Bet flop, check-call turn OOP

Introduction

In this Article

• The theory behind check-calling
  
• Different types of playing
  
• Main aspects and side aspects of the check-call turn OOP

Bet Flop, check-call turn OOP

We are going to introduce a "new" line from the PokerStrategy repertoire. Different conditions have to be fulfilled in order to play bet flop check/call turn profitably. We are going to start off by talking about the theory behind this line:

The theory behind a c/c is, as far as I know, very complex. I have tried to understand the logic by looking at the theory for a long time. I think the best way to learn it is by looking at the most abstract level:

Lets assume we are on the turn and the pot is 5 BB. We have roughly 30% equity against the range of our opponent. The opponent is going to raise with a mix of drawing hands and made hands if we bet on the turn so that we can't fold to his raise. The opponent will always bet the river when he raised the turn. Since we have showdown value, we can't fold to his river bet either.

If we play bet/call on the turn we have so-called "effective odds" of 3 to 8 or respectively 3/11. As we have 30% equity, 3.3 of those 11 BB in the pot belong to us. We gain 0.3 BB profit from this hand.

What happens if we play check-call on the turn and river? We assume that the opponent is going to bet any turn and river. We now have effective odds of 2 to 7 or 2/9. 30% of 9 bets belong to us. This is an expected value from the turn onwards of 0.3*9 - 2 = 0.7 BB.

The expected value from check/calling is therefore larger than that of bet/call check/call under these circumstances.

This was all the theory behind the concept of check/calling oop on the turn with initiative on an abstract level.

This theory can't be put into practice one to one because: The way our opponent plays is dependent on whether we check or bet the turn.
Most of the time, as assumed above, he won't bet the same hands facing a check that he would raise with as well. He is going to behave differently on the river as well. He is going to bet different hands after we check/called on the turn than he would if he had raised the turn bet.
The worst is when our opponent has position on us. This means that he can, if he is a good player, adjust his betting ranges. This is a clear advantage.

Lets assume that we are playing against a good thinking TAG. How does he interpret our check on the turn oop with initiative? The following resembles what it could mean to our opponent.

1.) I want to check-raise, you better not bet.
2.) I want to see a cheap SD, you better not (semi-)bluff.
3.) I want to check-fold.

Which one of these is the most dominant one depends on the board structure. A check oop on the turn signals a mixture of one and three if the board is ragged and rainbow and signals number 2 on a coordinated board.

Basically what we achieve by checking on the turn oop is the following: We reduce the action that our opponent is going to give us and we discourage him from betting his hand. This is exactly what we want to achieve if our pot equity against the hand range of our opponent is low (but not low enough to check-fold) .

Check-calling oop on the turn is a means of taking marginal hands to showdown.

Under the right circumstances, a bet has the big advantage of creating the chance that our opponent folds a better hand. If we succeed, we steal the pot from him which we aren't entitled to take if we are looking at the equity. If there is a significant chance that our opponent folds the best hand, we shouldn't check/call on the turn. You should also consider the implied bluff: If the chance is high that the river brings a "scare card", which makes the opponent fold many better hands, you should consider betting the turn. This often happens with one suited boards.

Usually people check/call on the turn when they have a lower equity than their opponents. You should therefore assume to be the one who'd profit from a free card yourself. However we are out of position. Our opponent can therefore decide whether he wants to take a free card (or respectively let us take a free card) or not.

He is going to value bet his strong hands denying us a free card. He is going to check his marginal hands quite often and give us a free card. Once in a while, even though we signaled by checking that he shouldn’t bet into us in his own interest, he is going to bluff into us with hopeless hands.

The value we lose to his value betting hands is partly compensated by the fact that he bluffs with hopeless hands once in a while and by the free cards he is going to give us when he has a marginal hand. This means that our opponent, although he has position on us, is not going to perform as well as his pot equity suggests. For example, he won’t be able to get more than 0.4 BB if he has 70% equity on average on the turn.

In contrary: If we bet the turn, we would make our opponent fold his hopeless hands, raise his good hands for value (unfortunately we would have to call) and call down with his marginal hands. He would be able to take far more than 0.4 BB from us in this situation.

We checked on the turn and called the opponents bet. We are still unimproved on the river holding a marginal hand. We check again.

We have to keep the following in mind if our opponent is a thinking TAG: He can be pretty certain that we are holding a marginal hand after he saw us check/calling on the turn. He knows that we have the intention of seeing a cheap showdown and that we are planning on calling his river bet as well. If we consider our opponent to be this good, we have to consider that his betting range might have become too small for us to be able to call. He probably won’t bet his busted draws on the river any more.

A river bet after someone check/called on the turn quite frequently shows more strength than a river bet after our opponent raised because if we bet the turn, our opponent raises and we call, the following scenario is possible: The opponent is on a draw and semi-bluffed on the turn by raising. He thinks that we might be on a draw as well. He is therefore going to bet the river with a busted draw again.

If our opponent checks behind on the turn, it usually means one of the following:

1. He has a hopeless hand or a draw and didn’t bet the turn because he is scared of a check/raise or a check/call. He is going to fold to a river bet. He is going to bluff a lot if we check on the river.

2. He has a marginal made hand. He is going to call a river bet. He is going to make a thin value bet if we check again.

Now we have to decide whether we want to bet for value or induce a bluff. A check/fold is out of the question. The worse our hand is on the river, the more we should tend to play check/call. The stronger our marginal hand is the more we should tend to value bet the river. We have to be aware of the fact that we can make very thin value bets since we have shown a lot of weakness and our opponent is therefore going to call us with a lot of hands. There are situations in which a value bet with ace high and good kicker might be the correct more.

Check-call turn OOP in summary

• We have a marginal made hand
• We have the initiative
• The likelihood of our opponent raising our turn bet is high
• We would have to make a tough decision if our opponent raises the turn
• The likelihood of our opponent folding a better hand is extremely small

• Way-ahead-way behind situation, free cards don't hurt us
• The opponent is going to bluff a lot

Then we should check-call on the turn.

Check-calling the turn oop with initiative is a very tricky move, which I am not yet satisfied with either. You want to do either of the following with this move:

1. Make worse hands bluff.
2. Save money against better hands or avoid making an incorrect fold against worse hands.

The problem with check-calling in the wrong spots is that the opponent can make the best use of his position because he has a very easy value bet or a free showdown if we check again on the river.

Theoretically you’d have to donk or check/fold on the river quiet a few times to minimize the disadvantage of check/calling on the turn.

We are holding 88 in the SB and raise. The opponent calls. The flop is J T 7. We bet and our opponent calls. The turn is a 2. We know that our opponent likes to call the flop and then raise the turn both with made hands and draws. We therefore wouldn’t have an easy decision whether to fold or call down after the raise on the turn. Furthermore we estimate that the chance of our opponent raising is very high. We should therefore check-call.

Appendix

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