Overcards in 3-Bet Pots (1) - Your Equity

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An aggressive, No Limit player who gets down to business has a lot of 3-bets in his repertoire. You will probably be familiar with the numerous advantages of 3-bets, however, there are two sides to a coin. In many cases, a 3-bet won't generate the required fold equity and you'll get to the flop in a 3-betted pot without a strong hand.

An important example for this kind of spot are overcards, on one hand you should deal with them carefully, on the other, you shouldn't fold them too often.

Your equity

The first part of this series will only deal with your equity, which depends on your hand, your opponent and the board.

What is the definition of overcards?

The basic definition is clear: two high cards in the hand, which are higher than the highest flop card. However, there are of course big differences.

If, for example, you 3-bet T9s as a semi-bluff, you will also have two overcards on a 345 flop. But what are they worth? Generally not an awful lot.

However, if you're holding AK on a 447 flop, things look decidedly different. You can use a semi-bluff, as you can generally give yourself six outs on the overcards and you're also holding the best hand in a lot of cases.

Why not just fold?

The simplest scenario of course is to get rid of your potentially marginal hand with a check/fold:

EXAMPLE 1:

PartyPoker $25 NL Hold'em (6-handed)

Stacks & Stats
UTG ($25)
MP ($25)
CO ($25)
BU ($25) (21 / 15 / 2.5 / 59 / 10) (VPIP / PFR / AF / ft3-bet / 4-bet)
Hero ($25)
BB ($25)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A , K
3 folds, BU raises $1.00, Hero raises to $3.50, 1 fold, BU calls $3.50

Flop: ($7.25) 4, 4, 7 (2 players)
Hero checks, BU bets $4.00, Hero folds

The question is, what range are you up against here?

Your opponent generally open raises 15%, more on the BU: roughly 20-25% minimum (usually a bit more). Let's assume 22.5%.

According to the Equilator that's: 55+, A3s+, K8s+, Q9s+, A5o+, K9o+, QJo

As you can see, there are a lot of hands missing which perhaps aren't top of the pile equity wise but should certainly be raised as well. These include:

44-, 45s+, 46s+, A4o-

You can keep tinkering with this range as you wish.

The question now is, what's your opponent holding on the flop? He 4-bets 10%, this is more an average value and not overly aggressive. He'll fold to a 3-bet 59% on average. So we would be at 31% of his open raising range.

You can work with this 31%, even if you could argue that he will call more often; especially against your suspected light 3-bet in the blind defence, coupled with the advantage of acting in position.

Nonetheless, you also need to consider that Villain will not open raise as much or as loosely from any other position. There are lots of hands that he simply cannot call profitably.

What is this 31%?

0.31 * 22.5% range = approx. 7%

In this way we come to an assumed range (assumed because we can't know exactly which hands this Villain will now call):

77+, AJs+, KQs, 87s, 76s, 65s, AQo+

How does this help you out? You can draw two conclusions:

Preflop:

Equity analysis
Board
	Equity	Win	Split	Loss	Hand
Player 1	48.84%	42.93%	11.82%	45.25%	77+, AJs+, KQs, 87s, 76s, 65s, AQo+
Player 2	51.16%	45.25%	11.82%	42.93%	AKo

You 3-bet postflop for value.

Postflop:

Equity analysis
Board	7 4 4
	Equity	Win	Split	Loss	Hand
Player 1	60.87%	53.37%	15%	31.63%	77+, AJs+, KQs, 87s, 76s, 65s, AQo+
Player 2	39.13%	31.63%	15%	53.37%	AKo

Even though you haven't hit anything, you're in a really good position. After all, you have over 39% equity. Do you want to just check/fold a hand like this?

At this point you could say "no, of course not!" What options do you have for continuing to play your hand despite A high? This point will be considered in the next columns, here we're looking at equity analysis.

Equity dependencies

One thing should be clear: the basic message is certainly not that you generally have just over 40% equity with overcards in a 3-bet pot.

It is the case in the instance above, however it goes without saying that there are many factors which affect your equity.

The strength of your hand
The opponent's range
The flop

To get a sense of what overcards may be worth in special cases, one factor has been altered in each of the three following examples.

The strength of your hand

One range you may have in your 3-bet range could be:

KQ+, ATs+, AJo+

Consider a hand at the lower boundary, use AJo for this and consider the situation above again:

Preflop:

Equity analysis
Board
	Equity	Win	Split	Loss	Hand
Player 1	62.28%	60.29%	3.99%	35.72%	77+, AJs+, KQs, 87s, 76s, 65s, AQo+
Player 2	37.72%	35.72%	3.99%	60.29%	AJo

As you can see, your equity has fallen drastically. This gives rise to the statement: your 3-bet with AJo cannot be classified as a value 3-bet in this case.

Postflop:

Equity analysis
Board	7 4 4
	Equity	Win	Split	Loss	Hand
Player 1	76.71%	72.9%	7.63%	19.47%	77+, AJs+, KQs, 87s, 76s, 65s, AQo+
Player 2	23.29%	19.47%	7.63%	72.9%	AJo

Yes, that's right, you've lost a good 16% equity compared to AK. With 23% equity, you're already in an area where hands don't absolutely have to be played.

