Post-flop: Basic Hand Reading
Introduction
In this article
- Theory and practice of hand reading.
- 4 basic player types.
- Betting sequencies.
Incomplete Information
In contrast to chess, where all information is known, we lack some knowledge in poker and are therefore unable to make perfect decisions. We do not know our opponent's hand and we do not know the future community cards.
Mixed Strategy
Although, like in black jack, we do not know the future cards, we can still determine probabilities for them. It is on the basis of these probabilities that we will make correct decisions. However, poker has a somewhat larger “human factor“ than black jack. Players interpret the same cards differently according to their own experience and whims, and even the same player will sometimes handle the same cards differently from before because the circumstances have changed. This may be for psychological reasons (the player is on tilt) or for tactical reasons. The latter indicates a strong player who can maintain the flexibility to adapt to changing situations.
Hand Reading
To compensate for the lack of information, a strong player will try to guess an opponent’s hand or at least a range of possible hands. This is called "hand reading." There are many indices for estimating the opposing hand. Some are derived from the profile of the individual opponent, others from the betting sequence and number of players.
The Categories
There are several basic traits one can use to profile an opponent. Here, we will use gaming strength, looseness, aggression, and deceptiveness. Any community member who follows our advice will have a tight-aggressive playing style. Such a player will fold all trash hands in the pre-flop and will spend more time out of the hand than in it. This time should be used to observe and categorize the opposing players. One should be in the position to characterize every opponent as one of four basic types: tight-aggressive, tight-passive, loose-aggressive, or loose-passive. Advanced players use analysis software like PokerTracker and PokerAce to project data on their opponents directly onto the table. This is very helpful as it reduces the effort needed for observation, enabling one player to maintain games at three or four tables simultaneously. Information about analysis software can be found in the technology forum.
Gaming strength
Gaming strength is the most important criterion to consider when selecting a table. It is well known that the money comes from the weak players. We would most prefer a weak and passive player, but a weak aggressive player (aka a maniac) is also interesting, since he will put his chips against ours in a bluff. If we get called by a weak player on the flop, we can bet the turn without too much worry as long as we're heads-up with him and have an unimproved AK. His call on the flop could just mean "I have two cards."
Looseness
A player is called loose if he plays too many starting hands and calls post-flop with low-valued cards. A slightly loose player has a flop-seen rate of over 20%, and over 25% is loose. A rate above 30% will impair the results considerably. A tight player will go to the showdown in about 35% of all cases. A showdown rate of over 40% is an indication of a very loose player. It is difficult to place this type of player's hand exactly. He might play a 65 offsuit from the pre-flop and get a straight on the flop without it being immediately noticeable. This is actually a small advantage of looseness. It's much easier to guess the hand of a tight player, since he wouldn't be playing unless he had a legitimate hand.
Aggression
PokerTracker measures aggression with an aggression factor. The AF is calculated with the formula AF= Bets + Raises/Calls. A value over 1.5 is aggressive, under 1.0 is passive, although strong players with a value under 1.5 may be considered passive; however, this is rare. Much caution should be taken if a passive player plays his hand strongly (raises), however if an aggressive player does the same it might mean a free card raise or a semi-bluff on the basis of a high value draw.
Raising standards
Raising standards are synonymous with pre-flop aggression. A good player raises 8-12% of his hands. Fewer than 8% is too passive, more than 12% too aggressive. Many players are aggressive the whole way through, but there are some who raise a lot before the flop and then continue in a more passive fashion. One must make fine distinctions here. Caution should be taken on an raise from an early position by a reserved player, that is, one who raises 5% of his pre-flop hands. AQ is a clear fold in this case or in the case of an unknown opponent. However, an opponent who raises 20% of his hands is clearly overreaching. In this case, we should re-raise with AQ and usually also with KQ.
Deceptiveness
There is basic split amongst players; those who play straightforward and those who get tricky. Aggressive players are often quite deceptive and less straightforward. They play their strong hands weak and their weak hands strong. Regardless, there are also passive or moderately aggressive players who would normally never raise on a bluff, but who might risk a bluff bet against multiple opponents after a scary flop or a scare card. Thus, aggression and deceptiveness are two distinct traits. Usually, one should play straightforward in a low limit area with a lot of callers (one must produce the best hand on the river) whereas a little deceit is more effective with higher limits. In this games there are fewer opponents on the flop and these are in more of a position to part with a weak hand. After all, one can only bluff a person who has developed a sense for danger.
The four basic player types
tight-aggressive
The style of winning players! They play few hands, but when they do and hit a flop, they know how to be aggressive and defend their hand. They use the semi-bluff, and in special cases a pure bluff, with fewer opponents left and when the time seems right.
tight-passive
The so-called "Rock“ is actually too timid for poker. They play a straightforward and uncreative style and are the easiest of all types to read. Since they only play quality cards and fold so often, one cannot win much from them. They're winning players in loose-passive games, since they capitalize on the obvious blunders of their opponents. They don't stand a chance against stronger players, though. When they do raise, they only win small pots since they're easy to dodge. They often find themselves in the lead, but lack the gusto to bet their hands. Hence, they lose value and sometimes even a pot since they leave weak draws in their hands. They are easy to bluff and don't defend their blinds with enough vigor.
loose-passive
The "calling station," as loose-passive players are known, is the favored opponent of all winning players. They play far too many hands and go too far in the post-flop with weak cards. Like the rock, they fail to extract much value from their good hands. Sometimes they land a bad beat and cause some short term consternation. These feelings of frustration are unjustified. Handle your calling stations well; you want to play with them. Don't try to bluff them, and just make bets. One should bet with a top pair and medium kicker, since calling stations will often take a middle or bottom pair all the way to the river.
loose-aggressive
This is the type with the largest need to prove themselves. They play too many hands and raise far too much. They want to win every pot possible and view folding as a type of defeat. For this reason, it is not easy to bluff them out of a hand. One should give serious consideration to a call-down even with a mediocre hand, even if one would have folded against a rock with the same hand. They often get caught in a pure bluff this way. Particularly extreme specimens are called maniacs. They raise often with complete trash. If one has position on a maniac, it is possible to play passable hands with a 3-bet to isolate the mabian (isolation play). One often ends up with a stronger hand and position.
