Concepts: Overcalls

Introduction

In this Article

• 3- Bet vs. Overcall
  
• When you should speculate on hitting with your overcards
  
• When its better to simply fold them
  

The word overcall can hardly describe the concept in a more concise manner. We understand an overcall to be a call after a bet and call have occurred.

Example on the river: Villain 1 bets, Hero calls, Villain 2 calls. In this case, Villain 2 has made an overcall.

Overcalls happen a lot in small and micro stakes games. You actually need a very good hand for an overcall, since it always involves two other players that you must beat. But especially in the small stakes many players tend to make overcalls against a bet even with marginal hands, whereas they will fold to a raise.

Overcall or raise?

Let's start directly with an example.

If we arrive at the river with 3 players in the game, then the following bet sequences is very probable:

• a) Villain 1 bets, Hero calls, Villain 2 calls
• b) Villain 1 bets, Hero raises, Villain 2 folds, Villain 1 calls

If Hero has the best hand here, what's the difference between these two sequences? None!
Even if Hero has the nuts here, his winnings on the river for both a) and b) are the same, that is 2BB.

Now a little more complicated:

We're on the river, the 6BB pot is 3 handed with the characters above, Hero is in the middle.

Villain 1 bets, Hero???

Assume the following:

• If Hero calls, Villain 2 will call 80% of the time.
• If Hero raises and is ahead, then Villain 2 will fold and Villain 1 call.
• If Hero raises and is behind, then Villain 2 will fold, Villain 1 will 3-bet, Hero will call and lose.

Let's assume that Hero has the best hand in 55% of all cases. Now we will calculate the expected value for the various bet sequences.

EV (Hero calls) = p(Win) * (p(William calls) * Pot1 + p(William folds) * Pot2) - p(Loss) * Costs

= 0.55 * (0.8 * 8 + 0.2 * 7) - 0.45 * 1 = 3.84 BB

The pot sizes (pot 1 and pot 2) differ by +-1, depending on whether William calls or folds. Costs are 1, since Hero pays one BB. Hero's bets aren't added into the pot since the multiplication of p(loss) with Costs ensures that we calculate Hero's net gain.

If Hero raises, the EV looks like this:

EV (Hero raises) = p(Win) * Pot - p(loss) * Costs = 0.55 * 8 - 0.45 * 3 = 3.05 BB

In this case Hero wins the 10BB pot and nets 8 BB if he's ahead but loses 3BB if he's behind.
This calculation is, of course arbitrary and artificial since all aspects have not been considered. Unfortunately for Hero we assumed that he always loses if the 3 bet is made. On the other hand, we assumed that Pete always calls the raise when Hero wins and that William makes a lot of overcalls (80% of the time) and NEVER has the best hand.
What do we learn from this?
Conditions may exist where Hero is better served by a call then a raise even if he will win the showdown most of the time.

The following will illuminate just when these conditions can be fulfilled.

When do you want overcalls?

Again the question: When is it better to build an overcall then to raise?
A few important points that will make the decision easier:

• We are not sure whether we will even beat the bettor often enough. A
  bet against multiple opponents on the river indicates great strength
  for some types of player. If we are unsure whether a raise is for
  value, then we'd rather just call. In this way we also avoid the risk
  of a 3 bet.
• The bettor could be bluffing
  If we think the bettor is bluffing, then we won't get much more out of
  him with a raise because he'll probably fold. With a call we hope to
  keep marginal hands around.
• Slowplay
  We fear that everybody (maybe even the bettor) will fold against a
  raise and hope that as many people behind us as possible will call just
  one bet.

When do you NOT want overcalls?

You should NOT speculate on overcalls when:

• You could bring a better hand to folding with a raise. There are
  situations where you can leverage the ability to confront somebody with
  2 bets on the river. If you believe you can beat the bettor but that a
  raise will cause a better hand behind you to fold, then logically you
  should not play for overcalls.
• You have a very strong hand and the pot is very large. If your hand is
  so strong that you would like to see a 3 bet then we should give our
  opponents this chance. Furthermore, we can assume that one opponent or
  other will make a cold call above a certain pot size.

