Four Streets, Four Problems

In the next three days we will analyse one specific hand on every single street. We're very interested in your opinion and how you would have played the hand.

An unknown opponent in middle position raises to three big blinds. All other opponents fold and it's your turn with Q-Ts. In poker, there are a lot of hands that look bad and you need to be cautious accordingly. On the other hand there are some hands that look good but can cause a lot of trouble. This leads us to today's question:

Question of the day: Should we call with QTs in this spot?

If equity was the only aspect of our decision, this would be an easy call: you need around 30% equity to call and our hand wins about 57% of the time against a random hand. But beware: please continue reading before you decide to call, thinking you made a fantastic play. There are some other aspects to consider.

In case you hit one of your outs, you might experience a conflict of interest on the flop: you want to call when your opponent bluffs enough, and you want to fold when your opponent's range is strong. Your opponent would like you to behave exactly the opposite: he wants you to call when you're behind and to fold when you're ahead. How do you think you're performing in this situation?

How often will you be able to bluff your opponent in case you didn't hit? Will a backdoor flush draw on a board like A-5-3 be enough for a profitable float? After all, you still have 28% equity against your opponent's range. Always folding the flop because you didn't hit would be negative EV. Should you, on the other hand, know exactly in which situations you can bluff your opponent, your EV will go through the roof.

Let's assume that you helped an old lady cross the street, earning some precious karma points. Depending on the size of the street and the degree of help needed, you hit something between two pair and a royal flush on the flop. How do much do you think you will win from your opponent?

If you are unsure what hands to call, you should maybe have a look how to construct a gameplan.

Now it is on you to decide: Is it a close call? Or a close fold? Do you want to take the risk and 3-bet? Or do you tend to minimize the table and deny that the situation ever happened? Tell us what you think in the comments section!