Bluffs (4) - River
Introduction
In this article
- Which bluffing options you have on the last street
- Against which opponents a bluff may be a good move
- What you have to pay attention to
In the last article of our series on bluffs, you have finally arrived at the river. The hands have been made, someone wins, someone loses, nothing can change your hand. But this doesn't automatically mean that the river is an easy street to play. You can still use the opportunity to force a better hand out of the pot by bluffing.
The river card has been dealt, but that doesn't mean that you or your opponent are going to make it to the showdown.
What has happened so far?
This is the first question you are faced with: You are on the river without a good made hand and have to ask yourself why you went that far in the first place. There could be three main reasons for this:
You already realised on the turn that you will not have the best hand often enough. However, you decide not to bluff on the turn, but to wait for the river to make your bluff. Instead of floating the turn you could, for example, check behind in order to float the river or even bluff raise your opponent's river bet.
Alternatively, you could call on the turn in order to float the river. These are two options you have on the turn, the bluff call and the bluff check, which have already been discussed in the previous article.
The second reason why you went to the river could be a busted draw. There are different reasons why you decided to call or check on the turn, and you knew you had several good outs up your sleeve. Unfortunately, the river didn't bring any of these outs and you ended up with a hand that doesn't have any showdown value. This would be a good reason to bluff.
The last possibility is that there was a chance you might be ahead when you were on the turn and you therefore played passively (you called or checked). However, the river brings a card that you don't like at all. This spot is rather dangerous. If the river card changes your opponent's hand strength (i.e. if it improves his hand), he will usually not be willing to fold.
It is extremely difficult to tell if your opponent has hit a possible middle pair or something similar. This would be a hand that beats you, but that would have to fold when confronted with a lot of action. You would need specific reads to draw conclusions here.
Showdown theory
In particular reasons number two and three require a thorough analysis of your hand strength on the river. What could be in your opponent's hand range and could you be ahead?
On the turn, you usually ask yourself if you could play your hand as a semi-bluff. You have to choose between a bluff, a semi-bluff and a free card. On the river, however, you have to ask yourself whether or not your hand could actually still be the best hand at the table every now and then.
There are many hands that do have showdown value and therefore don't have to be turned into a bluff. However, you have to look at the play of the entire hand here and ask yourself what your opponent might have. Your intention behind a bluff is always to force a stronger hand out of the pot. If you can win the showdown without a bluff often enough, it is not necessary to make one.
Let's look at three examples:
PartyPoker $100 NL Hold’em (6 handed)
Stacks & Stats
UTG ($100)
MP ($100)
CO ($100)
Hero ($100)
SB ($100)
BB ($100)
Preflop: Hero is Button with A
, 2
3 folds, Hero raises to $4.00, 1 fold, BB calls $4.00
Flop: ($8.50) K
, 9, 3
(2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $5.75, ...
Turn: ($20.00) 4(2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $14.00, ...
River: ($48.00) J
(2 players)
BB checks, Hero...
Will you ever be ahead here? No.
Hardly any draws were possible on the flop, even gutshots, such as JT or QJ, would have improved on the river at the very latest. Your opponent seems to have a hand with showdown value and plays way ahead / way behind.
When playing against an unknown player, you don't necessarily have to bluff. It is a fact, however, that you will usually lose the hand if you check behind.
PartyPoker $100 NL Hold’em (6 handed)
Stacks & Stats
UTG ($100)
MP ($100)
CO ($100)
Hero ($100)
SB ($100)
BB ($100)
Preflop: Hero is Button with A , 2
3 folds, Hero raises to $4.00, 1 fold, BB calls $4.00
Flop: ($8.50) K, T, 2 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $5.75, ...
Turn: ($20.00) A(2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $14.00, ...
River: ($48.00) 3(2 players)
BB checks, Hero...
Will you ever be ahead here? Sometimes.
Your opponent plays check/call again and it is difficult to judge what he might have. Possible are a small , perhaps a small flush or a middle pair.
Reason three from above applies here. On the turn you thought your hand might be ahead, but things don't look very fortunate for you on the river. A hand such as 6 5, for example, which might have been slowplayed, is now almost worthless.
