The Semi-bluff
Introduction
In this article
- Why semi-bluffs should be a part of your game
- The importance of position
- How to react to a check/raise
This article will focus on a powerful weapon (that can easily backfire) in your poker arsenal, the semi-bluff.
Semi-bluffs should be a part of every good poker player's repertoire. But before you begin incorporating them into your game, you need to understand how they work to avoid having them backfire. So what exactly is a semi-bluff? When can you make one and why should you do so? What kind of opponents do you want target with semi-bluffs? These are the questions to be answered in this article.
What is a semi-bluff?
There are, more or less, three main types of bets:
- Value bets - these are made when you think you are ahead and want to get more value for your hand (and also to protect).
- Bluff bets - these are made when you think you are behind, but can win the pot by making your opponent fold the better hand.
- And the third kind, a semi-bluff bet - these are made when you think you are behind, but think you can make your opponent fold the better hand and have good chances at hitting a helpful card (out) on a later to street and having the best hand at the showdown if you do get called.
Semi-bluffs can be defined as:
A bluff bet made with a relatively weak hand that has potential at getting better.
Whenever you decide to play a hand, raising is always more profitable than check/calling. Your bet generates fold equity and gives you a chance to win the pot directly. Remember, your opponent can't fold if you don't bet.
When should you semi-bluff?
We've already mentioned the most important aspect of a semi-bluff: the fact that your hand can still improve. Semi-bluffs can't be made on the river, since there will be no more community cards to come. A semi-bluff is, naturally, more profitable on the flop than on the turn, since you have two more chances to hit on the flop, and only one more chance on the turn.
You can only semi-bluff opponents who can lay down a hand. Fold equity is a key component of a semi-bluff, as you will see later in the article. If you think your opponent wants to go to the showdown no matter what, there is no point in semi-bluffing.
Semi-bluffs can be made in and out of position. The main advantage of being in position is that you have the choice between betting and taking a free card. Semi-bluffs are made out of position more often, simply because you will opt to check instead of semi-bluffing more often when in position.
What kind of draws can be played as semi-bluffs? Flush and open-ended straight draws are obviously good hands to semi-bluff with. But even a hand like A
7
can have 5 outs on a K 9 7
board.
This is a typical semi-bluff hand. If you bet, you do so because you think your opponent will fold, or that you can improve your hand on a later street. It would be rather bold to assume you are ahead and can get value from weaker hands.
What do you want to accomplish with a semi-bluff?
First and foremost, you want to make your opponent fold. You know your hand could improve, but the fact of the matter is that you're behind. When your opponent folds, he often does so with a better hand. You want your opponent to make a mistake and let you win the pot with a weak hand that has no showdown value at the moment.
PartyPoker $25 NL Hold'em (6 handed)
Stacks & Stats
MP ($25)
CO ($25)
UTG ($25)
BB ($25)
SB ($25)
Hero ($25)
Pre-flop: Hero is Button with 2 , 3
3 folds, Hero raises to $1.00, SB calls $1.00, 1 fold
Flop: ($2.25) A, 5, 8 (2 players)
SB bets $1.00, Hero raises to $4.25, SB folds
SB shows [5 6
]
You raise your opponent's donk bet. You have a flush draw + gutshot, which gives you a number of outs for the best hand. Your raise is, therefore, not a pure bluff raise, but a semi-bluff raise. You'd like to take the pot down directly, but could improve on later streets if your opponent doesn't fold.
Things play out beautifully in our example. Your opponent folds the better hand (middle pair). Your semi-bluff was a success.
This would not have been possible had you simply called your opponent's donk bet and hoped to hit an out on the turn. You would effectively be staying in the hand with the second best hand. Remember! Your opponent can't fold if you don't bet.
Aside from the fold equity you generate, you have the chance to improve your hand. If you hit an out on a later street, you will have the better hand (and be playing for a large pot).