  A K 7 2 or 8 8 4 Board is therefore better suited for a bluff than e.g. J 9 8 .

Examples

From theory to practice: a few examples that, in part, come from real life.

Preflop: Hero is Button with A , A
UTG+1 (loose passive fish) calls, UTG+2 (loose passive fish) call, CO (loose tricky) calls, Hero raises, Blinds fold, all Limpers call

Flop: (9,5 SB) Q , 9 4 , (4 players)
UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks,CO bets, Hero raises, UTG+1 coldcalls, UTG+2 coldcalls, CO calls

Turn: (8.50 BB) 7
UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, CO checks, Hero bets, all 3 players call

River: (12.50 BB) 4
UTG+1 check, UTG+2 checks CO bets, Hero???

Hero calls.

A classic example where hero would rather hope for overcalls than raise himself. Hero has a very strong hand and has shown a lot of strength, despite this the tricky player bets into Hero. Does he really have a 4? A raise in that case would be dire indeed, and it would often lead to a 3 bet. Is it a pure bluff? In that case a raise still doesn't make sense since a better hand will not fold and we'll just drive out marginal hands that would be enough to call for 13.5 BB (14.5BB after Hero's call). Therefore, call > raise in this situation.

Preflop: Hero is CO with A , 9
6 folds, Hero raises, Button (fish) coldcalls, BB calls

Flop: (6,5 SB) 9 , 7 , 3 , (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, Button calls, BB calls

Turn: (4,75 BB) Q
BB checks, Hero bets, Button calls, BB calls

River: (7,75 BB) 3
BB bets, Hero???

 

This example also comes from SSH where a raise on the river is recommended. An EV calculation follows (if you want to read it, check out pages 211-216 of SSH), but it is so artificial that it does not represent the facts.
We must ask ourselves: Will we beat the bettor in the majority of cases? Could a better hand fold behind us? The first is very difficult to answer, but we can take a conservative tack and assume that we are not ahead. Here there are not many bad hands that would bet into us on the river and call our raise. The answer to the second question is also a "no". It is unlikely in a typical small stakes game that a fish would fold top pair or better. Of course, Hero doesn't want to fold the 8.75 BB pot. Therefore, the correct play in this situation is:

Hero call.

Preflop: Hero is Button with T , T .
CO (unpredicatble aggro mit 68/32/1,8) openlimps Hero raises , BB (passive and rocklike) calls, CO calls

Flop: (6,5 SB) J , 8 , 4 (3 players)
BB checks, CO Bets, Hero raises, BB coldcalls, CO calls

Uh-oh. The rock called 2 cold on the flop. That doesn't bode well for us. We guess he has either top pair or a flush draw.

Turn: (6,25 BB) 6 (3 players)
BB checks, CO checks, Hero bets, both call

River: (9.25 BB) A (3 players)
BB checks, CO bets, Hero ???

Hero raises.

We aren't buying the ace from the CO. The semimaniac has 32% PFR and would probably raise any ace pre-flop. But be careful! Even if we assume that CO is bluffing (a criterion for overcalls above), this is outweighed (unlike in example 2) by the argument that the raise might bring a better hand to folding. It is very possible that the tight BB will fold a hand like KJ, QJ, J9s, since we could well have hit the ace as a pre-flop raiser. Thus, he won't want to call 2 BB cold.

A typical loose passives small stakes game:

Preflop: Hero is BB with J , 8 .
3 player call, SB completes, Hero.

Flop: (5 SB) T , 7 , 2 (5 players)
Checked around

Turn: (2,5 BB) 9 (5 players)
SB bets, Hero ???

Hero calls.