You should be very cautious here and think twice about bluffing. There is no guarantee that a will fold here. Will better two pairs fold? Hard to answer. You should go to the showdown with your two pair - you can never know if a better hand will ever fold or not.
PartyPoker $100 NL Hold’em (6 handed)
Stacks & Stats
UTG ($100)
MP ($100)
CO ($100)
Hero ($100)
SB ($100)
BB ($100)
Preflop: Hero is Button with A , 2
3 folds, Hero raises to $4.00, 1 fold, BB calls $4.00
Flop: ($8.50) 5, 6, 2 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $5.75, ...
Turn: ($20.00) 6(2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $14.00, ...
River: ($48.00) 5(2 players)
BB checks, Hero...
Will you ever be ahead? Yes.
Although you only have ace high this time, you may very well be ahead against Villain's range. There are a lot of busted draws out there, among them flush draws and straight draws. You might also be ahead against over-cards and you split against Ax hands with a better kicker.
The only hands left to consider are small pocket pairs, but you even have 44 and 33 beat now. You only have to be worried about hands such as 77+, but there is no way of knowing if they will fold if you bet. You should clearly check behind here, and you will usually be the winner of the showdown.
Options on the river
You have learned so far that it is important to pay attention to three aspects:
- Could I sometimes be ahead on the showdown?
- What hands could my opponent have?
- Can my opponent fold better hands?
Which options do you have if you want to bluff on the river?
- 3rd barrel
- Bluff donk bet (river float OOP)
- Bluff check/raise
- River float
- Bluff raise
PartyPoker $100 NL Hold’em (6 handed)
Stacks & Stats
UTG ($100)
MP ($100)
CO ($100)
Hero ($100)
SB ($100)
BB ($100)
Preflop: Hero is Button with A , 2
3 folds, Hero raises to $4.00, 1 fold, BB calls $4.00
Flop: ($8.50) K, 9, 3 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $5.75, ...
Turn: ($20.00) 4(2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $14.00, ...
River: ($48.00) J(2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $27.00, ...
This could be seen as the continuation of the example above. You will never be ahead on the showdown, so you can only choose between folding your hand (if you don't think your bluff will be successful often enough) or make a bluff 3rd barrel.
Specific to your opponent, you have to make estimations about his range (does he play QQ/TT/9x here?) and evaluate whether or not he will fold these hands to a 3rd barrel.
We will not illustrate the maths in this article. You have to make simple calculations for bets and raises, which you can find in the previous articles. The formulas don't change on the river.
It is important to make sure that your opponent is not a calling station. If he is, even the 2nd barrel wouldn't be very clever. Take into account his fold to CBet River, which is the most useful stat here, as well as standard stats such as Went to Showdown and River-AF.
If your opponent is generally rather passive on the river but has a high WTS stat, this indicates that he is often in check/call mode.
The 3rd barrel is rather dangerous. Your decision to make one has to be made quite early, you learned this in the first few articles. When you make a continuation bet, you already have to consider making a 2nd or 3rd barrel as well. Of course the action and the board will influence your decision, but you should take those moves into consideration as early as possible.
Often, a 2nd barrel only makes sense if it is followed by a 3rd barrel.
The board is almost secondary because the river card will not change much. However, especially when playing passive opponents who are out of position and want to see a cheap showdown, over-cards can be very well used as scare cards.
If the opponent will really often put you on a hand that you try to sell with the help of the over-card is another topic. Keep in mind, though, that he will often only have a marginal hand himself and therefore can't call.
If middle pairs get called down, over-cards on the turn and the river can very well be used as bluff cards. In the end, your opponent also has to ask himself what hands he could still beat. Either you had a strong hand, or you bluffed with over-cards.
PartyPoker $100 NL Hold’em (6 handed)
Stacks & Stats
UTG ($100)
MP ($100)
CO ($100)
Hero ($100)
SB ($100)
BB ($100) (20/15/1.8/24/50/43/35) (VPIP / PFR / AF / WTS / foldtoCbet Flop/Turn/River)
Preflop: Hero is Button with 4 , 5
3 folds, Hero raises to $4.00, 1 fold, BB calls $4.00
Flop: ($8.50) T, T, 6 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $5.75, ...