PartyPoker $25 NL Hold'em (6 handed)
Stacks & Stats
MP ($25)
CO ($25)
UTG ($25)
BB ($25)
SB ($25)
Hero ($25)
Pre-flop: Hero is Button with 2 , 3
3 folds, Hero raises to $1.00, SB calls $1.00, 1 fold
Flop: ($2.25) A, 5, 8 (2 players)
SB bets $1.00, Hero raises to $4.25, SB calls $4.25
Turn: ($10.75) 4 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $8.00, ...
We see the same situation as in the last example. This time, however, your semi-bluff on the flop gets a call.
One of your 12 outs arrives on the turn. You bet for value and to protect your hand after your opponent checks. This is where your semi-bluff from the flop can pay off big. With a little luck, your opponent will think he is good with his middle pair + gutshot and will call your value bet. If he has a strong hand, like a set, you will probably be able to stack him.
You can buy free cards with an aggressive move in position. This is particularly effective when you can hit a fair number of outs, but don't think a 2nd barrel on the turn will be producing positive results. You semi-bluff on the flop in order to check behind on the turn.
PartyPoker $25 NL Hold'em (6 handed)
Stacks & Stats
MP ($25)
CO ($25)
UTG ($25)
BB ($25)
SB ($25) (35/3/0.8/34/287) [VPIP/PFR/AF/WTS/Hands]
Hero ($25)
Pre-flop: Hero is Button with 2 , 3
3 folds, Hero raises to $1.00, SB calls $1.00, 1 fold
Flop: ($2.25) A, 5, 8 (2 players)
SB bets $1.00, Hero raises to $4.25, SB calls $4.25
Turn: ($10.75) K (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks
River: ($10.75) 4 (2 players)
SB bets $3.00, Hero raises to $10.00
We'll take our example one step further. This time you neither succeed in forcing your opponent out of the hand, nor do you hit on the turn. You did, however, take the initiative by semi-bluffing on the flop.
You now have 2 choices: You can semi-bluff again, or take a free card and hope to hit on the river.
As we said, the fold equity you generate is a key component in your semi-bluff. A very loose opponent, such as our SB, with a high WTS (Went to Showdown - 34) is not likely to fold, which means you generate very little fold equity. Your hand also has 0 showdown value at the moment. If you bluff again, get called, and don't improve on the river, you will only have two choices left: firing a 3rd barrel and giving up the hand.
To put it mathematically: You have app. 1:1 odds on the flop. You can expect to hit an out about 50% of the time.
Your odds on the turn are 3:1, meaning you will only improve about 25% of the time. This, combined with the fact that you cannot generate much fold equity, convince you to simply check behind on the river.
Things work out well for you. Your opponent makes a small block bet, which you re-raise for value.
We are basically talking about making a move that will confuse your opponent and leave them in the dark with regard to your strategy, playing style and hands/hand ranges.
Deception is a part of poker. Semi-bluffs are a great way to deceive opponents and make it more difficult for them to get a good read on you. This means you don't only bet with a strong hand, but also with marginal hands and draws.
When you do this, it becomes very difficult for your opponent to put you on a hand. You would probably get paid off by a number of hands in our example, such as a pair of aces, two pair or even a set.
Judging by the way the hand has been played, your opponent will never put you on a straight with 2 3. If he has a strong hand, it's quite possible that he will put his entire stack in the middle.
PartyPoker $25 NL Hold'em (6 handed)
Stacks & Stats
MP ($25)
CO ($25)
UTG ($25)
BB ($25)
SB ($25) (35/3/0.8/34/287) [VPIP/PFR/AF/WTS/Hands]
Hero ($25)
Pre-flop: Hero is Button with A , K
3 folds, Hero raises to $1.00, SB calls $1.00, 1 fold
Flop: ($2.25) 4, 2, T (2 players)
SB bets $1.00, Hero raises to $4.25, SB folds
The situation has changed, but you are still facing the same opponent with the same hand (5 6). Once again, you semi-bluff on the flop. You have 6 outs for your 2 overcards and can give yourself an additional out for your backdoor flush draw.
The difference this time, is that you are actually ahead with your A high. So wouldn't you prefer a call to a fold?
