Concepts: Protection

Introduction

In this article

• When you must protect your hand
  
• Protection in raised and unraised pots
  

The concept of protection means protecting good hands with bets and
raises. You want to reduce the overall number of opponents in the hand
and force weak draws out of the pot.

When you must protect your hand

You always have to protect your hand as well as possible when you have
reason to believe that you do, in fact, have the best hand. As a rule
of thumb you can usually make this assumption with top pair or better.
You could even be ahead with a weaker hand when you aren't facing many
opponents, but be careful - there is no sense in protecting a hand that
probably isn't ahead.

There is, of course, a catch. You don't have any control over your
opponent. If he doesn't want to fold, he won't, and there is nothing
you can do to keep him from cracking your pocket aces with a runner
runner straight on the river. But you will soon see that he doesn't
necessarily even have to fold; he is going to lose, no matter what he
decides to do.

The principle of protection

The basic principle of protection is:

Choosing a betting sequence that gives your opponent incorrect odds for his hand.

This is how you put him in a lose-lose situation. He is going to lose,
no matter what he does. If he stays in the hand hoping to improve, he
is doing it with the wrong odds, which will cost him money in the long
run. If, on the other hand, he folds, he gives up his pot equity.

Pre-flop: Hero is Button with 9 , 8
2 fold, UTG+2 calls, 3 fold, CO calls, Hero calls, 1 fold, BB raises, UTG+2 calls, CO calls, Hero calls

Flop: (8,5 SB) A , T , 6 (4 players)
BB bets, UTG+2 raises, CO folds, Hero ???

You pick up a gutshot for the nut straight on the flop. This gives your
hand, which is certainly not the best, exactly 4 outs. Your odds to
call are 11.5:2. You would have made a profitable call for 10.5:1 if it
weren't for the flop raise. You wouldn't quite be getting the 10.75:1
you theoretically need, but you can give yourself very high implied
odds with a gutshot on a rainbow board. In this case you give yourself
3 BBs. You could, of course, give yourself 2, 3, or even 4 BBs in
implied odds in this situation, but that wouldn't change much.

What is your EV? Start by assuming UTG+2 hadn't raised. Your odds of
hitting are P(Hit) 4/47 = 0.085, your odds of missing P(No hit) =
0.915. You give yourself 6 SBs in implied odds if you hit, which leads
us to:

EV (Gutshot draw: Pot size to costs) = P(Hit) * (Pot + IO) - P(noHit)*Costs
If the action in front of you had been bet and call, you would be getting 10.5:1 pot odds with an EV of:

EV (Gutshot 10.5 to 1) = 0.085 (10.5 + 6) - 0,915*1 = +0.49 SBs

Your call would clearly be profitable. Your EV would still be positive,
even if you only gave yourself 2 BBs in implied odds. But let's get
back to our example and UTG+2's raise. Your EV is after the raise is:

EV (Gutshot 11.5 to 2) = 0.085 (11.5 + 6) - 0.915*2 = -0.34 SBs

You can twist it and turn it any way you like. Even with higher implied odds, calling in this situation is not profitable.

And we haven't even considered the possibility of a 3-bet/cap behind
you if you do call, which would make the pot odds even worse. Your only
alternative is folding and giving up your 8.5% pot equity.

You've just seen how your opponent used protection to make you give up
your gutshot draw. Of course, whether or not this raise is going to
help him is another question. Everyone who learns to poker at
PokerStrategy.com has had protection drilled into them from the very
beginning. You must protect your good hands; slowplay is almost always
a mistake. When you have a good hand, force your opponents out of the
pot.

Most players stick to these rules, but you can
imagine that some of them ask themselves at some point: Why should I
force them all out? They are potential customers who might give me even
more money for my strong hand?

Let's take a look at an example of why you should forget that thought
and why trying to reduce the number of opponents in the hand is the
most profitable way to play a strong hand from a mathematical
standpoint.

Take a look at this hand with everyone playing their cards face up:
Everyone folds to MP1, a very loose player who limps in with 9 , 8.