Turn: ($20.00) K(2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $14.00, ...
River: ($48.00) A(2 players)
BB checks, Hero...
A good spot!
You bet on the flop with the intention to get many small pocket pairs to fold with a 2nd barrel. This isn't successful despite the favourable turn card. The river brings the ace.
Villain only has two options: He traps with Tx or 66, or he has a weak made hand (medium pocket pairs) that he now has to fold.
PartyPoker $100 NL Hold’em (6 handed)
Stacks & Stats
UTG ($100)
MP ($100)
CO ($100)
Hero ($100)
SB ($100)
BB ($100) (21/17/2.8/26/55/40/20) (VPIP / PFR / AF / WTS / foldtoCbet Flop/Turn/River)
Preflop: Hero is Button with 6 , 6
3 folds, Hero raises to $4.00, 1 fold, BB calls $4.00
Flop: ($8.50) K, 4, 3 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $5.75, ...
Turn: ($20.00) 4 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $14.00, ...
River: ($48.00) T (2 players)
BB checks, Hero...
A bad spot!
The 2nd barrel is already worthy of discussion, but since the board is drawy, a bet for free showdown will be thin, but justifiable.
On the river, however, you should clearly check behind. Is there any better hand that could fold here? Flush draws and straight draws bust, you are ahead against them. Good made hands, such as Kx, will check/call too often. Your opponent simply doesn't seem to like folding his hands on the river.
There is no point in bluff betting here. Too rarely will Villain have 77+, call down over two streets just to give up on the river. He will also realise that many draws have busted.
PartyPoker $100 NL Hold’em (6 handed)
Stacks & Stats
UTG ($100)
MP ($100)
CO ($100)
BU ($100)
SB ($100)
Hero ($100)
Preflop: Hero is BB with K , Q
3 folds, BU raises to $4.00, 1 fold, Hero calls $4.00
Flop: ($8.50) 4, 9, 6 (2 players)
Hero checks, BU bets $5.75, Hero calls $5.75
Turn: ($20.00) 6(2 players)
Hero checks, BU checks
River: ($20.00) A(2 players)
Hero bets $13.00, BU...
Spots like this will not occur all too often. Out of position without the initiative is not a dream spot, but it just cannot be avoided in many cases.
Preflop you were in the big blind and only called KQs, a 3-bet would have been possible as well. On the flop you decide to check/call with over-cards and a backdoor flush/straight draw. You check again on the turn and so does the button.
On the river you realise that you don't have a good made hand. However, you think you will get fold equity if you donk bet. Many pocket pairs would have to fold, and so would hands such as 45, 9x. You also give your opponent weaker hands such as Kx or possible busted draws (57, 78, flush draws etc.), but you can hardly ever check/call against them. In this case, you only bet to collect the dead money.
Again it is difficult to use all stats here. You should put your focus on the turn: Which hands does Villain check behind on the turn? Does this often mean he will fold or does he do this for pot control and bluff induce?
A high Turn-AF means that many good hands would bet again. Besides the Went-to-Showdown stat, you can also take into consideration how often your opponents folds to bets on the river. From the correlation between these stats, you can conclude if Villain likes to trap or play way ahead / way behind, or if he will fold his hand in many cases.
A high Turn-AF, low WTS and high fold-to-Riverbet stat would be ideal.
You generally don't want to end up in a spot like this often. However, it is not a mistake to defend passively preflop when you are in the blinds, and subsequently check/call on the flop. You can't change the fact you will be out of position and without the initiative on later streets here. If your hand strength decreases or if it does not improve, respectively, the only option you have to win the hand is to bluff.
The small advantage compared to the turn donk bet is that you have received more information about Villain's hand as a check behind on the turn is not really a sign of strength. On the other hand, your line is a plausible choice and you might be able to sell your opponent a more credible story. Check/call flop / donk turn looks like a bluff. If you wait until the river before you start any action, you could still have a monster hand that had initially planned to check/raise the turn.