The answer is no. The flop is very draw heavy. You may very well be ahead with AK, but you need to protect. Your opponent's hand may seem pretty weak, but a 3, 5, or 6 on the turn would put him in the lead. All in all, he has 10 outs against you. A seven on the turn would give him 14 outs for the river. You semi-bluff on the flop to protect your hand and to make your opponent pay for his draw.
You've seen how a semi-bluff can influence the development of a hand in a number of ways. We saw an example (2) in which you chose not to fire a 2nd barrel on the turn (since your fold equity was too low), but rather to take a free card.
A semi-bluff on the flop can open the door for a 2nd barrel on a scare card on the turn:
PartyPoker $25 NL Hold'em (6 handed)
Stacks & Stats
MP ($25)
CO ($25)
UTG ($25) (13/6/0.7/23/652) [VPIP/PFR/AF/WTS/Hands]
Hero ($25)
SB ($25)
BU ($25)
Pre-flop: Hero is BB with J , 7
UTG calls $0.25, 4 folds, Hero checks
Flop: ($0.60) 7, T, 2 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.50, UTG calls $0.50
Turn: ($1.60) A (2 players)
Hero bets $1.35, UTG folds
You're not looking to raise a very tight UTG limper pre-flop. On the flop, you hit 2nd pair and are out of position. You don't have the greatest hand, but do have 5 outs for trips, two pair, or a backdoor straight, and bet.
Your opponent calls and a scare card shows up on the turn. You give yourself high fold equity, since he will hardly ever limp with Ax UTG. You play bet/fold and buy the pot.
You should be getting an idea of what semi-bluffs are all about by now. Your chances of winning the pot are better when you bet than when you passively check/call. The important things to consider when semi-bluffing: the strength of your draw, your opponent, and the street you are on (flop or turn?).
We will now look at the kinds of semi-bluffs you can make, including examples with multi-way pots.
PartyPoker $25 NL Hold'em (6 handed)
Stacks & Stats
MP ($25)
CO ($25)
UTG ($25)
BB ($25)
SB ($25)
Hero ($25)
Pre-flop: Hero is Button with A , K
3 folds, Hero raises to $1.00, SB calls $1.00, 1 fold
Flop: ($2.25) 3, 7, 4 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero raises to $1.75, SB raises to 6$, Hero...?
A standard pre-flop situation: you raise from the BU and get one caller. You hit the nut flush draw on the flop and have two overcards for top pair top kicker.
You contibet after your opponent checks. Your A high could be good and you want to protect. You also have 15 outs for the best hand if you do get called, which won't necessarily be the case, since you can generate a fair amount of fold equity with a bet.
This time, however, your opponent check/raises. Your opponent is an unknown and you can don't really know what to think of his move. You have three options: fold, call, or raise. Any raise would have to be a push, since you would be investing 2/3 of your stack with a standard raise.
You don't want to fold; your hand is simply too strong. Your third option: calling. Be aware that you then need to hit on the turn. If you don't improve and your opponent pushes, you will be getting poor odds and only have one more chance to hit.
If you do hit, your opponent might get scared and won't pay you off. He won't like seeing an A or a K and you won't get much value from weaker pocket pairs. Your best option in this situation is, therefore, pushing.
This is, of course, a semi-bluff in every sense of the word, since you can be pretty sure you are behind with A high when facing a check/raise (but not always, as you will soon see).
Now that you are leaning towards an all-in push, it's time to ask yourself which hands your opponent will call with. Let's take a closer look at his range.
You might be up against a hand like 88+ or 7x. He wants to know where he stands with his hand, but probably won't call a push. AA/KK can be ruled out rather safely due to the pre-flop action. You can hit a number of outs to beat such a hand. With 15 clean outs against QQ-88, you are even favored to win. A hand like A7 would rob you of a few outs, but you would still have 12 left.
Your opponent could also have a drawing hand; there are a lot of draws showing on the flop. The good news is you are way ahead against all flush and straight draws (except 7x). This is the ideal range to go all-in against.