You are on the CO with Q , J
and decide to raise to punish the loose MP1 for his limps. The very
passive BU cold calls your raise and the blinds fold. Three players see
the flop.

Flop: Q , 9 , 2.

MP1 holds 9 8.

You hold Q J.

Button holds A K .

A good flop - you will usually have the best hand. Then MP1 bets ...
And now? This should be a no brainer, you raise! Let's see why raising
is the best move.

If you enter these hands into the Equilator, you will get the following results (pot equity):

• MP1: 21 %
• Hero: 62 %
• Button: 17 %

Of course, the money in the pot isn't yours anymore after the flop, and
you will have to recalculate the yield of any further investments.

Now let's take a look at your EV in three different scenarios. There are 7.5 SBs in the pot on the flop:

• a) MP1 bets, Hero calls, Button calls
• b) MP1 bets, Hero raises, Button calls, MP1 calls
• c) MP1 bets, Hero raises, Button folds, MP1 calls

Let's take a look at the changes in pot size, pot equities, costs and EV in each of the three possible scenarios.

A) You made the fatal mistake of not raising and the pot remains 3
handed. The button may only have overcards, but with 9.5:1 pot odds,
and the fact that he closes the action, he can make a profitable call
and see the turn.

Your pot equity stays the same at 62%. The pot size is now at 10.5 SBs.
From a statistical standpoint, 10.5 + 0.62 = 6.5 SBs belong to you. You
invested 1 SB, which gives you an EV of + 5,5 SB.

B) This time you correctly raised and both opponents called. The button
even made a sound call according to the fundamental theorem of poker
with 10.5:2 pot odds, giving him an EV of (0.17*10.5) – 0.83*2 =
0.13 SBs (we won't give him any implied odds, since he isn't drawing
for the nuts and will rarely have the best hand, even if he improves.
You didn't account for MP1's 2nd flop bet, since a 3-bet/cap could also
come). This call is certainly questionable, since the button doesn't
know that he has 6 outs and will, in general, only have around 4.

The pot equities all stay the same, all players are still in the hand.
There are now 13.5 SBs in the pot, of which 13.5 * 0.62 = 8.4 SBs are
yours. After investing 2 SBs on the flop, your EV is + 6,4 SBs.

C) You successfully protected your hand and reduced the number of
opponents in the hand. The button made a strategically correct (but
according to the fundamental theorem of poker incorrect) lay down. How
does this affect the pot equities?

According to the Equilator, you now have 78%
equity. Compare this with the previous values (Hero 62%, BU 17%). You
can see that nearly all of the equity folded by the button now belongs
to you. Remember: The equity given up by players folding their hands is
not distributed evenly among the remaining players in the hand; the
majority almost always goes to the player favored to win (this is not
described correctly on pages 25 and 26 of Sklanksy's Theory of Poker).
Now it's time to do the math again: 11.5 SBs are in the pot and you
have 78% pot equity. Your EV is 11.5 SBs * 0.78 – 2 SBs = + 7,0 SBs.

This example shows the need for protection. Whether or not you want
your opponent to fold or call, is, of course, a question that has to be
answered on an individual basis. As a general rule: the lower your
opponent's pot equity, the more you want to see him call.

But this doesn't change the fact that playing for protection is always
correct. The situation we examined shows just how big of a mistake not
raising would be. It doesn't matter if your opponent calls 2 bets or
folds - that's beyond your control.

Be sure to keep in mind:

If a player folds, his pot equity is not evenly distributed among the
other players. The majority (or even all of it) goes to the player
favored to win.

One thing becomes clear: The flop raise puts you in a win-win
situation. No matter what the button does, your EV is higher after a
raise than if you do not. This should be etched in stone in the mind of
any poker player hoping to make his way up the stakes.

The best way to protect your hand

In order to protect your hand in the best way possible, you have to ask yourself a few questions on the flop:

• Could you have the best hand?
• What happened before the flop?
• Was there a pre-flop aggressor? What is your position relative to him?
• How dangerous/draw heavy is the board?

The first question is obviously to determine if
you should protect your hand at all. But as we said before, finding a
concrete answer to this question would go beyond the purpose of this
article. With that said, let's turn our attention to the other
questions.