The Betting Sequence
Preflop-Action
Unraised Pot
One can typically exclude premium hands in an unraised pot, since these will usually be raised pre-flop. Strong opponents will usually have middle and small pairs, suited connectors, suited aces, suited high cards (KTs) or high cards (KJ). Very weak players could have almost anything.
Raised Pot
In a raised pot one can surmise that the raiser and the cold caller (except for the big blind) have good hands. In these cases one must not be afraid to go against them, if they consist of T 8.
TheLimp-Raise
The limp-raise occurs when a limper re-raises a raiser. This usually indicates a slowly played monster (AA or KK). Suppose a player limps, we raise, everybody else folds, and the limper re-raises us. If we don't hit the flop with AK or AQ, we should leave the hand. Surely one who limp-raises has AK or AKs and therefore has the upper hand on us. It would be unfortunate to give up an AK hand against another AK hand, but it can't be helped. In the majority of cases one is faced with a pocket pair. What will happen if one hits the king with AK? Against AA and KK one is already down. Fold? I cannot reccomend that in all cases. It's inhumane to part with a top pair/top kicker hand. I would usually turn to a call-down policy in this case. There are many people who would limp-raise with AK, AKs, QQ or JJ. A maniac might even try it with medium pairs, since placing the raiser at AK is within the bounds of his optimism. If the limp-raise is from a very passive player, however, there is every reason to feel discomforted. In our top pair/top kicker example, we could raise on the flop and check our weapons after a re-raise. After a call, go with "check turn, call river", and if he checks the river then "check turn, bet River." The danger of "bet Turn, check River" is that he could also check-raise the turn with AK. All of this is valid for heads-up matches. A limp-raise against many opponents almost always means AA or KK. Exceptions are maniacs and tilters, who simply want to feed the pot.
At this point, it's also worth discussing the limp-raise in an active context. I reccommend not limp-raising with a KK. The danger from all the ace hands is too great. A further danger comes from the blinds. I've seen KK get busted by a freak 2 pair out of the blinds all too often. The only situation in which I would limp out of early position with KK is when a bunch of loose-aggressive players who raise every pot are sitting behind me. A limp-raise attempt with AA is a little more plausible, since it's not threatened by overcards. A good opportunity might look thusly: the table is very tight, pre-flop raises from the early position are much respected, and one hasn't had a good hand in a while. In this case, the danger is that one will only get 1.5 small bets.
Flop-Action
Since only small bets are at stake on the flop, the action here should not be taken so seriously as on the more expensive streets. One often hits some tactical maneuvers here: probe bets, bluff or semi-bluff bets, free card raises, and value bets/raises with strong draws (there may be exceptions where no such skirmishing occurs, but then there are also no made hands).
Raises
If a solid player raises on the Flop, it commands respect.
Checkraises
A check-raise is a stronger play than a raise in position. It gets even more respect.
Lead Bets
If a player bets (out of position) against more than one person, it indicates a strong hand.
Button Bet
An aggresive player always bets on the button when the bid is checked through to him. Vulnerable hands like top pair-no kicker can benefit from this. Suppose I have Q3s in a small blind and a flop of QT7. A lead bet would be problematic, since one would lose against a bigger Q and cannot shake gutshot draws. It's best then, to check once and see what happens. Against an early better, fold immediately. But if our aggressive button better is checked through it's a good opportunity for a check-raise, since it's then possible that one has the best hand and that every weak draw will be confronted with a 2-bet.
Cold Call
If a player calls a raise on the flop cold (2 bets at once), there are a few possibilities:
- He has a strong draw (flush draw, OESD).
- He is a weak player and calls with a weak draw, e.g. with a gutshot.
- He calls a top pair with a weak kicker (happens more often with weak players).
- He's slowly playing a monster to raise on the turn.
And now for the hand reading process: if there is no way to make a flush or straight, one can eliminate the possibilities i) and partly ii). If it is a strong player, eliminate ii) and iii).
Turn-Action
In contrast to the flop, "strong" truly means "strong" on the turn. Early position bets or check-raises should be particularly respected. Under special circumstances, however, there is also some deception on the turn. This occurs against aggressive players in heads-up (and probably also three-handed) situations with high limits check-raise bluffs and free showdown raises are part of a professional's arsenal.
Number of opponents
The number of opponents is an important strategic element. If one only faces a single or pair of opponents, it is possible to take a properly aggressive tack and build bluffs or semi-bluffs into one's strategy. The opponents will often not hit the flop, since an unpaired starting hand will only make a pair on the flop a third of the time. Against four or more players, these kinds of bluffs are senseless since at least one will probably make good with the flop. Against many opponents, one should only play the good hands and fold the bad ones. The line between aggressive and conservative strategies is drawn at 3 players; though one must make this decision on a case-by-case basis.
For hand reading, a multi-way pot is protected from bluffs if one opponent plays his hand strongly. He can usually be trusted in this case. However, if the pot is two- or three-handed then the possibility of a bluff cannot be discounted.
Over the course of time we will list some examples here. Examples of good reads posted in this thread will be incorporated into the article if I believe them to be valid in general.
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