News: Kate: "I went all-in on the river, but was that a good move?"

Our heroine goes all-in on the river, but doesn't expect to be ahead very often. Still, it's not supposed to be a bluff. What is Jürgen going to say to that logic?

Kate: Hey Jürgen!

This hand confused me a bit while playing. Due to our last discussion, I've decided to bet bigger on the flop and turn. I noticed something weird on the river, though: I would run better with a bet instead of a check although I'd only have 40% equity if he calls.

If I check, I would have to call an all-in since he plays well enough to turn weak made hands like KJo into bluffs and I would just about reach the necessary 30% equity. I'm confused! Don't you need 50% for a value bet?!

Jürgen: Hey Kate!

Again, you did everything right. It's really a perfect hand! The 50% rule doesn't apply when you're out of position on the river. To make a decision, you simply compare the available options, picking the one that's most profitable. That's it!

In our particular case, it roughly looks like this:

You will always pay off red hands. If you check, they'll bet. If you bet, they'll call. The yellow hands are the salt in the soup in this spot. They will call a bet if you decide to fire one but will check if given the opportunity.

Jürgen

In that case, you'd lose $129 compared to a check. On the other hand, you will get some money from turquoise hands. Your opponent has to bluff with some of these hands in order to make sure he's getting paid off with red hands.

However, you will win less from the turquoise hands than you'll lose against the yellow ones. That's pretty obvious when you think about how your equity on the river is calculated. If you bet, your equity is #Yellow/(#Yellow+#Red). If you check, your equity against a bet is #Bluffs/(#Bluffs+#Red), with #Bluffs being a subset of turquoise hands.

I think it's important to mention that very tight players, so-called nits, tend to ruin their red hands' value in such a spot. They don't understand that they also have to bluff made hands on the river, leading to them only betting red hands.

In that case, you'd fare a bit better with a check/fold compared to a bet. After all, your opponent has more red than yellow hands in his range.

Kate: Once again, thanks a lot Jürgen! Would you like to do something together again this weekend?

I never had a tree house as a kid and would like to build one at least once in my life. I imagine a cosy place where you can read in fresh air and think about life during a sunset.

Jürgen: I'm not sure about this one. I don't really want to drive nails into trees. That's not for me!

What do you think about the hand? Was the bet on the river a good choice? Do you expect your opponents to call with any yellow hand?

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