Whether or not the ace in the above example is a scare card is not relevant. Villain might have Ax and would therefore obviously not find a fold. Just like with any river bluff, however, neither over-cards nor arriving draws will do any harm. Don't forget: you don't want to get any top pairs to fold here, but marginal hands, which simply can't call in many cases.
Of course you shouldn't play like this in multiway pots, and this spot will not occur very frequently anyway. If anything, you could have called a flush draw or a straight draw on the flop in a multiway pot, expecting large implied odds. This plan failed. Also, you should not make any river bluffs against several opponents here, because it is hardly possible to estimate how much fold equity you will get.
PartyPoker $100 NL Hold’em (6 handed)
Stacks & Stats
UTG ($100)
MP ($100)
CO ($100)
BU ($100) (28/12/1.1/29/30) (VPIP / PFR / AF / WTS / foldtoRiverbet)
SB ($100)
Hero ($100)
Preflop: Hero is BB with 4 , 4
3 folds, BU raises to $4.00, 1 fold, Hero calls $4.00
Flop: ($8.50) A, 3, 3 (2 players)
Hero checks, BU bets $5.75, Hero calls $5.75
Turn: ($20.00) 7(2 players)
Hero checks, BU checks
River: ($20.00) J(2 players)
Hero...
Not a good spot.
You peeled on the flop. This might make sense, but you didn't have to do that. The turn should be a fold then. The same is true for the river; your opponent is not very aggressive and will check behind with many weaker hands (this is what you were hoping for when you played check/call on the flop).
No one can tell if any better hands will fold here. The player might very well play Ax; if he will always bet his hand on the turn is difficult to predict. If he can fold medium pocket pairs is another question. Your line should be check/fold.
PartyPoker $100 NL Hold’em (6 handed)
Stacks & Stats
UTG ($100)
MP ($100)
CO ($100)
BU ($100) (19/16/2.8/22/47) (VPIP / PFR / AF / WTS / foldtoRiverbet)
SB ($100)
Hero ($100)
Preflop: Hero is BB with 2 , A
3 folds, BU raises to $4.00, 1 fold, Hero calls $4.00
Flop: ($8.50) 4, 9, 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, BU bets $5.75, Hero calls $5.75
Turn: ($20.00) 5(2 players)
Hero checks, BU checks
River: ($20.00) 8(2 players)
Hero...
A decent spot.
The flop doesn't have to be discussed: you called, in part because you thought you might win the hand even though you are out of position. You didn't just call because of possible outs.
You should put your plan into practice on the river. Although your opponent seems to be a rather aggressive player, he signalled weakness on the turn, just what you were hoping. You can even sell a number of hands now, a few straight draws have completed, the flush has completed, and your line could still indicate a monster (also theoretically possible are over-pairs, 99, 4x that had planned to check/raise the turn).
The opponent will trap less frequently, in most cases he will have small pocket pairs, SCs (also possible are hands such as 87, 56) or broadways. It is unlikely that AT+ will find a call on the river in this situation.
The WTS stat of your opponent is rather low, he often folds to river bets. If you really want to look for spots like that, you have found one right here.
PartyPoker $100 NL Hold’em (6 handed)
Stacks & Stats
UTG ($100)
MP ($100)
CO ($100)
BU ($100)
SB ($100)
Hero ($100)
Preflop: Hero is BB with K , Q
3 folds, BU raises to $4.00, 1 fold, Hero calls $4.00
Flop: ($8.50) 4, J, 6 (2 players)
Hero checks, BU bets $5.75, Hero calls $5.75
Turn: ($20.00) 6(2 players)
Hero checks, BU checks
River: ($20.00) 7(2 players)
Hero checks, BU bets $13.00, Hero raises to $35.00, BU...
Could this be the ideal line? You are about to get yourself into very rocky waters. In most cases, there are two opposing characteristics about this spot:
On the one hand the line looks extremely strong, on the other hand you will often not be able to sell anything.