The pot is small and Hero gives his thanks for the free card that bestowed the nuts upon him. The board is rainbow and there are still 3 people behind Hero. Hero can slowplay here and hope for overcalls. The pot odds are certainly not good for the opponents here. A raise could drive away a lot of hands that would have called a bet. 

We play on:

Turn: (2,5 BB) 9 (5 players)
SB bets, Hero calls, 2 Calls and one fold behind

River: (6.5 BB) A (4 players)
SB bets, Hero ???

Hero raises.

The pot is substantially larger now, and furthermore somebody might have hit the Ace. We now hope that somebody with a Ace will call 2 bets cold. Moreover, since we have the nuts we want to give the SB or another player the chance to make a 3 bet.

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A , J

4 folds, Hero raises, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls

Flop: (10 SB) 9 , 8 , 7 (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets , all 4 players call

Doesn't look so good, we need to think about folding if we remain unimproved.

Turn: (6,25 BB) 3 (5 players)
Checked around

River: (6,25 BB) T (5 players)
SB Checks, BB bets, Hero ???

Hero calls.

The freecard helped. Still, a raise in this situation would not be sensible. If the BB bets into 4 people on the river here, he'll probably have the jack. Maybe it's a kamikaze bluff, but there a raise wouldn't help and in rare cases it could be a 6. All in all we aren't so sure we'll beat the bettor here and we'll get a split pot against a jack. It's best here to let others call one bet with their marginal hands so that you can at least get a half of them in the case of a split pot. 

It is generally sensible, in most cases, to go for overcalls with one-card straights in multiway pots on the river.

Preflop: Hero is CO with K , Q
1 fold, MP3 (LPA)calls, Hero raises, Button (TAG) 3 bets, BB calls, MP3 calls, Hero calls

Flop: (12,5 SB) A , T , 7 (4 players)
BB checks, MP3 checks, Hero checks, Button bets, BB folds, MP3 and Hero calls

With 14.5 to 1 Hero can easily draw on his gutshot and backdoor flush, even though the board is 2-suited.

Turn: (7,75 BB) 2 (3 players)
MP3 checks, Hero checks, Button bets, MP3 and Hero call

River: (10,75 BB) 6 (3 players)
MP3 Bets, Hero ???

Hero calls. 

The backdoor flush arrived but it's only the third nutflush and the K and A will kill us. MP3 is usually passive but bets into us, so he could well have a better flush. The button, on the other hand, probably has a good made hand, maybe AK. If we call, then button will often make a crying call even without a flush for a pot of 12.75 BB. He'll fold against a bet or raise, though, so that we won't get anything more out of him if we beat MP3 and he calls. But we really don't want to see a 3 bet so we won't risk one!

A hand that was posted in the forum:

Preflop: Hero is Button with J , T UTG posts a blind of $1.
UTG (poster) checks, Hero raises, SB 3-bets, 1 fold, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (10 SB) 3 , 8 Q , (3 players)
SB bets, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (6.50 BB) 9
SB checks, UTG bets, Hero raises, SB calls, UTG calls.

River: (12.50 BB) 8
SB checks, UTG bets, Hero???

"call river for overcall! perfect spot."

Even though hero hit his straight on the turn, the board is ugly; it's 3 suited and paired on the river. The SB called 3 cold on the turn (slowplaying, maybe?), and he could be sitting on a high . Still, we're not sure anymore whether we have the best hand. The pot is very large, so SB will overcall on a lot of hands. If hero is behind it is almost surely against a flush or a fullhouse and he'll get a 3 bet, which he'll then have to call because of the giant pot. It follows that hero must be ahead in ca. 66% of all cases to make a raise for value, and he doesn't have that anymore. Therefore, he should not raise here but rather speculate on overcalls. Hero calls. 

Conclusion

So you can see that there are many places where going for overcalls is better than a raise.

You should keep your eyes open, however, to recognize the situations like those mentioned here where you should not play for overcalls.