your bet size would be a good choice if your opponent couldn't call with a lot of hands on the flop. Then such a small bet would be an excellent price for your bluffs. But I don't want to make this play look worse than it actually was. Well done, Kate!

Kate: Oh, that's so nice to hear! It's the first time I was really able to combine theory and practice correctly.

By the way, I'm conducting a small philosophy experiment over the weekend. I'm going to attach a camera to my cat for three hours and then watch the whole recording afterwards on my TV. I've heard that such a change of perspective can be really inspiring.

I'd love it if you would join me! It would be twice as much fun...

Jürgen: Of course, there's football on over the weekend, but that really sounds like an interesting idea. I'm in!

Now it's your turn: Do you agree with Kate and Jürgen and think this was a good play? Or do you have doubts about their analysis?

Previous episodes

If you're interested in playing with a game plan, feel free to take a look at our best beginner strategies!