A prerequisite for playing this line is usually a check behind of your opponent on the turn. Should Villain barrel, there is generally no point in check/raising. Firstly, the pot is already extremely large, making it unlikely that there is any hand that Villain would bet/fold. Secondly, the line looks very strong if Villain barrels three times. Remember not to put your opponent on a bluff too often: A player who barrels three times usually has a good hand and considers himself committed on the river.
Again we have two main problems: Which hand could Villain still call here? Which good made hand would you play this way?
It is a common standard that a check behind on the turn can be compensated for by making a light value bet. The principle is: "Check behind turn / bet river is rarely a bluff!".
However, it is just as rarely a really strong hand. In the above example, hands such as AJ, KJ, QJ, Jx, TT-88 are possible. You have to ask yourself: Will you get such hands to fold if you donk bet?
Most of the time your opponent has marginal hands on the turn, he won't hit anything good often enough. What's his plan? Check the turn, mainly for pot control and bluff induce; call the river or value bet lightly with the intention to bet/fold if your opponent checks. You will have had thoughts like that before, but if your opponent check/raises (although it is very unlikely), you have to ask yourself: what in the world could he have?
You will know yourself if you tend to light folds or light calls in such spots. In most cases, your opponents won't think about the situation that much. If they plan to bet/fold, they will.
Looking for an opponent, you are now entering a grey zone: you don't want the smartest opponent, you don't want him to read you and call with TT in the example above. However, you don't want him to be a fool either, who always calls too much. Calling stations are not good for such a play.
You mainly look for weak regs, particularly TAGs and LAGs, ideally multi-tabling players. An evaluation whether or not they will fold better hands depends on your reads ond your observations. To name particular stats here would not make much sense because such a spot is much too specific to be generalised.
You do ask yourself if this line is necessary at all. If you have considered a donk bet on the river, you have to realise that a check/raise will create a little more equity (however, it does have to work out more often). And it isn't always the case that you can't sell anything good.
Particularly when you put your opponent on marginal hands and a scare card appears on the river, this play can make sense. You may very well sell completed straight draws and flush draws, you can even attack top pair hands in these spots.
In any case, you should be cautious with such moves and ask yourself what you would do if you were Villain and had a weak top pair without a kicker or a middle pair. If you don't think he is brave enough to call, and you think you have a solid image, you should consider this move.
PartyPoker $100 NL Hold’em (6 handed)
Stacks & Stats
UTG ($100)
MP ($100)
CO ($100)
BU ($100) (19/16/2.8/22) (VPIP / PFR / AF / WTS)
SB ($100)
Hero ($100)
Preflop: Hero is BB with 5 , 5
3 folds, BU raises to $4.00, 1 fold, Hero calls $4.00
Flop: ($8.50) T, 3, 2 (2 players)
Hero checks, BU bets $5.75, Hero calls $5.75
Turn: ($20.00) 9(2 players)
Hero checks, BU checks
River: ($20.00) A(2 players)
Hero checks, BU bets $13.00, Hero...
A possible spot.
It is clear that you will be ahead very rarely. Sometimes your opponent might bluff 44 or suited connectors if he doesn't hit, but in most cases he has medium pocket pairs, Tx, perhaps T9 (unlikely after his action on the turn), Ax, rarely JJ+. Which hands can he call after your check/raise?
He will rarely have a very strong hand (that's why T9 is unlikely), because he would have bet the turn with it. Therefore you are only worried about the flush and perhaps a strong two pair (e.g. A9, A3, A2). Two pairs won't find an easy call either.
If you can categorise this player as a masstabler, it is more than likely that almost all better hands (except for the flush) could fold.
PartyPoker $100 NL Hold’em (6 handed)
Stacks & Stats
UTG ($100)
MP ($100)
CO ($100)
Hero ($100)
SB ($100)
BB ($100)
Preflop: Hero is Button with J , T
2 folds, CO raises to $4.00, Hero calls $4.00, 2 folds
Flop: ($9.50) 8, 9, 4 (2 players)
CO bets $5.75, Hero calls $5.75
Turn: ($21.00) 4(2 players)
CO checks, Hero checks
River: ($21.00) K(2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $13.00
Finally you can act in position. Many of the considerations about donk bets on the river also apply here. However, there are two differences: Your position gives you an informational edge and such a spot occurs much more frequently.