With regard to the pre-flop action, you have to ask yourself the following questions:

• Did anyone raise?
• If no raise was made in front of you, who raised behind you?
• Are you to the left or to the right of the pre-flop aggressor?
• Are there any draws on the board? If yes, which?
• Can you put the pressure on any of these draws by confronting them with two bets instead of just one?

When you protect, you basically try to confront as many opponents as
possible with as many bets as possible in order to make them fold. A
lot of players are quick to call a single bet, but start thinking about
folding when confronted with two.

A few classic examples are gutshots and 5 outers
for two pair. Remember, your goal is to give them incorrect pot odds.
You will often ask yourself if it would be better to bet or try
check/raising. A check/raise gives you the advantage of being able to
see what the others do, but you bear the risk of giving such a draw a
free card. You should always have good reason to check/raise instead of
betting.

We will proceed by taking a closer look at a various scenarios.

Protection in an unraised pot

Unraised pots are never very large. If you think you might have the
best hand, you should bet. A small bet usually provides enough
protection against weak draws in an unraised pot. Any attempt to
check/raise an unraised pot on the flop will almost always prove
futile. If someone bets in front of you, you should raise (assuming
your hand is strong enough) and confront your opponent with two bets.

Protection in a raised pot

When you are playing in a raised pot, you need to know who the pre-flop
aggressor was (assuming it wasn't you) and pay attention to your
position relative to him.

You were the pre-flop aggressor, so you really only have one line to
play: Keep the initiative and bet. If someone bets in front of you and
you still think you have the best hand, raise.

You are directly in front of the pre-flop aggressor. Take a look at the
next example to see just how important your position relative to the
PFA is:

Pre-flop: Hero is BB with T , 9
3 folds, MP1 (TAG) raises, 3 folds, CO calls, Button calls, 1 fold, Hero calls

Flop: (8 SB) 4 , 8 , T (4 players)
Hero ???

You are to the right of the aggressor and must act directly before him: The correct line is bet.

You have to assume that the aggressive MP1 will
bet the flop if you check. Your loose opponents will call a single bet
on the flop with almost any hand, which means you won't be able to
confront any of your opponents with two bets; no one is going to call
one bet on the flop only to fold to another bet behind.

There is no way for you to protect your top pair, so you try to let the
aggressor do this for you by betting into him. A TAG could easily raise
with overcards or even a backdoor flush draw, which would mean the
other players would then be confronted with two bets and much more
likely to fold.

A bet is usually the best chance you have to protect your hand on the flop when you act directly before the pre-flop aggressor.

This time you are to the left of the pre-flop aggressor and may be able to act directly after him if you check.

Take a look at this example in which you are seated on the other side of the pre-flop aggressor.

Pre-flop: Hero is BB with J , T
2 folds, UTG+2 calls, 1 fold, MP2 calls, 2 folds, Button raises, 1 fold, Hero calls

Flop: (8,5 SB) 5 , 6 , J (4 players)
Hero ???

A rainbow flop, but coordinated enough to allow for a few gutshots.
Still, you can expect a TAG to bet with overcards. The best line in
this situation is: Check with the intent of check/raising a bet from
late position.

You can safely assume that your opponents will all check to the button,
who will then bet. You can then protect your hand by confronting the
opponents between you and the aggressor with two bets.

Any time the pre-flop aggressor is to your right and you assume he will
bet the flop, the best way to protect your hand is with a check/raise.

You are practically seated across from the pre-flop aggressor. This
type of situation occurs, for example, when you are first to act in a 4
handed pot and have an opponent between you and the PFA on both sides.

The questions is: Should I bet the flop or try to check/raise?

The answer is, as is often the case: it depends. Let's take a look at two such examples:

Pre-flop: Hero is BB with 7 , 7 .
3 folds, MP1 calls, 2 folds, CO (tight-passive) raises, Button calls, 1 folds, Hero calls, MP1 calls

Flop: (8,5 SB) 2 , 2 , 6 (4 players)
Hero ???