This would be the worst case scenario. You could be an underdog facing two pair, a set or even a completed straight.
Consider the possibilities and how you would play a made hand on this board. You wouldn't necessarily give up AA to an unknown on such a draw heavy flop and would be favored to win against an overpair or drawing hand. Now assume you are up against a strong made hand. Your drawing hand is stronger than AA would be on this flop. A K has 8-9 outs for a flush; AA would only have 2 outs for a set.
After taking your opponent's entire range into account, we can determine that pushing in this situation will usually be profitable, since you will usually be ahead. You also generate decent fold equity with your semi-bluff and would be happy to win the pot with A high on the flop.
Do not, however, start thinking that two overcards + flush draw is a great hand to push all-in with every time you hit it on the flop. Take a look at another example to get a better understanding of when semi-bluffing is profitable:
PartyPoker $25 NL Hold'em (6 handed)
Stacks & Stats
MP ($25)
CO ($25)
UTG ($25)
BB ($25)
SB ($25)
Hero ($25)
Pre-flop: Hero is Button with K , Q
1 fold, MP calls $0.25, CO calls $0.25, Hero raises to $1.50, SB calls $1.50, 1 fold, MP calls $1.50, CO calls $1.50
Flop: ($6.25) 6, 7, 8 (4 players)
SB bets $4.00, 1 fold, CO raises to $12.50, Hero...?
Once again you have two overcards + flush draw on the flop, but your hole cards aren't quite as strong as in the last example.
Facing three opponents doesn't have you thrilled, either, especially after the CO raises the SB's donk bet. You're in a tough spot.
You theoretically have three options, but there would be little sense in calling, as it would only commit you to the pot. You can push, which would be a clear semi-bluff, since you cannot expect to be ahead with K high, or you can fold.
Remember, one of the key components of a semi-bluff is fold equity. There's no way the CO is going to give up his hand after having put half his stack into a 4 handed pot. He would also be getting 4:1 odds if you push. What is he supposed to fold?
Right now, your outs are the only thing you can count on. Think back to the ranges we discussed in the first example. You are much more likely to be facing a strong made hand than a draw or overpair in this example than the last, given the amount of strength the CO has shown.
Facing two opponents is always harder than facing just one and the action on the flop is a sign that both of them are very interested in staying in the hand. It would be pretty naive to think they are both on drawing hands and that you can give yourself outs on your overcards.
The only thing you can bank on is your flush draw, but that only gives you 8 outs against a set. Another wouldn't give you the nuts, either. You should give up the hand and fold. Semi-bluffing will not be profitable, since you cannot generate any fold equity.
We will now take a look at a few examples of situations in which you can semi-bluff and determine whether or not doing so will be profitable in the long run. We will assume you are facing an unknown in these examples.
PartyPoker $25 NL Hold'em (6 handed)
Stacks & Stats
MP ($25)
CO ($25)
UTG ($25)
BB ($25)
SB ($25)
Hero ($25)
Pre-flop: Hero is Button with 5 , 7
3 folds, Hero raises to $1.00, SB raises to $2.00, 1 fold, Hero calls $1.00
Flop: ($4.25) 3, 7, Q (2 players)
SB bets $3.00, Hero...?
You try stealing with 75s, but it doesn't work. You are getting good odds to call the min raise, though, so you stay in the hand.
The SB makes a standard contibet after you hit middle pair + flush draw on the flop.
Now you have to ask yourself if a semi-bluff will be profitable in this situation. The SB can make loose raises when defending his blind and the min raise is a sign that he is a weak player. Of course, he could be slowplaying a monster. You can definitely generate some fold equity, but it's impossible to say exactly how much.
You can give yourself a number of outs. You have 14 outs against a strong made hand like AA, KK or AQ (aside from the flush draw you could hit 5/7 for two pair/trips). QQ is the only hand that has you in a tough spot, as you would then only have outs for the flush draw.
You can definitely raise. Your opponent will fold in a lot of cases and you can improve (or take a free card if he checks) on the turn when he calls. You will have to call if he pushes your raise, even though you're not in an ideal situation.