While you can probably assume implied odds with AK, with AJ you have rather reverse implied odds to worry about on the river.

You should take three things with you from this example:

Overcards aren't just overcards.
You can see why AK is so significant (despite having the nickname Anna K.).
You can see why dominating plays an important role in No Limit Hold’em.

The opponent's range

Now let's change the opponent but you're still holding AK. We're leaving out calling stations on purpose, simply because we don't want to explain too much here. What such a loose passive player will open raise and call to 3-bets is much too diffuse and can hardly be evaluated as concentrated.

That's why we focus on a rock.

(13 / 10 / 1.5 / 68 / 8) (VPIP / PFR / AF / ft3-bet / 4-bet)

We assume a steal of approx. 15-19% from this opponent on the button, so let's say 17%.

55+, A4s+, K9s+, QTs+, A8o+, KTo+

This Villain will call your 3-bet to 24%:

0.24 * 17% = approx. 4%

66+, AKs

We modify this range, as a player like this won't tend to speculatively call too many pocket pairs or even suited connectors.

99+, AQs+, AKo

Where do you stand now against this range?

Preflop:

Equity analysis
Board
	Equity	Win	Split	Loss	Hand
Player 1	56.87%	46.28%	21.17%	32.55%	99+, AQs+, AKo
Player 2	43.14%	32.55%	21.17%	46.28%	AKo

It's difficult even preflop to describe the 3-bet as a value bet. Still, with AK you always have something like a semi-bluff 3-bet. You generally have passable equity, however you'll rarely be a firm favourite against a range (even in the first example you only just have 51% against a loose range).

Postflop:

Equity analysis
Board	7 4 4
	Equity	Win	Split	Loss	Hand
Player 1	69.2%	58.00%	22.39%	19.61%	99+, AQs+, AKo
Player 2	30.80%	19.61%	22.39%	58.00%	AKo

30% isn't a lot, still, it's better than nothing. Your equity will naturally drop here, as your opponent is holding fewer speculative hands and fewer dominated hands.

The flop

Last but not least you need to consider the flop (only in terms of equity, not playability). The initial flop is good for you as the board is already paired.

However:

Equity analysis
Board	J 7 6
	Equity	Win	Split	Loss	Hand
Player 1	63.46%	56.87%	13.18%	29.96%	77+, AJs+, KQs, 87s, 76s, 65s, AQo+
Player 2	36.54%	29.96%	13.18%	56.87%	AKo

This doesn't make a massive difference. 3% isn't an awful lot in this case, there's hardly a board where you'll lose a lot of equity. In this spot you'll always face this Villain with a reasonable initial position.

Finally, another comparison between a good spot and a bad spot for you:

Spot 1 is mentioned above, you have approx. 39% equity on the flop here.

Now the bad spot:

EXAMPLE 2:

PartyPoker $25 NL Hold'em (6-handed)

Stacks & Stats
UTG ($25)
MP ($25)
CO ($25)
BU ($25) (13 / 10 / 1.5 / 68 / 8) (VPIP / PFR / AF / ft3-bet / 4-bet)
Hero ($25)
BB ($25)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A , J
3 folds, BU raises $1.00, Hero raises to $3.50, 1 fold, BU calls $3.50

Flop: ($7.25) T, 8, 5 (2 players)

Equity analysis
Board	T 8 5
	Equity	Win	Split	Loss	Hand
Player 1	84.18%	83.59%	1.19%	15.22%	99+, AQs+, AKo
Player 2	15.82%	15.22%	1.19%	83.59%	A J

If you compare these spots you can see they are worlds apart! While you were well in the running in the first example, in example 2 you can generally only get fat -EV spots if you pull out a big play postflop.

» SUMMARY

We've only considered your equity here. You should take some things with you: hand, opponent and board are the elementary factors to take into account.

As you've seen, hand strengths and your opponent's range contribute to the elementary parts considered. The board itself doesn't greatly influence your equity.

Perhaps you're now beginning to see the point of this column. You can't just claim you can play "overcards in 3-bet pots" then implement them stupidly. That won't get you very far. The old poker saying "it always depends..." is more than justified in spots like this, as the differences can be massive.

In addition, don't forget that it's only your equity on the flop. You also need to estimate your fold equity, your outs and your possible implied or reverse implied odds for the remainder of the hand.

You're acting in 3-bet pots out of position here, that can be very expensive. That's why you should pay attention to uncertain spots and never fall into standard plays.

In the next part you'll learn about more problems with these spots. Using different opponents, we'll slowly prepare how you can act in these situations.

LINKS

Related articles:

Overcards in 3-Bet Pots (2) - General Observations
Overcards in 3-Bet Pots (3) - Possible Plays as a Preflop Aggressor
Overcards in 3-Bet Pots (4) - Possible Plays without Initiative