If your opponent checks the turn and the river, he probably doesn't have anything. In this case, this "nothing" is still a stronger hand, such as A high, Q high, small pocket pairs etc. There are hardly any weaker hands except 56 and 67, you will therefore close to never win a showdown with this.
If Villain didn't have anything, he could bluff barrel on the river. If he has Kx, he could value bet. That's why his repeated check could be interpreted as surrendering a better hand. In these spots you can cheaply take down the pot with a weaker hand.
The river float is the alternative to a turn float. In the article about turn bluffs, the bluff check on the turn has been discussed. The line simply looks stronger than a float on the turn, because your opponents will less frequently expect a bluff.
Important for your decision is also which cards appear.
There's hardly anything you can sell in this spot on the turn. It is hard to say if a float will work here. It might, because you are holding a semi bluff. You have outs and need less fold equity.
Your opponent will very rarely buy the 4. That's why you wait until the river before you start any action, after the CO checks again, your time has come.
You could also do this in multiway pots because a check/call is even less likely here. However, these spots are very rare, which is why we won't construct one here.
PartyPoker $100 NL Hold’em (6 handed)
Stacks & Stats
UTG ($100)
MP ($100)
CO ($100) (19/16/2.8/22) (VPIP / PFR / AF / WTS)
Hero ($100)
SB ($100)
BB ($100)
Preflop: Hero is Button with 9 , 8
2 folds, CO raises to $4.00, Hero calls $4.00, 2 folds
Flop: ($9.50) A, 9, 4 (2 players)
CO bets $5.75, Hero calls $5.75
Turn: ($21.00) 5(2 players)
CO checks, Hero checks
River: ($21.00) J(2 players)
CO checks, Hero...
A bad spot. Your 3rd pair is not a fantastic hand. Which better hands could fold here? Ax? KJ? Rather unlikely. Keep the showdown theory in the back of your head. Sometimes you will still be ahead with middle pair. When you are behind, Villain will too often be in check/call mode, particularly because the on the flop possible flush draw busts. You should check behind here.
PartyPoker $100 NL Hold’em (6 handed)
Stacks & Stats
UTG ($100)
MP ($100)
CO ($100) (19/16/2.8/22) (VPIP / PFR / AF / WTS)
Hero ($100)
SB ($100)
BB ($100)
Preflop: Hero is Button with 5 , 4
2 folds, CO raises to $4.00, Hero calls $4.00, 2 folds
Flop: ($9.50) Q, 7, 2 (2 players)
CO bets $5.75, Hero calls $5.75
Turn: ($21.00) 7(2 players)
CO checks, Hero checks
River: ($21.00) 6(2 players)
CO checks, Hero...
Here the situation is different: You will never ever be able to win a showdown.
That's why you can only fold your hand or bluff. It is a great success for you even if hands such as 89s or J9s fold here. It is more than unlikely for Villain to have Qx; he probably wouldn't have played this hand so passively. You can expect a fair share of fold equity, and you should float the river.
PartyPoker $100 NL Hold’em (6 handed)
Stacks & Stats
UTG ($100)
MP ($100)
CO ($100)
Hero ($100)
SB ($100)
BB ($100)
Preflop: Hero is Button with J , T
2 folds, CO raises to $4.00, Hero calls $4.00, 2 folds
Flop: ($9.50) 8, 9, 4 (2 players)
CO bets $5.75, Hero calls $5.75
Turn: ($21.00) 4(2 players)
CO checks, Hero checks
River: ($21.00) K(2 players)
CO bets $13.00, Hero raises to $34.00
Last but not least, we will take a look at the bluff raise on the river. Just like the rather unusual check/raise, the bluff raise is a good tool to get even good hands to fold.
The advantages compared to a turn float are evident: It looks a lot stronger, creates more fold equity, you win a light value bet from your opponent, and can sell a strong hand when you are in position.
Why should you not play 99 or 88, perhaps 4x like this if you think that Villain will often check/fold the turn (if this really is the case, the turn float would indeed have been justified)?