By raising to $10, you would be getting 3:1 odds in the case of a push. You would only need 6 outs to call and you have them no matter how you discount.
PartyPoker $25 NL Hold'em (6 handed)
Stacks & Stats
MP ($25)
CO ($25)
UTG ($25)
Hero ($25)
SB ($25)
BU ($25)
Pre-flop: Hero is BB with 4 , 5
UTG calls $0.25, 2 folds, BU calls $0.25, SB completes $0.25, Hero checks
Flop: ($1.00) 3, 6, T (4 players)
Sb checks, Hero bets $1.00, 1 fold, BU raises to $3.00, 1 fold, Hero...?
A typical problem for oop semi-bluffs: You hit a strong draw on the flop in an unraised pot and bet. A good decision?
You know you need to be able to generate fold equity for a semi-bluff to work. The question is, can you really generate enough fold equity in a 4 handed pot? This is a hard question to answer when facing unknowns. Playing check/call would certainly be a decent alternative.
After the BU raises your semi-bluff and all other opponents fold, you are left with three options: folding, calling or semi-bluffing again.
What do you expect to gain semi-bluffing again? You're basically betting on your fold equity and 8 outs for a straight. You don't know which hands are in the BU's raising range, but his pre-flop play (limp) makes a pocket pair (and set) or an overpair likely. You can basically rule out a bluff, especially in a 4 handed pot, and there aren't any other draws showing on the board.
You will need to hit an out if you 3-bet. You would have to call a push, which would bring a lot of variance into your game.
Can you fold? You're getting 2.5:1 odds with 8 clean outs on a rainbow flop. Folding would be too weak, since you are pretty sure you're opponent is on a made hand.
That leaves you with calling, which is a profitable decision given the implied odds. Of course, you might have trouble getting more money into the pot on the turn if you improve; a donk bet might give away your hand and a check might induce your opponent to do the same and play for pot control. Check/raising would be even more obvious than a donk bet, but you would at least win one more turn bet.
Another important aspect when semi-bluffing: the street you are on. A semi-bluff is always more profitable on the flop than on the turn, since you have two chances to improve instead of one. This, however, doesn't mean you can't semi-bluff on the turn. A scare card can, for example, present a fine opportunity for a semi-bluff. You can also semi-bluff when the turn card significantly improves your hand (and when you can generate fold equity!).
PartyPoker $25 NL Hold'em (6 handed)
Stacks & Stats
MP ($25)
CO ($25)
UTG ($25)
BB ($25)
SB ($25)
Hero ($25)
Pre-flop: Hero is Button with Q , J
3 folds, Hero raises to $1.00, SB calls $1.00, 1 fold
Flop: ($2.25) 9, 8, 2 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1.75, SB calls $1.75
Turn: ($5.75) 3 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $4.25, SB folds
You hit a gutshot + overcards on the flop, but should do some discounting. You contibet after your opponent checks and get called. Then you hit a nice card on the turn. It certainly won't scare the SB and it gives you even more outs for a flush draw.
You can win unimproved by betting if you can generate enough fold equity. You could, of course, take a free card, but you should show aggression and bet if you think your opponent will fold a medium made hand. You can make a big value bet if you get called and hit a flush or straight on the river. And if you only hit an overcard for top pair, you can still expect to get to the showdown for free.
Conclusion
These examples showed you what you need to consider when semi-bluffing against unknowns. You can, of course, take things to the next level when you get a good read on an opponent. Knowing your opponent's hand range lets you estimate your fold equity much more accurately, which will increase your success rate significantly.
Your win rate will increase once you learn to assess situations and make well-placed semi-bluffs based on the number and type of opponents in the hand, your position, your image, and the strength of your (drawing) hand.
Semi-bluffs should be part of your repertoire when you play drawing hands (which, by the way, is a reason why it is always more profitable to play drawing hands in position than out of position). Balancing your value bets, bluffs and semi-bluffs will make it very hard for your opponent to put you on a hand and inevitably lead him to make mistakes.
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