Protection - Defend your Hand
Introduction
In this Article
- Protecting made hands from draws
- Protection in heads-up and multiway pots
- Protecting against implied odds
Only seldom will you hold the absolute nuts. Most of the time, you'll have a made hand, which no matter how strong, can still be beat if an opponent manages to hit one of his outs. So while at the moment you are still holding the best hand, your hand can be beat by the river.
Your goal must therefore be to protect your hand. This principle is called protection and is quite simple: you bet so large an amount, that your opponent doesn't receive the correct odds for his outs.
A further goal of a so-called protection bet is to secure those parts of the pot which do not belong to you, from an equity point of view. This means you get your opponent to fold, and therefore give up whatever equity he might have had.
Protection in HU-Pots
Here's a simple example with open cards to aid your understanding:
0,50/1,00 No-Limit Hold'em (6 handed)
Preflop: Hero is BU with K
, Q
3 folds, Hero raises to $4,00, SB folds, BB (T
9) calls.
Flop: ($8,50) Q
, 9 , 2 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero ?
Almost every player would make a value bet of just under pot size here, but only a few understand what actually happens. The following will explain what makes this bet so good and why it is important. Before we can begin, we need the distribution of equity on the flop. Pokerstove delivers:
Hero: 75.8%
BB: 24.2%
Both players have an EV corresponding to their equity share of the pot:
EV(Hero) = 0.758 * 8.5BB = +6.443BB
EV(BB) = 0.242 * 8.5BB = +2.057BB
If the hand were just checked to the showdown, it would be +EV for both players. And that is exactly what Hero's bet can prevent. The entire game of poker is about spoiling profitable situations for your opposition, and here we have a chance to do just that.
Hero bets $7
The situation from the standpoint of the big blind: there are 15.5 BB in the pot and 7BB more to pay. If we assume that Hero will play check behind on the turn for pot control reasons, thereby giving BB a freecard, the EV calculation looks as follows:
EV(fold) = +0BB
EV(call) = Pot Equity * Pot - Costs = 0.242 * 22.5BB - 7BB = -1.555BB
By comparison to the +2.057BB before the bet from Hero this is an unpleasant prognosis. Our opposition must now decide either to give up the pot or make a -EV call. In this way, we force him to make a mistake if he continues to play.
Protection in Multiway-Pots
With good hands (but not monsters), you should always try to thin out the opposition in multiway pots. Here we'll explain why this principle of opposition reduction is so important:
0,50/1,00 No-Limit Hold'em (6 handed)
Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A, A
1 fold, Hero raises to $4,00, CO folds, BU (KQ) calls, SB (55) calls, BB (T8) calls.
Flop: ($16,00) K, 9, 8 (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero ?
First, we need to know the equity distribution on the flop:
Hero: 50.7%
BU: 18.9%
SB: 9.2%
BB: 21.2%
Hero is a clear favorite, but would still only win half the time in a checkdown. But what if we can bring 55 and T8 to fold?
Hero: 80%
BU: 20%
The equity from the folded hands is not divided equally between the remaining players. Whereas the underdog hand got almost nothing (1.1%), the better hand got an enormous boost from the folds (29.3%). Since we now know which situation we would like to reach, we also know what to do:
Hero bets $15
Assuming that Button calls with TPGK and SB folds his underpair, then the situation for the Big Blind is as follows: 46BB are in the pot with 15BB to pay. He clearly has a worthless bottom pair but has 5 outs to two pair+ and a backdoor straight draw. He doesn't have position and cannot hope to get a freecard on the turn.
EV(Turn) = ~5 Outs Flop * Pot - costs = (5/47) * 61BB - 15BB = -8.534BB
So the Big Blind must now decide: either he gives up his 20% equity or he makes a -EV call. This is exactly what Hero wanted (The Button is also making a -EV call here, but he can't know that).
Protection against Implied Odds
Until now, we've simplified our analysis of the situation by skirting around one of the most difficult topics in NL Hold'em: implied odds.
Assume that we have TPGK and are out drawn on the turn by an OESD. It's not very nice, but it isn't particularly expensive since we can fold our TPGK against action (not only the straight will beat us, but also any better top pair, two pair, or set).