What do you do? Bet or try a check/raise? Your
overcards have a good chance at improving to be the best hand and you
are looking at a dry, rainbow board. You bet.

Two things: A single bet could be enough to make
your opponents fold on this board. But even more importantly, the
pre-flop aggressor is a rather passive post-flop player - you can't
assume that he will bet and allow you to check raise at all. And there
should be no need to mention that giving away a free card would be a
catastrophe.

Pre-flop: Hero is BB with 7 , 7 .
3 folds, MP1 calls, 2 folds, CO (LAG) raises, Button calls, 1 folds, Hero calls, MP1 calls

Flop: (8,5 SB) 4 , 6 , J (4 players)
Hero ???

You are in the Scenario 3 again with a pair of sevens. This time the
pre-flop aggressor is very aggressive and you've noticed him making
contibets with overcards repeatedly. The flop shows 4h, 6h, Jc. An
overcard in the playing zone and a two suited board. Not the best flop
for your sevens.

You should check and see what happens. A check/raise not only allows
you to protect by confront an opponent with two bets, it also gives you
a lot of information. You may find out you are behind and don't need to
protect your hand at all.

If MP2 checks, the PFA bets and the BU folds, you can check/raise to
push MP2 out of the hand and be heads up with the CO, who will probably
only have overcards. If, on the other hand, you check to MP2 who then
bets and gets cold called from the CO and BU, you can be pretty sure
you are behind and lay down your hand.

Here is a quick summary of the arguments for betting the flop vs. check/raising:

Flop bet:

• You aren't certain that anyone will bet at all.
• There is a good chance that an aggressive player will raise directly behind you and do the protecting for you.
• Giving away a free card would be a catastrophe.
• A single bet could be enough to make opponents fold.

Check/raise on flop:

• You are almost certain that someone close to your right will bet.
• Giving
  away a free card wouldn't necessarily be a catastrophe (rather rare
  with hands that you would want to protect with a check/raise).
• You aren't sure if you have the best hand and want to see what happens to decide whether or not your hand is worth protecting.
• The board texture leads you to believe that there are hands that would call a single bet, but fold if confronted with two.

Protection on the turn

Let's clear one thing up right away: We are talking about a very rare
situation in which you do delay your attempt to protect until you've
reached the turn. Waiting for the turn to protect is almost always a
mistake. You should ignore the chapter "When the pot is extremely
large“ on pages 163-166 of Small
Stakes Hold’em, the theory is found there is in error.

In order to explain what is meant by protection on the turn, we will look at a hand from "How good is your Limit Hold’em?“:

Pre-flop: Hero is UTG with K , K .
Hero raises, 2 folds, MP1 calls, 1 fold, MP3 calls, 3 folds, BB (aggressive) calls.

Flop: (8.5 SBs) Q , 9 , 8 (4 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, BB raises, Hero ???

Hero calls.

In this situation you really should just call the raise and wait for
the turn. You could confront the other two opponents with two bets by
raising, but they have already made one call on the flop and aren't
likely to fold after having already invested. They would also getting
at least 15:2 pot odds if you did 3-bet.

You can assume the BB will bet again on the turn, aggressive as he is.
You are in an optimal position to now confront your opponents with two
bets. If everyone calls the BB's check/raise on the flop, there will be
9.25 BBs in the pot after a turn bet. If you then raise, your opponents
will only be getting 11.25:2 pot odds, which gives them a better reason
to fold than had they been confronted with a 3-bet on the flop and
close to 8:1 odds. This is in part due to the fact that you are limited
to small bets on the flop.

This is a typical situation in which you can force a gutshot or two
pair draw out of the hand. And as we said with regard to poker theory:
If they don't fold, you can at least extract the most amount of value
for your hand, since you will usually have the highest pot equity in
this situation.

These situations are, as we said, rare and the
following conditions should be met if you are going to delay protecting
your hand to the turn:

• You don't believe any further raises on the flop would force anyone to fold due to the pot size, board or opponents in the hand.
• You are fairly certain that someone will bet the turn and put you in a position to confront the other opponents with two bets.

The last point is absolutely crucial; without that certainty, there is no sense in waiting for the turn to protect.