GTO Poker Theories - Epistemic Humility

Assume you are wrong, try to be less wrong. That's the advice from Elon Musk and it applies perfectly to poker.

One of the real gifts poker has given me is that it has been a great jumping off point to learn things from other disciplines like economics, AI, psychology and Game Theory. So here is a series of articles where I bring some of the most interesting things I have learned from other subjects outside of poker which are applicable in this game we know and love.

Epistemic Humility is an intellectual virtue based on the understanding that knowledge is always provisional, flawed and incomplete. It acknowledges that we are all ignorant when pursuing intellectual pursuits and, therefore, we are better off trying to reduce our ignorance rather than assume we are on the right path. 

The internet's current main character Elon Musk summed this up nicely by saying:

You should take the approach that you, the entrepreneur, are wrong. Your goal is to be less wrong.

To use an obvious example, the best minds in the world once thought the planet was flat and than you could cure most ailments with leaches. Without Epistemic Humility we would probably still believe this and scientific discovery would have come to a halt. 

Try to be less wrong

The poker community, at its best, is a great example of Epistemic Humility. A game that was once mostly about tells and hunches got an overhaul in the early 2000s when the online players changed the way the game was played. They were more aggressive and mathematically literate, having the benefit of shared information resources and databases of thousands of hands. In recent years a shift in the zeitgeist happened again with the advent of solver technology. 

Old school pros and old school online players fell by the wayside, but those who remained curious and humble continued to thrive. I always think of somebody like Erik Seidel in this regard, who has remained on top of the game through all of these changes, perhaps because he is so humble about his knowledge of the game. 

You see this in poker study itself too. Many players find the best way to learn is database reviews from coaches or 'leakfinder' type study. Rather than trying to learn new concepts, they try to identify their biggest errors so that they can reduce them. 

This tracks with the best advice mental game coach Jared Tendler ever gave me, which was the best thing to study is C-Game leaks, your biggest mistakes. They are likely impacting your winrate the most and you progress much more linearly, as your B-Came mistakes become your new C-Game mistakes, and so on. 

If nothing else then the variance in poker leads us all to think we are geniuses from time to time. We probably all need Epistemic Humility to avoid the tremendous disappointment that comes when our fortunes change. 

What theories from outside of poker have helped your game? Let us know in the comments.

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