Kate & Tony: Is her huge bluff an overkill?
Our two protagonists are back to discuss a risky river bluff at a $0.50/$1 table.
Kate: Hey Tony, what do you think about my bluff? I'm assuming that he can't have the ace and that KQ is also unlikely due to the small bet size. I'm really only afraid of JJ and TT, though it would be pretty unlucky to run into those hands.
He doesn't know me and thus far I've left a solid impression at the table, not yet showing any bluffs and not attacking pots with a high frequency.
If he had an ace, I would expect a bet on the turn at the latest. If he had decided to check twice, I would then expect him to bet bigger on the river.
Tony: Hey Kate! The idea is good but your opponent needs to fold in 80% of cases to make your bluff profitable. I would be really surprised if that happened here.
A lot of bluffs can be excluded because of his play on flop and turn, further strengthening his range on the river. Also, I wouldn't generally assume in this spot that an opponent is skilled enough to always bet an ace or KQ big on the river.
Of course, the hands calling his bet will stay the same, regardless of whether he's betting $2.50 or $4. Still, not a lot of opponents understand that and simply bet small because they're afraid that you'd be folding otherwise.
Kate: I have to say I really appreciate your help! Would you like to play some Mario Kart later on?
Tony: Sorry, I'm planning to write down at least three pages with notes on my opponents. In the meantime though, you could try to calculate the profitability of your river bluff. The strategy articles on Equity Introduction and Final Calls offer relevant content. Simply play around with some ranges and try to figure out at which point your bluff becomes profitable.
What do you think? Did Kate go over the top with her bluff on the river? Wouldn't she have 100% fold equity against you if you bet $2.50 on the river against an unknown opponent in a spot like this?
If you're interested in playing with strategy, feel free to take a look at our best beginner strategies!
The complete series
- Kate & Tony: "Check-raise on the flop a good idea?"
- Kate & Tony: "Is this huge bluff overkill?"
- Kate & Tony: "Hero call with K2o?"
- Kate & Walter: "Feeling lost in a 3-bet pot"
- Kate & Walter: "I've called his check-raise with nothing"
- Kate & Walter: "I could have cried after his 4-bet"
- Kate & Jürgen: "I accidentally his whole stack"
- Kate & Jürgen: "I pulled off a dark tunnel bluff!"
- Kate & Jürgen: "I went all-in on the river, but was that a good move?"
- Kate & Le Douchi: "A huge bluff was my only chance"
- Kate & Le Douchi: "When is a read good enough?"