But what if we have a set? We'll believe ourselves to be ahead often enough that we won't just call, but raise instead. And it will oftern happen that our entire stack is shoved to the middle. Our ten outs against the straight are then comforting, but the situation remains clearly -EV despite this.
The salient point is: A call from an OESD can be -EV against TPTK but +EV against a set because of the high implied odds!
To make this clear, I'll present two examples. Villain will draw until the turn with his OESD and must therefore calculate his implied odds versus Hero.
0,50/1,00 No-Limit Hold'em (6 handed)
Preflop: Hero is BU with A, K
3 folds, Hero raises to $4,00, SB folds, BB (JT) calls.
Flop: ($8,50) K, 9, 8 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $7, BB ?
Villain: For simplicity's sake I'll make the implied payoff against TPTK to be around 15$. (This assumes Hero is able to fold to a check-raise or something like it if, say, a queen shows up on the turn!)
EV(Fold) = +$0
EV(Call) = 8 Outs Flop * (Pot + Implied) - Costs = (8/47) * ($22,5 + $15) - $7 = -0.62BB
Even the implied odds don't yield a large enough payoff for Villain's call on the flop.
0,50/1,00 No-Limit Hold'em (6 handed)
Preflop: Hero is BU with K, K
3 folds, Hero raises to $4,00, SB folds, BB (JT) calls.
Flop: ($8,50) K, 9, 8 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $7, BB ?
Villain: Assume Villain hits his draw on the turn and it comes to an all-in. Both players had a normal stack (100 BB) before the hand, so on the turn and river there will be another 2*89 BB in the pot. Hero still has 10 outs to a full house or quads.
EV(Fold) = +0BB
EV(Call) = 8 Outs Flop * [36 Outs Turn * (Pot + Heros Stack) - 10 Outs Turn * (own All In + Flopcall)] - 39 Outs Flop * $7
EV(Call) = (8/47) * [(36/46) * ($15.50 + $89) - (10/46) * $96] - (39/47) * $7 = +$4.56
Against a set, knowing that a hit will take the opponent's whole stack, an OESD is +EV in this pot. One possibility for Hero to hinder this +EV suckout is an overbet on the flop. Of course, there is the question of whether you're hurting yourself more than you're helping, since in the end you have a monster and you want to be paid off by worse hands. Basically, you can't defend properly against such suckouts in HU pots.
Things are often different in multiway pots:
0,50/1,00 No-Limit Hold'em (6 handed)
(All players around 100BB deep before the hand.)
Preflop: Hero is BU with 3, 3
UTG raises to $4,00, 2 folds, CO calls, Hero calls, SB folds, BB calls.
Flop: ($16,50) K, Q , 3 (4 players)
BB checks, UTG bets $12, CO calls, Hero raises to $45
In this situation, Hero can (and must!) protect adequately against a flush draw of OESD, even if the implied odds include his whole stack. Here is the EV calculation for UTG or CO if one of them has the nut flush draw (the BB has worse odds since he'll have to call any re-raise cold):
BB folds, UTG folds, CO: A9; 85.5BB in the pot, 33BB to pay, both players with 51BB remaining, Hero calls an all-in on the turn with his set.
EV(Fold) = +0BB
EV(Call) = 8 Outs Flop * (37 Outs Turn * (Pot + Heros Stack) - 10 Outs Turn * (own All In + Flopcall)) - 39 Outs * $33
EV(Call) = (8/47) * [(37/47) * ($85.50 + $51) - (10/46) * $84] - (39/47) * $33 = -$12.20
So here Hero was able to protect against the implied odds of the flush draw. The reason for this is just as simple as it is illuminating: when it's Hero's turn, the pot is already large enough that a re-raise causes a decisive decrease in the implied odds.
Any thought of scaring off worse hands should be banished. (In no case should Hero merely call here!)
Summary
The protection bet is probably the most important tool in NL Hold'em. It allows for the direct manipulation of the pot equity for the opposing hands for our own benefit. Protection bets are the only way to prevent being outdrawn in +EV.
This is a difficult topic to understand completely, so here are a few rules of thumb that can take you far:
- The most important thing for strong hands in multiway pots is the elimination of opponents!
- Slowplay is only recommended with absolute monster hands (ones that cannot be outdrawn).
- Very strong hands that would payoff the opposition if sucked out should be raised as sharply as possible.
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