Villain will rarely put you on a busted draw because he probably thinks that you would semi-bluff the turn with it. He will therefore give you a strong range.
Which hands should you be worried about? Every now and then, Villain has the nuts, which he had planned to check/raise on the turn and that he wants to value bet now. That's it.
Even a hand such as Kx will often bet/fold here. Should Villain bluff every now and then, you will at least get another bet (he could bluff better hands with pocket pairs and Ax hands).
The advantages have been mentioned before. In an ideal case, you will balance these bluff lines with your value lines. If you bet the turn very frequently and generally tend to play aggressively, a turn float might make more sense. However, if you tend to play for bluff induce on the turn, you should also play your bluffs this way (or at least consider this in certain spots).
Good river cards are always helpful for this line, although over-cards aren't that important here. You would rarely raise a hand such as KQ on the river (if you don't have any specific reads). Your range is polarised towards nuts/bluffs, but a strong hand is much more likely.
If you can't sell many slow plays (in the above example, the flop was dry; if it was drawy, you would probably directly raise 88/99 more often), arriving straights and flushes help you out the most.
You can forget about this play in a multiway pot. It is much more unlikely for someone to value bet light or to bluff into several opponents.
PartyPoker $100 NL Hold’em (6 handed)
Stacks & Stats
UTG ($100)
MP ($100)
CO ($100) (40/15/1.6/29) (VPIP / PFR / AF / WTS)
Hero ($100)
SB ($100)
BB ($100)
Preflop: Hero is Button with J , T
2 folds, CO raises to $4.00, Hero calls $4.00, 2 folds
Flop: ($9.50) 8, 9, 4 (2 players)
CO bets $5.75, Hero calls $5.75
Turn: ($21.00) 4(2 players)
CO checks, Hero checks
River: ($21.00) K(2 players)
CO bets $13.00, Hero raises to $34.00
Always keep in mind: Don't bluff the fish!
Slow plays, traps, strange value lines, light calldowns - all of this is possible with these players. If your opponent might interpret your move as strength? He might, he might not. There is no guarantee that a hand such as Kx or medium pairs that were played tricky, such as QQ-TT, fold here. He will not make pure bluffs too often, so that you should refrain from making a bluff raise.
PartyPoker $100 NL Hold’em (6 handed)
Stacks & Stats
UTG ($100)
MP ($100)
CO ($100) (16/14/2.5/25) (VPIP / PFR / AF / WTS)
Hero ($100)
SB ($100)
BB ($100)
Preflop: Hero is Button with J , T
2 folds, CO raises to $4.00, Hero calls $4.00, 2 folds
Flop: ($9.50) 8, 9, 4 (2 players)
CO bets $5.75, Hero calls $5.75
Turn: ($21.00) 6(2 players)
CO checks, Hero checks
River: ($21.00) K(2 players)
CO bets $13.00, Hero raises to $34.00
This opponent is good for such a play. Even though you would be expected to raise a set or two pair on the flop, the turn completes many draws that are good for you. You might just check against a tight opponent on the turn in order to raise your straight or your flush on the river.
Villain appears to be quite straightforward; the only thing you have to be worried about here is that he has the straight/flush and planned to check/raise his hand on the turn.
Under normal circumstances, your opponent will have to fold everything else, and your move only has to be successful in 50% of cases.
Conclusion
As you have seen, there are numerous possibilities to win a hand unimproved. The main aspect here is to evaluate whether or not this is necessary in the first place.
Against very weak players and players who love to call, it usually isn't a good choice, against medium to very strong players the factor of balancing comes into play, and you should consider such plays more often.
Against tight players or players who don't think enough, balancing loses importance. In the last example, the raise itself is +EV. That's the kind of move you want to make.
Bluffs should be part of every good poker player's repertoire. It is rarely possible to become a good poker player without making bluffs. In which situations you can make a good bluff depends on your skill and your ability to read your opponents.
Bluff every now and then, experiment with the various types of bluffs - every mistake will take you one step further. No matter if it works out or not, discuss your plays in the hand evaluation forums... it will make you a better poker player!
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